A Little Technical Analysis

I always like to take a deeper look at each nominee in each category. I find this is a great aid in making my prediction choices. You can look at a list of five films and make a decision. But I find myself sometimes making different choices when I weigh the films against each other. Qualities stand out that you may not notice on first glance. And assuming that Academy members spend more than 10 seconds thinking about their choices (at least a good portion of them), this is a more accurate way to look at the choices.

So, I’ll start with the technical categories. Before next weekend, I’ll look at the acting categories, picture/director/writing, and the leftover categories (shorts, foreign, documentary, animation, and music).


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
FOR IT: Nominated for the ASC Award. Roger Deakins has gotten seven Oscar nominations in the last 13 years, but he’s never won. AGAINST IT: Deakins is also up for his work in No Country, a movie the voters will have seen. All the nominees were up for the ASC. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 10%

Atonement
FOR IT: That tracking shot on the beach. A best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Seamus McGarvey’s first nomination – he’s not in the club yet. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
FOR IT: The camera plays the main character for the first 40 minutes of the film! Janusz Kaminski is the legendary cinematographer of Schindler’s List. AGAINST IT: Kaminski has won twice already. Not a best picture contender. 20%

No Country from Old Men
FOR IT: Deakins has been nominated for four Coen Brother’s films. He’s due. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as its major competition – Diving Bell and Blood. CHANGES FOR WINNING: 25%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: This one actually won the ASC Award! It’s got the flash, wiz, bang that the voters (the whole membership, not just the cinematographers) love. AGAINST IT: Robert Elswitt is young. This is only his second nomination. CHANGES FOR WINNING: 30%


BEST EDITING

The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: Won the BAFTA. Lots of editing with quick cuts = noticeable editing. AGAINST IT: The editing award almost always goes to a picture contender, usually the winner. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
FOR IT: Amazing montages and flashbacks. AGAINST IT: First time nominee. Not a picture nominee. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Into the Wild
FOR IT: Lots of different locations and scenary shots. AGAINST: Just about everything. Not a picture or director nominee and Jay Cassidy is a first time nominee. The lack of nominations shows that much of the Academy had little affection for the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: Likely to win Best Picture, and Roderick Jaynes was nominated for Fargo but didn’t win. Also, Jaynes is imaginary – it’s really the Coen Brothers. AGAINST IT: Some could find the cutesiness of the pseudonym annoying. CHANCES FOR WINNING 40%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: Epics do well in this category, as they are seen as being hard to put together. Also, a serious best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Dylan Tichenor is a first time nominee. Some people thought the film could use a little more editing. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%


BEST ART DIRECTION

American Gangster
FOR IT: Huge period sets, two previous nominees. AGAINST IT: Recent period films are generally not showy enough to impress many members. Not a picture nominee. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Atonement
FOR IT: The decadence of the upper-crust English countryside, and the ravages of war (especially the stunningly designed set piece at Dunkirk) all in one film. Both designers were previously nominated for Pride & Prejudice. Won the BAFTA. AGAINST IT: These Brits may not be well known in American circles. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

The Golden Compass
FOR IT: The biggest films of the bunch, previous winner Dennis Gassner (Bugsy) and nominee Anna Pinnock (Gosford Park) had to create a London, Finland, and North Pole somewhere between the past and the future. AGAINST IT: People didn’t like the film much. How much of it was digital? CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Sweeney Todd
FOR IT: Gothic beauty in every shot. The streets of London have never looked so haunting. Dante Ferretti is the man, with nine nominations under his belt and one win for the Aviator. AGAINST IT: Not a lot of support for the film. It takes place primarily at one location. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: The sets fell authentic and lived in. A serious picture contender. It won the Production Designers Guild. AGAINST IT: The authenticity makes the sets feel more functional than beautiful – and beauty is what they want. Both designers are first time nominees. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Across the Universe
FOR IT: It’s period. This is the sixth nomination for Albert Wolsky, who has two previous wins, for Bugsy and All That Jazz. AGAINST IT: The film wasn’t loved, so most people probably didn’t see it. The rule for period films is the longer ago it was, the more votes it gets. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Atonement
FOR IT: That green dress is already iconic. The clothes are important throughout the film, without being a self-conscious fashion show. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as some of the other nominees. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Elizabeth: The Golden Age
FOR IT: The oldest period and the most elaborate costumes, by far. Alexandra Byrne has been nominated four time (including for the first Elizabeth), but has never won. AGAINST IT: Lack of affection for the film itself could lead people to ignore it. These types of costumes have been done before….a lot. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

La Vie En Rose
FOR IT: Probably would get the award for the most costume changes (always a good indicator). Takes us from 1918 all the way to 1963. AGAINST IT: First time nominee. Recent periods. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Sweeney Todd
FOR IT: The amazing Colleen Atwood (7 nominations and 2 wins in the last 13 years). The costumes feel layered, textured, and lived in. AGAINST IT: A lack of costume changes. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST MAKEUP

