But I had to put in my final nomination predictions. This is my very favorite part of the race. I’m better at predicting the nominations then the winners. I usually go five for five in a few categories, three for five in a few more, and four for five in most. There is usually one or so two for fives.
I think I’ve done a pretty good job this year. I’ve tried taking a step back and going back to my old techniques and ignoring the buzz. I did much better before the explosion of Oscar coverage of the last three or so years. So, I’ve gone back to my old mathematical techniques of weighing the early awards, the BAFTAs, and the Guilds.
When it comes to Best Picture, I think it’s important to look for films with broad support across categories. This year it was very difficult to narrow down the five pics as it was such a strong year. In general, the math came out in favor of the consensus. The funny thing is, most people are ignoring the consensus in favor of the buzz. There is a difference.
Without further ado:
BEST PICTUREThe Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, Juno, American Gangster
MY REASONING: This is the DGA list exacting, which seems stupid to predict. I added up everything, looked at it from every angle, and this list consistently came out on top. Diving Bell would be the first foreign film with a best picture nomination that wasn’t a big hit. But when you see the support it has across the guilds, it’s impossible to ignore. I resisted leaving Juno and Atonement out for a long time – but Atonement was left out by the directors, actors, producers, writers, and editors. And I can’t justify leaving any of the others out in favor of Juno. So, there you go.
BEST DIRECTOR
Joe Wright – Atonement
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn – Into the Wild
Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton, Sidney Lumet – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
MY REASONING: Coen, Amderson, and Schnabel are shoe-ins. The Academy loves actors turned directors like Penn. I give the lone director slot to Wright because the old-school directors in the Academy will appreciate his accomplishment.
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch – Into the Wild
James McAvoy – Atonement
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
POSSIBLE SPOILERS – Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd, Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl
MY REASONING: It is shocking how little support Sweeney Todd has gotten. Depp didn’t get a SAG nomination. SAG went for Gosling, but I think some people won’t like the film or see the work as minor compared to Half Nelson last year. McAvoy’s is a star-making performance.
BEST ACTRESSJulie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Keira Knightley – Atonement
MY REASONING: Christie, Cotillard, and Page are shoe-ins. Jolie hasn’t been nominated since her win almost a decade ago. I did a last minute switcharoo between Linney and Blanchett. I think when the actors are filling out their ballots they’ll think one nod is enough for Miss Blanchett (for supporting) and spread the wealth around.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James…
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men, Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
MY REASONING – There are four shoe-ins and a wild card. I don’t see people being passionate about Hoffman’s performance. I originally slotted in Jones, but made a last minute split for Von Sydow. He was nominated for Pell the Conqueror decades ago. When people talk about how heart-wrenching his performance is, they forget to mention that he is also playing a Frenchman. He’s Swedish! I think the older voters may remember this.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSCate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Saoirse Ronan – Atonement, Jennifer Garner – Juno
MY REASONING: I went for the sentimental choice for my fifth slot with Ruby Dee. I personally thought she was awesome. Her SAG nomination probably made a lot of people think about that just in time.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eastern Promises
Juno
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lars and the Real Girl, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
MY REASONING: This was a hard category to fill in this year. Everything is adapted! I decided to slot in Ratatouille because it is one of the only animated films ever with a single writer and it’s about art and passion. Then a chose Eastern Promises over Lars because I just can’t see them going for the blow up doll movie.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Away from Her, Zodiac
MY REASONING: Despite the plethora of quality choices, I found this list rather easy to come up with. I think only a last minute surge for Zodiac would chance it.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jess James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild
MY REASONING: This is the ASC list exactly, and it’s hard to argue with.
BEST EDITINGThe Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, The Bourne Ultimatum
MY REASONING: A repeat of my Picture list; another thing that gives me confidence in my choices. All of these got ACE nods except Diving Bell.
BEST ART DIRECTION
300
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: American Gangster, The Golden Compass
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lust, Caution, American Gangster
MAKE UP
300
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
La Vie En Rose
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sweeney Todd, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
VISUAL EFFECTS300
I Am Legend
Transformers
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Bourne Ultimatum, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, 300
BEST SOUND EDITING
300
Beowulf
The Bourne Ultimatum
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Ratatouille, I Am Legeng
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Ratatouille
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lust, Caution
MY REASONING: The news just came out that Johnny Greenwood's amazing score for There WIll Be Blood is ineligible due to use of other music and references to other music in it. Lame.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG“Come So Far” – Hairspray
“Do You Fell Me” – American Gangster
“Falling Slowly” – Once
“Guaranteed” – Into the Wild
“Rise” – Into the Wild
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: “Society” – Into the Wild, “If You Want Me” – Once
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nanking
No End in Sight
The Rape of Europa
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Operation Homecoming, Lake of Fire
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bee Movie
Persepolis
Ratatouille
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Simpsons Movie, Beowulf
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Days of Darkness
Katyn
Mongol
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Unknown Woman, 12
MY REASONING: This list is ridiculous, and choosing five films from nine that haven’t been released in the United States is ridiculous. So, I kind of went the random route.
There you have it. Some of these will be wrong, but I think it’s pretty solid. I’m hoping to get 80%, the high end of my usual. Here are the tallies:
Into the Wild – 10
There Will Be Blood - 9
No Country for Old Men - 7
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – 7
Michael Clayton – 6
Atonement – 7
300 - 4
La Vie En Rose – 3
The Assassination of Jesse James… - 3
Sweeney Todd - 3
Juno – 2 (*The fact that it is so likely to get so few nominations is why I took it off my Best Picture list)
The Savages - 2
Eastern Promises – 2
American Gangster – 2
Ratatouille – 2
Elizabeth: The Golden Age – 2
Hairspray – 2
The Bourne Ultimatum - 2
Transformers - 2
Away From Her – 1
A Mighty Heart – 1
I’m Not There – 1
Gone Baby Gone – 1
I Am Legend – 1
The Kite Runner - 1
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