The “For Your Consideration” ads are officially abound. But if you want to be a real Oscarite insider you’ll call them FYCs from now on… or not. So, it's officially on.
I’m almost finished with my super early predictions. I’ve got the tech awards here – or “Craft Awards”, as you know from my thoughts on the subject last year. This year is shaping up interestingly. I think the techs will be a little easier. There is more traditional Oscar-fodder. Last year there was a dearth of period and fantasy work leaving films like The Devil Wears Prada and The Queen to pick up Costume nominations. Even if a film like Elizabeth: The Golden Age flops with every critic (which it did) it should still get some love from the craftsy people.
This time last year I managed to correctly predict an average of 2 ½ future nominees correctly in these categories.
Without further ado…
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. ATONEMENT
2. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
3. THERE WILL BE BLOOD (This 1,2,3 is beginning to look familiar)
4. SWEENEY TODD
5. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
6. LUST, CAUTION (4,5, and 6 will be critic proof in a few of these categories)
7. THE KITE RUNNER
8. AMERICAN GANGSTER
9. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
10. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
Other Contenders: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, I’m Not There, Into the Wild, Youth Without Youth, 3:10 to Yuma
BEST EDITING
1. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
2. AMERICAN GANGSTER
3. ATONEMENT
4. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
5. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
6. THE KITE RUNNER
7. MICHAEL CLAYTON
8. I’M NOT THERE
9. INTO THE WILD
10. SWEENEY TODD
Other Contenders: Lions for Lambs, Youth Without Youth, Love in the Time of Cholera, 3:10 to Yuma, In the Valley of Elah
BEST ART DIRECTION
1. SWEENEY TODD
2. ATONEMENT
3. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
4. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
5. LUST, CAUTION
6. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
7. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
8. 300
9. ACROSS THE UNIVERSE
10. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
Other Contenders: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, 3:10 to Yuma, Hairspray, Beowulf, Stardust
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
2. SWEENEY TODD
3. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
4. ATONEMENT
5. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
6. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
7. LUST, CAUTION
8. HAIRSPRAY
9. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
10. GOYA’S GHOSTS
Other Contenders: 3:10 to Yuma, Becoming Jane, Stardust, Leatherheads, 300
BEST MAKEUP
1. STARDUST
2. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
3. 300
4. SWEENEY TODD
5. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
6. HAIRSPRAY
7. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
8. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
9. EASTERN PROMISES
10. ATONEMENT
Other Contenders: There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Spider-Man 3
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. BEOWULF
2. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
3. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
4. TRANSFORMERS
5. HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
6. 300
7. SPIDER-MAN 3
8. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
9. ATONEMENT
10. STARDUST
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. SWEENEY TODD
2. TRANSFORMERS
3. ATONEMENT
4. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
5. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
6. BEOWULF
7. HAIRSPRAY
8. THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
9. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
10. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Other Contenders: American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, Into the Wild, The Kite Runner, Lust, Caution
BEST SOUND EFFECTS
1. RATATOUILLE
2. BEOWULF
3. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
4. TRANSFORMERS
5. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
6. THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
7. 300
8. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
9. ATONEMENT
10. HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
Other Contenders: Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild, 3:10 to Yuma
I’ll try to be back sooner than later with a brief look at the “Other kinds of movies” categories and music.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Eenie Meenie Minnie Oh!
Predicting the Supporting Actor categories is nearly impossible this early in the game. While there is rarely more than one leading performance in any given film, there can be dozens in the Supporting arena. So, let’s say there are 300 eligible films released in the year. 200 of those are not even to be considered (of the Deuce Bigelow, documentary, or indie that played in one theatre variety). Of the 100 left, 50 have already been released and only maybe 20 of them will be remembered. You’re now down to 70. (Only about 30 of these will even have a Lead Actress.) That’s a manageable number. Prestige factor, previous record of the lead actor, and early buzz will get you down to a solid 20 or 30.
But let’s take an example of a prestige movie coming out that hasn’t been seen – Charlie Wilson’s War. We can safely put Tom Hanks in the lead category and guess that is where they will put Julia Roberts (1 Male Lead and 1 Female Lead). That leaves Amy Adams, Emily Blunt, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Ned Beatty as the other name actors. While we know all of these actors are capable of great work, we have no idea the size or challenge of the parts they are going to play.