La Vie En Rose
FOR IT: The gorgeous Marion Cotillard is transformed into the distinctive Edith Piaf from her youth to her ravaged middle age. The only nominee in the category that is a contender in others. AGAINST IT: First time nominees. Not much else. CHANCES OF WINNING: 60%

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
FOR IT: Lots of previous nominations and wins. A lot of work. AGAINST IT: Lots of the biggest makeup jobs were digital. The franchise is stale. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Norbit
FOR IT: The king of makeup artists – Rick Baker (11 nominations and 5 wins). AGAINST IT: Absolute hate for the film and the characters Eddie Murphy plays under that makeup. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Golden Compass
FOR IT: The only nominee to create characters never before visualized. Had to deal with extensive human interaction with their creations. AGAINST IT: Some of the effects look rushed. The film wasn’t loved. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
FOR IT: The series has had some truly groundbreaking effects, especially in the digital makeup realm. These guys all have at least three nominations to their names. AGAINST IT: They already won for Pirates 2, for pretty much the same stuff. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Transformers
FOR IT: These guys are old pros. There are no seams in the work – or at least none you can see with the camera and cuts moving so fast. AGAINST IT: It’s easier to animate robots than creatures with a pulse. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%


BEST SOUND MIXING

3:10 to Yuma
FOR IT: Great sound is hard in a film that takes place almost entirely outdoors. AGAINST IT: It’s not a picture contender or a huge blockbuster – the two groups that usually dominate this category. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: The three guys are all previous nominees, two are winners. It’s in the blockbuster category. AGAINST IT: There is a bigger blockbuster in this category. This series is known more for its distinctive visuals than its sound. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: The only best picture nominee in the category – and it’s likely to win. Most of the film lacks a score, making it important that the sound is flawless, which it was. It won the CAS Awards. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as the “big” movies in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Ratatouille
FOR IT: All of these guys are big time stuff, especially 14 time nominee Randy Thom. AGAINST IT: Animated films usually do better in the Sound Editing category, which has more to do with creating sounds from scratch. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Transformers
FOR IT: Oh my god! This is Kevin O’Connell’s 20th (!) nomination without EVER winning! We can’t forget his partner Greg P Russell; this is his 12th nomination without a win. And this is the loudest, highest grossing film in the category. It could finally be his year! AGAINST IT: People don’t know that they are voting for the Susan Lucci of the Oscars – they just see the film name. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%


BEST SOUND EDITING

The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: Like the sound mixing category, loud and popular movies are favored – it fact, even more so in this category. AGAINST IT: There are louder movies and two best picture contenders here. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: The big picture contender. There are lots scenes without dialog or music, which brings attention to the sound effects work. AGAINST IT: No explosions or robots. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%

Ratatouille
FOR IT: Again, Randy Thom and Michael Silvers are many time nominees and winners. They have to build every sound from scratch in animation. AGAINST IT: They won before for The Incredibles, a much louder, action packed film. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Transformers
FOR IT: The loudest movie with lots of sounds that had to be created. These guys won twice before for King Kong and The Two Towers. AGAINST IT: Not a lot of love for the movie itself. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: Amazing set pieces with interesting sound. The opening scenes of silence bring attention to the sound. AGAINST IT: The huge score may overwhelm the other sound in the picture. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%

The British are Here

The Academy Awards are upon us – the British Academy that is. They are usually my favorite awards show of the year; though last year was a bit lackluster, with the usual, hilarious host Stephen Fry being replaced by boring talk show host Jonathon Ross. Ross will be hosting against this year, which is disappointing. Oh well, the awards themselves are usually great.

I usually agree with the winners at the BAFTAs a little more than the Oscars. They tend to aim for the best of this year, rather than weighing the politics of who has won what and who deserves what. That said, I’m significantly worse at predicting the winners of the BAFTAs.

Below are this year’s nominees. No category matches the Oscar nominations five for five. Most are 2 or 3, less than most years. I still think we will be seeing a lot of the same winners. Those nominated for an Oscar are in bold and my predictions are in italics. After the awards, I will put a star next to the winners.

The BAFTAs air on BBC America at 5pm on Sunday.

