The Contenders

I've gone back and put the actual nominees in bold. I did pretty well this year with 82%.

So, I didn’t get any of the blogs done that I wanted. But the time approaches nonetheless, and I can’t possibly go a year without logging in my predictions for the Oscar nominations. I often enjoy this part more than predicting the winners, which can be a much more political and exact science. The predictions are a matter of balance and refinement, so I can usually manage five out of five in a couple of categories, three out of five in a few, and four out of five in most. It will be seen tomorrow if my lack of excessive study has a huge affect on my predicting ability (either positive or negative). So without further ado…


BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Wall-E
NOT MENTIONED: The Reader

MY REASONING: Written at the beginning of this process: I was going to go for the exact list from the DGA and PGA but I decided to swap The Dark Knight for Revolutionary Road at the last minute. Last year, I went for the DGA list which had The Diving Bell and Into the Wild as opposed to Atonement and Juno. My gut told me Atonement and I ignored it. I’m going to go with my hunch that the dominant actors branch will carry Road over the finish line.
Written at the end: I chickened out. After predicting that the Dark Knight would get TEN nominations even without Best Picture, I can no longer justify leaving it out. Tomorrow, I will either be high fiving myself or slapping my forehead.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant – Milk

POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sam Mendes, Stephen Daldry, Andrew Stanton

MY REASONING: This group has dominated the award season and they will continue to do so at the Oscars.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins

MY REASONING: I had a hard time deciding which of the two pretty boys, DiCaprio or Pitt would make the cut. Pitt had racked up more points, but I think there was more talk about DiCaprio’s actual performance as opposed to Pitt’s special effects. Rather than go for both, I thought I would let Eastwood sneak in as you can never lose money betting on him with the Academy.


BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Anjelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslett – Revolutionary Road
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Melissa Leo, Cate Blanchett, Kristin Scott Thomas

MY REASONING: Throughout the season, there have been eight strong performances rotating honors in this category. The precursors all varied, giving no help at all. So I picked these five, somewhat randomly, just based on hunches. So I know at least one of the ladies I put in the spoilers will probably be on the list, if not all three.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Michael Sheen, Michael Shannon, James Franco

MY REASONING: I feel pretty settled on this five. I have a feeling if someone else shows up on this list, it will be totally out of left field.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslett – The Reader
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Amy Adams, Freida Pinto, Rosemary DeWitt

MY REASONING: My only hesitation on this list was deciding which of the ladies from Doubt would make the it. I decided to favor Davis, despite being less well known than Amy Adams. I think she’s got that underdog element that will compel more people to vote for you.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Burn After Reading, Wall-E, In Bruges
NOT MENTIONED: Frozen River

MY REASONING: This is an adaptation heavy year, but there are still a lot of big contenders here. The precursors are wide spread and therefore unhelpful. So hopefully I guessed well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, The Dark Knight

MY REASONING: I went with Doubt over Road, since the biggest complaint about Road is the over-the-top dialog. No one has been raving about Shanley’s direction of Doubt, but his adaptation of his own play has that prestige factor.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revanch, Departures, Tear Out This Heart, 3 Monkeys

MY REASONING: Having only seen one of these movies (the amazing Waltz), I first go by other nomination and awards, then country. Since there are only nine to choose from, I guess I’m guaranteed at least one.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man On Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Betrayal, Made in America, They Killed Sister Dorothy
NOT MENTIONED: The Garden

MY REASONING: Once again, I have limited knowledge beyond the 15 films on the short list. Again – awards, reviews, buzz, and then just interesting titles.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Bolt, Madagascar: Escape to Africa

MY REASONING: I think the Academy is insane if this isn’t the list. This would be the strongest animation list ever.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Milk, Changeling, Australia

BEST EDITING (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Iron Man, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler

BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Australia, Milk, Revolutionary Road
NOT MENTIONED: The Duchess

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Australia
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Dark Knight, Milk, Sex and the City

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Wrestler, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Hellboy II

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3 for 3 !!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Hellboy II: The Golden Army

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Quantum of Solace, The Wrestler, Australia
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Slumdog Millionaire, The Incredible Hulk, Cloverfield
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SCORE
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Defiance

BEST SONG
“Down to Earth” – Wall-E
“Jaiho” – Slumdog Millionaire
“Gran Torino” – Gran Torino
“Once in a Lifetime” – Cadillac Records
“The Wrestler” – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: “I Thought I Lost You”, “Another Way to Die”. "O Saya”

Awards Count:
Benjamin Button – 13 (15)
Slumdog Millionaire - 10 (13)
The Dark Knight – 11 (12)
Milk – 6 (11)
Revolutionary Road – 4 (10)
Frost/Nixon – 5 (7)
Wall-E – 4 (7)
Changeling – 4 (5)
Doubt – 4 (5)
The Wrestler – 3 (6)
The Reader – 3 (5)