Your Homework Before Oscar Night

There are only four weeks until Oscar night and there are 38 films nominated. So it's time to get crackin. Here's a list of all the movies you should see before Oscar night in order of importance. This is based purely on nominations and not on likeliness of winning, giving more weight to more important categories. Race you to the finish!

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Milk
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Reader
6. Doubt
7. The Dark Knight
8. Wall-E
9. The Wrestler
10. Frozen River
11. Changeling
12. Revolutionary Road
13. Rachel Getting Married
14. The Visitor
15. Waltz with Bashir
16. The Baader Meinhof Complex
17. The Class
18. Departures
19. Revanch
20. Man on Wire
21. Encounters at the End of the World
22. Trouble the Water
23. The Betrayal
24. The Garden
25. Kung Fu Panda
26. Bolt
27. Tropic Thunder
28. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
29. Happy-Go-Lucky
30. In Bruges
31. Iron Man
32. The Duchess
33. Wanted
34. Defiance
35. Australia
36. The Nominated Animated Shorts
37. The Nominated Live-Action Shorts
38. The Nominated Documentary Shorts

I've seen 15 so far, but I would like to get at least another 5 or 6 in. So, let's get watching!

How Do You Get the Most Votes and Still Lose? (Besides with the Electoral College

I have to point out one of the strangest things about this year's nominations. It is very likely the that performance that received the most votes in the Best Actress category was not nominated. How you ask? To understand, you first have to know about two rules the Academy has - one that makes sense and one that doesn't. The first rule is that if a performance receives votes in both the lead and supporting categories (as there is no technical differentiation between them) all of the votes go into the category that received more votes. This way, there is a true representation of the amount of votes the performance got. This prevents a split vote that would leave a highly praised performance with no nomination. This makes sense, doesn't it?

The second rule is that one actor cannot be nominated in the same category twice. This is a stupid rule and it exists in no other category (directors and sound designers can compete against themselves.) This is why you will often see an actor who had two good performances in a year campaigning for one of them in the supporting category. This makes no sense, as an actor's work in one movie is totally separate from their work in another. It's ridiculous that they can be nominated for both if one is called a 'supporting performance' even though there is no definition of supporting versus lead.

So, in the case of this year, Kate Winslet had two stellar performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. While Revolutionary Road is obviously a lead, they have been campaigning her in the supporting category for The Reader so she could get recognized for both. But apparently a lot of people didn't buy it and voted for her in the lead category instead. Since she obviously received more votes in the lead category than in the supporting, they moved all of her votes into the lead category. Even if she received far more lead actress votes for Revolutionary Road, the combined total of her Reader votes would have been higher, thus making her ineligible to be nominated for Revolutionary Road. Totally ridiculous. So, that is how a performance can get the most votes in its category and still not be nominated.

The Contenders

I've gone back and put the actual nominees in bold. I did pretty well this year with 82%.

So, I didn’t get any of the blogs done that I wanted. But the time approaches nonetheless, and I can’t possibly go a year without logging in my predictions for the Oscar nominations. I often enjoy this part more than predicting the winners, which can be a much more political and exact science. The predictions are a matter of balance and refinement, so I can usually manage five out of five in a couple of categories, three out of five in a few, and four out of five in most. It will be seen tomorrow if my lack of excessive study has a huge affect on my predicting ability (either positive or negative). So without further ado…


BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Wall-E
NOT MENTIONED: The Reader

MY REASONING: Written at the beginning of this process: I was going to go for the exact list from the DGA and PGA but I decided to swap The Dark Knight for Revolutionary Road at the last minute. Last year, I went for the DGA list which had The Diving Bell and Into the Wild as opposed to Atonement and Juno. My gut told me Atonement and I ignored it. I’m going to go with my hunch that the dominant actors branch will carry Road over the finish line.
Written at the end: I chickened out. After predicting that the Dark Knight would get TEN nominations even without Best Picture, I can no longer justify leaving it out. Tomorrow, I will either be high fiving myself or slapping my forehead.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant – Milk

POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sam Mendes, Stephen Daldry, Andrew Stanton

MY REASONING: This group has dominated the award season and they will continue to do so at the Oscars.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins

MY REASONING: I had a hard time deciding which of the two pretty boys, DiCaprio or Pitt would make the cut. Pitt had racked up more points, but I think there was more talk about DiCaprio’s actual performance as opposed to Pitt’s special effects. Rather than go for both, I thought I would let Eastwood sneak in as you can never lose money betting on him with the Academy.


BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Anjelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslett – Revolutionary Road
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Melissa Leo, Cate Blanchett, Kristin Scott Thomas

MY REASONING: Throughout the season, there have been eight strong performances rotating honors in this category. The precursors all varied, giving no help at all. So I picked these five, somewhat randomly, just based on hunches. So I know at least one of the ladies I put in the spoilers will probably be on the list, if not all three.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Michael Sheen, Michael Shannon, James Franco

MY REASONING: I feel pretty settled on this five. I have a feeling if someone else shows up on this list, it will be totally out of left field.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslett – The Reader
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Amy Adams, Freida Pinto, Rosemary DeWitt

MY REASONING: My only hesitation on this list was deciding which of the ladies from Doubt would make the it. I decided to favor Davis, despite being less well known than Amy Adams. I think she’s got that underdog element that will compel more people to vote for you.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Burn After Reading, Wall-E, In Bruges
NOT MENTIONED: Frozen River

MY REASONING: This is an adaptation heavy year, but there are still a lot of big contenders here. The precursors are wide spread and therefore unhelpful. So hopefully I guessed well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, The Dark Knight

MY REASONING: I went with Doubt over Road, since the biggest complaint about Road is the over-the-top dialog. No one has been raving about Shanley’s direction of Doubt, but his adaptation of his own play has that prestige factor.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revanch, Departures, Tear Out This Heart, 3 Monkeys

MY REASONING: Having only seen one of these movies (the amazing Waltz), I first go by other nomination and awards, then country. Since there are only nine to choose from, I guess I’m guaranteed at least one.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man On Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Betrayal, Made in America, They Killed Sister Dorothy
NOT MENTIONED: The Garden

MY REASONING: Once again, I have limited knowledge beyond the 15 films on the short list. Again – awards, reviews, buzz, and then just interesting titles.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Bolt, Madagascar: Escape to Africa

MY REASONING: I think the Academy is insane if this isn’t the list. This would be the strongest animation list ever.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Milk, Changeling, Australia

BEST EDITING (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Iron Man, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler

BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Australia, Milk, Revolutionary Road
NOT MENTIONED: The Duchess

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Australia
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Dark Knight, Milk, Sex and the City

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Wrestler, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Hellboy II

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3 for 3 !!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Hellboy II: The Golden Army

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Quantum of Solace, The Wrestler, Australia
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Slumdog Millionaire, The Incredible Hulk, Cloverfield
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SCORE
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Defiance

BEST SONG
“Down to Earth” – Wall-E
“Jaiho” – Slumdog Millionaire
“Gran Torino” – Gran Torino
“Once in a Lifetime” – Cadillac Records
“The Wrestler” – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: “I Thought I Lost You”, “Another Way to Die”. "O Saya”

Awards Count:
Benjamin Button – 13 (15)
Slumdog Millionaire - 10 (13)
The Dark Knight – 11 (12)
Milk – 6 (11)
Revolutionary Road – 4 (10)
Frost/Nixon – 5 (7)
Wall-E – 4 (7)
Changeling – 4 (5)
Doubt – 4 (5)
The Wrestler – 3 (6)
The Reader – 3 (5)