The King and Queen of the Prom

I’ll keep it moving with the actor lists.

BEST ACTOR

1. Sean Penn – MILK – An amazing performance that couldn’t be more different from his Oscar-winning turn in Mystic River. Loads of critics and nominations can’t be wrong!

2. Mickey Rourke – THE WRESTLER – A truly mesmerizing, hearth-breaking performance. Unlike The Ram, Rourke has learned to behave himself in descent society and campaign for his awards with that whole redemption narrative.

3. Frank Langella – FROST/NIXON – Langella goes beyond imitation in reviving his stage performance as Nixon. The Academy loves that, since they all still think theatre is more respectable than film.

4. Richard Jenkins – THE VISITOR – A usually invisible character actor turns in a beautiful lead performance. Hopefully, he doesn’t get overshadowed by the other character actor turned lead (see Langella above).

5. Brad Pitt – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The title character in a many-times-nominated film usually gets in there. But a lot of people find his performance to be too passive.

6. Leonardo DiCaprio – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – They say it’s his best work. But he could be overshadowed by bigger films and by his co-star. (Like he was last time he worked with Winslett.)

7. Clint Eastwood – GRAN TORINO – The Academy loves Eastwood to an unhealthy degree. Perhaps the lack of a Golden Globe or SAG nomination is the first sign that the love affair is over.

8. Benicio Del Toro – CHE – A totally left field choice.

9. Josh Brolin – W – If the Academy is feeling particularly political.

10. Ralph Fiennes – THE READER – I’m just filling up slots at this point.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
That’s pretty much it. It’s a thin year.


BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep – DOUBT – The fact that Meryl Streep will be nominated any year she puts a little effort in is inevitable.

2. Kate Winslett – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – Powerhouse stuff from the actress who might just break the record for most nominations without a win.

3. Anne Hathaway – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED – A whole lot of critics’ prizes and a bunch of sympathetic press coverage work well for her.

4. Anjelina Jolie – THE CHANGELING – Who doesn’t want Jolie to show up to their party?!

5. Melissa Leo – FROZEN RIVER – The female equivalent of Richard Jenkins.

6. Cate Blanchett – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – Beautiful work making a sometimes unlikable character thoroughly relatable.

7. Sally Hawkins – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY – The little known British actress has gotten raves, critics awards, and a Globe nomination for her work in Mike Leigh’s latest.

8. Kristin Scott Thomas – I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG – Thomas is likely to get nominated if enough people actually see her in this film about a woman just released from prison. Did I mention she acts in perfect French!

9. Kate Beckinsale – NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH – She gets in here solely on a Critics Choice nomination.

10. Michelle Williams – WENDY AND LUCY – This little film is starting to pick up some steam, not to mention the sympathy votes.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Rebecca Hall – VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Emma Thompson – LAST CHANCE HARVEY

Again, it’s a pretty thin year. Not to mention the fact that a lot of the spectulative fat has been trimmed by this time. For instance, I won’t bother putting down Nicole Kidman for Australia.

Here’s my lists from September of last year:

ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (yup!)
2. Johnny Depp (yup!)
3. Tom Hanks
4. James McAvoy
5. Denzel Washington
6. Tom Cruise
7. Tommy Lee Jones (yup!)
8. Josh Brolin
9. Viggo Mortenson (yup!)
10. Casey Affleck
OTHER CONTENDERS: George Clooney (yup!!)

So, 4 ½ ain’t bad!

ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Right!)
2. Julie Christie (Right!)
3. Jodie Foster
4. Helena Bonham Carter
5. Keira Knightley
6. Anjelina Jolie
7. Halle Berry
8. Julia Roberts
9. Laura Linney (Right!)
10. Marion Cotillard (Right)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Ellen Page (Right!)

Another 4 ½. So, I rightly predicted all five nominees six months in advance. But stupid Juno and stupid Michael Clayton once again lower my batting average.