Last year, looking at Little Miss Sunshine from afar, it looked like Steve Carrell or Greg Kinnear might be nominees, but it was Alan Arkin who had the scene-stealing role. If you had an average of two possibilities in each category from the 70 films we are considering, that is 140 possibilities for each category. So, I’m giving myself five extra “other contender” choices.
So, my point with all this is… take these predictions with a grain of salt… or five.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Javier Bardem – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – One of the first shoe-ins of the year. Not a single review of this film doesn’t rave about his performance. It’s just a matter of category for him. But since he’s the villain (I believe) they’ll probably put him in supporting… unless they do it like Hopkins for Silence of the Lambs (the 22 minute “Lead” performance).
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Pure hearsay. They say he’s got a meaty role... in a Mike Nicholls film. Sounds good to me.
3. Casey Affleck – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD – Like I said, he’s having a break out year. It’s hard to tell at this point which film he may be recognized for. I don’t see a double nomination at this point.
4. Paul Dano – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – This is a hard one to assess at this point. From the trailers it looks like a very showy role – as a small town evangelical preacher. But it’s hard to tell if he really pulls it off, or its too difficult a role for so young an actor. If he pulls it off, he’ll be in here.
5. Hal Holbrook – INTO THE WILD – There are a lot of short supporting roles in this film, but this is the one that has gotten the most attention. And they love an older actor who does their best work in years. And he’s really old.
6. Alan Rickman – SWEENEY TOOD – Again, it’s hard to tell when the film hasn’t been seen yet. But you’ve got to figure, Alan Rickman in a period musical just sounds like a winner.
7. Ethan Hawke – BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD – The buzz for this one is growing. The critics say Hawke and Phil Hoffman do some of their best work ever.
8. Tom Wilkinson – MICHAEL CLAYTON – He’s a lawyer who goes crazy and calls himself “Shiva, the God of Death”. Awardsville stuff.
9. John Travolta – HAIRSPRAY – With very low expectations, people were very surprised at just how convincing Travolta was as a singing, dancing fat woman. (I’m not sure why… other than the creepy makeup.)
10. Philip Boscoe – THE SAVAGES – This is another one of those older actors shining after many years.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
Chiwetel Ejiofer – American Gangster
Albert Finney – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men
Bruno Ganz – Youth Without Youth
Sacha Baron Cohen – Sweeney Todd
Ed Harris – Gone Baby Gone
Peter Fonda – 3:10 to Yuma
Ben Foster – 3:10 to Yuma
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jeff Daniels – The Lookout
Chris Cooper – Breach
Andy Griffith – Waitress
Mark Ruffalo – Reservation Road
Christian Bale – I’m Not There
Armin Mueller Stahl – Eastern Promises
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett – I’M NOT THERE – Even voters who refuse to see this “experimental” film may vote for her. She really proves herself to be the greatest actor (gender regardless) of her generation.
2. Saoire Ronam – ATONEMENT – She’s gotten more buzz than the two actresses she shares her role with, which is impressive given they are Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai. She also scored the lead in The Lovely Bones, Peter Jackson’s next film, which means she will probably be an actress to be reckoned with.
3. Meryl Streel - LIONS FOR LAMBS – The film hasn’t been seen, but it’s Meryl Streep so you can probably count on it.
4. Vanessa Redgrave – ATONEMENT – She’s got the Gloria Stuart role... and good reviews.
5. Jennifer Connelly – RESERVATION ROAD – The fact that they are keeping her in the supporting category means they probably thinks she’ll have a good chance at it.
6. Abbie Cornish – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Even in the reviews that didn’t like the film, Cornish has been singled out as a highlight as Eliabeth’s lady-in-waiting.
