The King and Queen of the Prom

I’ll keep it moving with the actor lists.

BEST ACTOR

1. Sean Penn – MILK – An amazing performance that couldn’t be more different from his Oscar-winning turn in Mystic River. Loads of critics and nominations can’t be wrong!

2. Mickey Rourke – THE WRESTLER – A truly mesmerizing, hearth-breaking performance. Unlike The Ram, Rourke has learned to behave himself in descent society and campaign for his awards with that whole redemption narrative.

3. Frank Langella – FROST/NIXON – Langella goes beyond imitation in reviving his stage performance as Nixon. The Academy loves that, since they all still think theatre is more respectable than film.

4. Richard Jenkins – THE VISITOR – A usually invisible character actor turns in a beautiful lead performance. Hopefully, he doesn’t get overshadowed by the other character actor turned lead (see Langella above).

5. Brad Pitt – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The title character in a many-times-nominated film usually gets in there. But a lot of people find his performance to be too passive.

6. Leonardo DiCaprio – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – They say it’s his best work. But he could be overshadowed by bigger films and by his co-star. (Like he was last time he worked with Winslett.)

7. Clint Eastwood – GRAN TORINO – The Academy loves Eastwood to an unhealthy degree. Perhaps the lack of a Golden Globe or SAG nomination is the first sign that the love affair is over.

8. Benicio Del Toro – CHE – A totally left field choice.

9. Josh Brolin – W – If the Academy is feeling particularly political.

10. Ralph Fiennes – THE READER – I’m just filling up slots at this point.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
That’s pretty much it. It’s a thin year.


BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep – DOUBT – The fact that Meryl Streep will be nominated any year she puts a little effort in is inevitable.

2. Kate Winslett – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – Powerhouse stuff from the actress who might just break the record for most nominations without a win.

3. Anne Hathaway – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED – A whole lot of critics’ prizes and a bunch of sympathetic press coverage work well for her.

4. Anjelina Jolie – THE CHANGELING – Who doesn’t want Jolie to show up to their party?!

5. Melissa Leo – FROZEN RIVER – The female equivalent of Richard Jenkins.

6. Cate Blanchett – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – Beautiful work making a sometimes unlikable character thoroughly relatable.

7. Sally Hawkins – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY – The little known British actress has gotten raves, critics awards, and a Globe nomination for her work in Mike Leigh’s latest.

8. Kristin Scott Thomas – I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG – Thomas is likely to get nominated if enough people actually see her in this film about a woman just released from prison. Did I mention she acts in perfect French!

9. Kate Beckinsale – NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH – She gets in here solely on a Critics Choice nomination.

10. Michelle Williams – WENDY AND LUCY – This little film is starting to pick up some steam, not to mention the sympathy votes.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Rebecca Hall – VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Emma Thompson – LAST CHANCE HARVEY

Again, it’s a pretty thin year. Not to mention the fact that a lot of the spectulative fat has been trimmed by this time. For instance, I won’t bother putting down Nicole Kidman for Australia.

Here’s my lists from September of last year:

ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (yup!)
2. Johnny Depp (yup!)
3. Tom Hanks
4. James McAvoy
5. Denzel Washington
6. Tom Cruise
7. Tommy Lee Jones (yup!)
8. Josh Brolin
9. Viggo Mortenson (yup!)
10. Casey Affleck
OTHER CONTENDERS: George Clooney (yup!!)

So, 4 ½ ain’t bad!

ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Right!)
2. Julie Christie (Right!)
3. Jodie Foster
4. Helena Bonham Carter
5. Keira Knightley
6. Anjelina Jolie
7. Halle Berry
8. Julia Roberts
9. Laura Linney (Right!)
10. Marion Cotillard (Right)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Ellen Page (Right!)

Another 4 ½. So, I rightly predicted all five nominees six months in advance. But stupid Juno and stupid Michael Clayton once again lower my batting average.

Getting a Late Start

This year has just walked right by me in a haze of work, school, and presidential elections. Now that I have a little time to relax and look around, I thought I would venture back into the Oscar blogosphere. Obviously, this will not be comprehensive, as I usually start in September, but I couldn’t go the whole season without putting my two cents in. So, I’ll start with my annual lists of the top contenders in each category before posting my final predictions for the nominees.

It’s shaping up to be a great year. The pool of films in consideration seems to be a bit small this year, but the quality to great. Without further ado, here are the top contenders for Best Picture and Director.

BEST PICTURE

1. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE – Virtually every critics’ prize, along with nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG guarantee a spot for Danny Boyle’s Indian Dickens story.

2. THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The classic best picture contender of the bunch. It should receive the move nominations of any film easily.

3. FROST/NIXON – The actors’ movie. It’s this year’s The Queen or Michael Clayton. It makes it through on loads of actors’ support.

4. MILK – The “important” film of the year. Everyone likes it, though it could be hurt by a lack of enthusiastic passion for it.

5. WALL-E – An inordinate amount of love from critics (Los Angeles and Chicago) could move Wall-E from the Animation category.

6. DOUBT – If there is room for two acting-heavy adaptations of Pulitzer-Prize winning plays, then this could slip in too.

7. THE DARK KNIGHT – Hollywood cannot ignore the will of the people and their $500 million.

8. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – This is the kind of polished, old-school drama that the academy used to drool over.

9. THE READER – Never underestimate Nazis.

10. THE WRESTLER – Love for Mickey Rourke’s acting could push this little film farther.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Happy-Go-Lucky, Gran Torino, Defiance


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Danny Boyle – SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2. David Fincher – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
3. Gus Van Sant – MILK
4. Ron Howard – FROST/NIXON
5. Christopher Nolan – THE DARK KNIGHT
6. Sam Mendes – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
7. Stephen Daldry – THE READER
8. Andrew Stanton – WALL-E
9. Mike Leigh – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
10. Darren Aronofsky – THE WRESTLER

OTHER CONTENDERS:
John Patrick Shanley – DOUBT, Jonathon Demme – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Clint Eastwood – THE CHANGELING/GRAN TORINO

Here’s a look back on how I did with my early list (late September!) last year.

PICTURE:
1. Atonement (yes!)
2. No Country for Old Men (yes!)
3. Charlie Wilson’s War
4. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. American Gangster
6. The Kite Runner
7. Into the Wild
8. There Will be Blood (yes!)
9. In the Valley of Elah
10. Sweeney Todd

And I totally missed Juno and Michael Clayton. D’oh!

DIRECTOR:
1. Joel and Ethan Coen (yup!)
2. Joe Wright
3. Ridley Scott
4. Mike Nichols
5. David Cronenberg
6. Paul Thomas Anderson (yup!)
7. Francis Ford Coppola
8. Tim Burton
9. Sean Penn
10. Marc Forster
Other Contenders: Julian Schnabel (yup!)

Once again, I totally missed the whole Michael Clayton and Juno thing. That kind of messed up my numbers. But it was early in the year, this year should be better, given how late in the season it is.