Getting a Late Start

This year has just walked right by me in a haze of work, school, and presidential elections. Now that I have a little time to relax and look around, I thought I would venture back into the Oscar blogosphere. Obviously, this will not be comprehensive, as I usually start in September, but I couldn’t go the whole season without putting my two cents in. So, I’ll start with my annual lists of the top contenders in each category before posting my final predictions for the nominees.

It’s shaping up to be a great year. The pool of films in consideration seems to be a bit small this year, but the quality to great. Without further ado, here are the top contenders for Best Picture and Director.

BEST PICTURE

1. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE – Virtually every critics’ prize, along with nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG guarantee a spot for Danny Boyle’s Indian Dickens story.

2. THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The classic best picture contender of the bunch. It should receive the move nominations of any film easily.

3. FROST/NIXON – The actors’ movie. It’s this year’s The Queen or Michael Clayton. It makes it through on loads of actors’ support.

4. MILK – The “important” film of the year. Everyone likes it, though it could be hurt by a lack of enthusiastic passion for it.

5. WALL-E – An inordinate amount of love from critics (Los Angeles and Chicago) could move Wall-E from the Animation category.

6. DOUBT – If there is room for two acting-heavy adaptations of Pulitzer-Prize winning plays, then this could slip in too.

7. THE DARK KNIGHT – Hollywood cannot ignore the will of the people and their $500 million.

8. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – This is the kind of polished, old-school drama that the academy used to drool over.

9. THE READER – Never underestimate Nazis.

10. THE WRESTLER – Love for Mickey Rourke’s acting could push this little film farther.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Happy-Go-Lucky, Gran Torino, Defiance


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Danny Boyle – SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2. David Fincher – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
3. Gus Van Sant – MILK
4. Ron Howard – FROST/NIXON
5. Christopher Nolan – THE DARK KNIGHT
6. Sam Mendes – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
7. Stephen Daldry – THE READER
8. Andrew Stanton – WALL-E
9. Mike Leigh – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
10. Darren Aronofsky – THE WRESTLER

OTHER CONTENDERS:
John Patrick Shanley – DOUBT, Jonathon Demme – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Clint Eastwood – THE CHANGELING/GRAN TORINO

Here’s a look back on how I did with my early list (late September!) last year.

PICTURE:
1. Atonement (yes!)
2. No Country for Old Men (yes!)
3. Charlie Wilson’s War
4. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. American Gangster
6. The Kite Runner
7. Into the Wild
8. There Will be Blood (yes!)
9. In the Valley of Elah
10. Sweeney Todd

And I totally missed Juno and Michael Clayton. D’oh!

DIRECTOR:
1. Joel and Ethan Coen (yup!)
2. Joe Wright
3. Ridley Scott
4. Mike Nichols
5. David Cronenberg
6. Paul Thomas Anderson (yup!)
7. Francis Ford Coppola
8. Tim Burton
9. Sean Penn
10. Marc Forster
Other Contenders: Julian Schnabel (yup!)

Once again, I totally missed the whole Michael Clayton and Juno thing. That kind of messed up my numbers. But it was early in the year, this year should be better, given how late in the season it is.