7. Tilda Swinton – MICHAEL CLAYTON – A solid character actress in a solid supporting role.
8. Olympia Dukakis – AWAY FROM HER – If they really love this film (and bother to see it), she may be pulled along.
9. Michelle Pfeiffer – HAIRSPRAY – She got good reviews for both of her films this year, but this one was better liked.
10. Susan Sarandon – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – Solid reviews for a veteran Oscar-winner.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
Romola Garai – Atonement
Marisa Tomei – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Kelly MacDonald – No Country for Old Men
Jennifer Jason Leigh – Margot at the Wedding
Marcia Gay Harden – Into the Wild
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Jennifer Garner – Juno
Amy Adams – Charlie Wilson’s War
Evan Rachel Wood – In Bloom
Mira Sorvino – Reservation Road
Renee Zellweger – Leatherheads
Brenda Blethyn – Atonement
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Joan Chen – Lust, Caution
Here are my picks from this time last year. I guess I should be happy with 2 ½ in each category considering how hard this is. But I can’t help shaking my head at year-ago me.
1. Jack Nicholson – The Departed
2. Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (right!)
3. Brad Pitt – Babel
4. Ben Affleck – Hollywoodland
5. Steve Carrell – Little Miss Sunshine
6. Michael Sheen – The Queen
7. Gael Garcia Bernal – Babel
8. Tobey Maguire – The Good German
9. Brian Cox – Running With Scissors
10. Mark Wahlberg – The Departed (right!)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children (right!)
* I had even seen Little Miss Sunshine and didn’t put Arkin on here! But no one had seen Blood Diamond so I won’t kick myself about missing Djimon Hounsou.
1. Cate Blanchett – Babel (wrong film!)
2. Angelina Jolei – The Good Shepherd
3. Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (right!)
4. Jennifer Connelly – Little Children
5. Emma Thompson – Stranger Than Fiction
6. Juliette Binoche – Breaking and Entering
7. Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada (yes, but in the wrong category)
8. Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine (right!)
9. Carmen Maura – Volver
10. Shareeka Epps – Half Nelson
OTHER CONTENDERS: Cate Blanchett – NOTES ON A SCANDAL (right!)
• As Babel hadn’t come out yet, I had no way of predicting the nominations of Adrianna Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. So there.
I have a feeling I did better this year, but who knows really.
But let’s take an example of a prestige movie coming out that hasn’t been seen – Charlie Wilson’s War. We can safely put Tom Hanks in the lead category and guess that is where they will put Julia Roberts (1 Male Lead and 1 Female Lead). That leaves Amy Adams, Emily Blunt, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Ned Beatty as the other name actors. While we know all of these actors are capable of great work, we have no idea the size or challenge of the parts they are going to play.
Last year, looking at Little Miss Sunshine from afar, it looked like Steve Carrell or Greg Kinnear might be nominees, but it was Alan Arkin who had the scene-stealing role. If you had an average of two possibilities in each category from the 70 films we are considering, that is 140 possibilities for each category. So, I’m giving myself five extra “other contender” choices.
So, my point with all this is… take these predictions with a grain of salt… or five.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Javier Bardem – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – One of the first shoe-ins of the year. Not a single review of this film doesn’t rave about his performance. It’s just a matter of category for him. But since he’s the villain (I believe) they’ll probably put him in supporting… unless they do it like Hopkins for Silence of the Lambs (the 22 minute “Lead” performance).2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Pure hearsay. They say he’s got a meaty role... in a Mike Nicholls film. Sounds good to me.
3. Casey Affleck – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD – Like I said, he’s having a break out year. It’s hard to tell at this point which film he may be recognized for. I don’t see a double nomination at this point.
4. Paul Dano – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – This is a hard one to assess at this point. From the trailers it looks like a very showy role – as a small town evangelical preacher. But it’s hard to tell if he really pulls it off, or its too difficult a role for so young an actor. If he pulls it off, he’ll be in here.
5. Hal Holbrook – INTO THE WILD – There are a lot of short supporting roles in this film, but this is the one that has gotten the most attention. And they love an older actor who does their best work in years. And he’s really old.6. Alan Rickman – SWEENEY TOOD – Again, it’s hard to tell when the film hasn’t been seen yet. But you’ve got to figure, Alan Rickman in a period musical just sounds like a winner.
7. Ethan Hawke – BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD – The buzz for this one is growing. The critics say Hawke and Phil Hoffman do some of their best work ever.
