THE BIG(GER) TOP

I’ll get the ball rolling with a look at this year’s most interesting category – Best Picture. I was asked a lot throughout this year for my opinion on the expanding of the category to ten nominees. I withheld any judgment until I saw the first round of nominees. Overall, I think the experiment works. A lot of interesting films, both commercial and small, are getting the much needed attention and marketing boost that comes along with the Best Picture nod. And while I seriously doubt they had to worry about Avatar getting a nod, I think the wide net of nominees may have the wanted effect on the ratings. (Perhaps I will write another rant/blog about the press’s and Academy’s ridiculous obsession with getting their ratings back to pre-internet/cable levels.)

To anyone who may think that this increased pool of nominees will somehow lead to a less popular winner, you have to know about the Academy’s preferential voting system, that makes sure every vote counts. Essentially, voters are asked to rank the films. They get sorted by the first choice, then small piles get reshuffled into the second choice, so there is a consensus over the winner. So, the winner this year will likely get no fewer votes than in past years. Besides, we all know that five of these films have virtually no chance at winning. So, without further ado, here are my thoughts on their chances…

AVATAR

FOR IT: The winner of the Golden Globe is also now the highest grossing film of all time (with an *). The Academy’s technical and producing branches are mostly filled with people who think this is the pinnacle of filmic achievement. AGAINST IT: Virtually, no support from the acting branch, who see this as the death of filmic achievement.. for them. The surprising loss from the PGA and DGA and lack of even a nomination from SAG do not bode well. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

THE BLIND SIDE

FOR IT: A feel good hit, that appealed to the often ignored segment of the country. AGAINST IT: Not a chance in hell. The Academy voters are not from that part of the country, and they could not even tell you who directed this. CHANCES OF WINNING: 1%

DISTRICT 9

FOR IT: A surprise hit that has been praised both for its special effects and its intelligent writing. AGAINST IT: It’s a science fiction film with no director nomination. The honor is in the nomination. CHANCES OF WINNING: 2%

AN EDUCATION

FOR IT: An actors' movie with a breakout performance, and a prestige British pedigree of actors, director and writer. AGAINST: All of which means any votes it will get will be in writing and acting. Far too small to show in this race. CHANCES OF WINNING: 2%

THE HURT LOCKER

FOR IT: The momentum created by winning the PGA and DGA awards out from under the Goliath that is Avatar. It also has the acting support (as well as technical) that Avatar does not have. A timely drama that is also a kick-ass action flick. AGAINST IT: It doesn’t have the emotional core that has been the catnip of the Academy in recent years. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

FOR IT: The win at the SAG awards means that the film has the support of the largest voting body in the Academy. The late buzz has definitely been in the film’s favor. AGAINST IT: It too may be seen as lacking that emotional core that the Academy loves. It may be too fantastical for their tastes. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

PRECIOUS

FOR IT: This one is rife with the emotion and acting the big branch loves. AGAINST IT: It’s just too small to get across-the-board support. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

A SERIOUS MAN

FOR IT: The Coen Brothers. AGAINST IT: Only one other nomination. And who saw it? CHANCES OF WINNING: 1%

UP IN THE AIR

FOR IT: It’s got the acting and the timeliness factors checked off. The general prestige of the involved parties and the high level nominations show there is a lot of support for the film. AGAINST IT: It hasn’t won much beyond screenplay awards (which I think is the weakest part of the film!) CHANCES OF WINNING: 12%

UP

FOR IT: Probably the best reviewed film in the bunch, and the only one that made everyone who saw it weep. AGAINST IT: It’s animated, and not the best Pixar has done. Maybe next time. CHANCES OF WINNING: 2%