8. Tom Wilkinson – MICHAEL CLAYTON – He’s a lawyer who goes crazy and calls himself “Shiva, the God of Death”. Awardsville stuff.9. John Travolta – HAIRSPRAY – With very low expectations, people were very surprised at just how convincing Travolta was as a singing, dancing fat woman. (I’m not sure why… other than the creepy makeup.)
10. Philip Boscoe – THE SAVAGES – This is another one of those older actors shining after many years.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
Chiwetel Ejiofer – American Gangster
Albert Finney – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men
Bruno Ganz – Youth Without Youth
Sacha Baron Cohen – Sweeney ToddEd Harris – Gone Baby Gone
Peter Fonda – 3:10 to Yuma
Ben Foster – 3:10 to Yuma
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jeff Daniels – The Lookout
Chris Cooper – Breach
Andy Griffith – Waitress
Mark Ruffalo – Reservation Road
Christian Bale – I’m Not There
Armin Mueller Stahl – Eastern Promises
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett – I’M NOT THERE – Even voters who refuse to see this “experimental” film may vote for her. She really proves herself to be the greatest actor (gender regardless) of her generation.2. Saoire Ronam – ATONEMENT – She’s gotten more buzz than the two actresses she shares her role with, which is impressive given they are Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai. She also scored the lead in The Lovely Bones, Peter Jackson’s next film, which means she will probably be an actress to be reckoned with.
3. Meryl Streel - LIONS FOR LAMBS – The film hasn’t been seen, but it’s Meryl Streep so you can probably count on it.
4. Vanessa Redgrave – ATONEMENT – She’s got the Gloria Stuart role... and good reviews.
5. Jennifer Connelly – RESERVATION ROAD – The fact that they are keeping her in the supporting category means they probably thinks she’ll have a good chance at it.6. Abbie Cornish – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Even in the reviews that didn’t like the film, Cornish has been singled out as a highlight as Eliabeth’s lady-in-waiting.
7. Tilda Swinton – MICHAEL CLAYTON – A solid character actress in a solid supporting role.
8. Olympia Dukakis – AWAY FROM HER – If they really love this film (and bother to see it), she may be pulled along.
9. Michelle Pfeiffer – HAIRSPRAY – She got good reviews for both of her films this year, but this one was better liked.
10. Susan Sarandon – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – Solid reviews for a veteran Oscar-winner.OTHER CONTENDERS:
Romola Garai – Atonement
Marisa Tomei – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Kelly MacDonald – No Country for Old Men
Jennifer Jason Leigh – Margot at the Wedding
Marcia Gay Harden – Into the Wild
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Jennifer Garner – Juno
Amy Adams – Charlie Wilson’s War
Evan Rachel Wood – In Bloom
Mira Sorvino – Reservation Road
Renee Zellweger – Leatherheads
Brenda Blethyn – Atonement
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Joan Chen – Lust, Caution
Here are my picks from this time last year. I guess I should be happy with 2 ½ in each category considering how hard this is. But I can’t help shaking my head at year-ago me.
1. Jack Nicholson – The Departed
2. Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (right!)
3. Brad Pitt – Babel
4. Ben Affleck – Hollywoodland
5. Steve Carrell – Little Miss Sunshine
6. Michael Sheen – The Queen
7. Gael Garcia Bernal – Babel
8. Tobey Maguire – The Good German
9. Brian Cox – Running With Scissors
10. Mark Wahlberg – The Departed (right!)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children (right!)
* I had even seen Little Miss Sunshine and didn’t put Arkin on here! But no one had seen Blood Diamond so I won’t kick myself about missing Djimon Hounsou.
1. Cate Blanchett – Babel (wrong film!)
2. Angelina Jolei – The Good Shepherd
3. Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (right!)
4. Jennifer Connelly – Little Children
5. Emma Thompson – Stranger Than Fiction
6. Juliette Binoche – Breaking and Entering
7. Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada (yes, but in the wrong category)
8. Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine (right!)
9. Carmen Maura – Volver
10. Shareeka Epps – Half Nelson
OTHER CONTENDERS: Cate Blanchett – NOTES ON A SCANDAL (right!)
• As Babel hadn’t come out yet, I had no way of predicting the nominations of Adrianna Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. So there.
I have a feeling I did better this year, but who knows really.
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