BEST FILM
AMERICAN GANGSTER
*ATONEMENT
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

BEST BRITISH FILM
ATONEMENT 

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
CONTROL
EASTERN PROMISES
*THIS IS ENGLAND

THE CARL FOREMAN AWARD FOR SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT BY A BRITISH DIRECTOR, WRITER OR PRODUCER IN THEIR FIRST FEATURE FILM
CHRIS ATKINS (Director/Writer) – Taking Liberties

MIA BAYS (Producer) – Scott Walker: 30 Century Man

SARAH GAVRON (Director) – Brick Lane

*MATT GREENHALGH (Writer) – Control

ANDREW PIDDINGTON (Director/Writer) – The Killing of John Lennon

DIRECTOR
ATONEMENT – Joe Wright

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM – Paul Greengrass

THE LIVES OF OTHERS – Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck

*NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Joel Coen/Ethan Coen

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Paul Thomas Anderson

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Steven Zaillian

*JUNO – Diablo Cody

THE LIVES OF OTHERS – Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck

MICHAEL CLAYTON – Tony Gilroy

THIS IS ENGLAND – Shane Meadows

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ATONEMENT – Christopher Hampton

*THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY – Ronald Harwood

THE KITE RUNNER – David Benioff

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Joel Coen/Ethan Coen

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Paul Thomas Anderson

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY 

THE KITE RUNNER 

*THE LIVES OF OTHERS 

LUST, CAUTION 

LA VIE EN ROSE

ANIMATED FILM
*RATATOUILLE – Brad Bird 

SHREK THE THIRD – Chris Miller

THE SIMPSONS MOVIE – David Silverman

LEADING ACTOR
GEORGE CLOONEY – Michael Clayton

*DANIEL DAY-LEWIS – There Will Be Blood

JAMES McAVOY – Atonement

VIGGO MORTENSEN – Eastern Promises

ULRICH MÜHE – The Lives of Others

LEADING ACTRESS
CATE BLANCHETT – Elizabeth: The Golden Age

JULIE CHRISTIE – Away From Her

MARION COTILLARD – La Vie en Rose

KEIRA KNIGHTLEY – Atonement 

ELLEN PAGE – Juno

SUPPORTING ACTOR
*JAVIER BARDEM – No Country for Old Men

PAUL DANO – There Will Be Blood

TOMMY LEE JONES – No Country for Old Men

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – Charlie Wilson’s War

TOM WILKINSON – Michael Clayton

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
CATE BLANCHETT – I’m Not There

KELLY MACDONALD – No Country for Old Men

SAMANTHA MORTON – Control 

SAOIRSE RONAN – Atonement 

*TILDA SWINTON – Michael Clayton

MUSIC
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Marc Streitenfeld

ATONEMENT – Dario Marianelli 

THE KITE RUNNER – Alberto Iglesias

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Jonny Greenwood

*LA VIE EN ROSE – Christopher Gunning

CINEMATOGRAPHY
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Harris Savides

ATONEMENT – Seamus McGarvey

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM – Oliver Wood

*NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Roger Deakins

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Robert Elswit

EDITING
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Pietro Scalia

ATONEMENT – Paul Tothill

*THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM – Christopher Rouse

MICHAEL CLAYTON – John Gilroy

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Roderick Jaynes

PRODUCTION DESIGN
*ATONEMENT
ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE 

HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
THERE WILL BE BLOOD
LA VIE EN ROSE

COSTUME DESIGN
ATONEMENT 

ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE 

LUST, CAUTION
SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET 

*LA VIE EN ROSE

SOUND
ATONEMENT 

*THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN 

THERE WILL BE BLOOD 

LA VIE EN ROSE

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM 

*THE GOLDEN COMPASS
HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S 

SPIDER-MAN 3

MAKE UP & HAIR
ATONEMENT 

HAIRSPRAY 

SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET 

*LA VIE EN ROSE

SHORT ANIMATION
*THE PEARCE SISTERS 

THE CRUMBLEGIANT

SHORT FILM
*DOG ALTOGETHER 

HESITATION 

THE ONE AND ONLY HERB MCGWYER PLAYS WALLIS ISLAND
SOFT 

THE STRONGER

Initial Thoughts

Overall, I am very happy with the nominations this year. The films are deserving and there is no distinct frontrunner. In my predictions, I mostly erred in following the path of Into the Wild through the guilds. I should have gone with my gut instinct all season on that film - that it wouldn't appeal to the older Academy voters. Oh well. I still got a respectable, 67% overall and 73% in the major categories. If I give myself half points for the spoiler choices it bumps up to 75% and 81% respectively. Not too bad, but I've done better. There is always next year.

Now that the race for the win is on, here's your list of films to see before the big show, in order of priority. I actually calculated based on number of nominations, weighing big categories more than smaller ones (giving no weight to whether I thought they were likely to win those categories). Let's see how far down the list we get this year. There's only 47 films, so it shouldn't take more than 100 hours.

1. Michael Clayton
2. There Will Be Blood
3. No Country for Old Men
4. Atonement
5. Juno
6. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
7. Ratatouille
8. Away from Her
9. The Savages
10. Sweeney Todd
11. La Vie En Rose
12. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
13. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
14. Eastern Promises
15. In the Valley of Elah
16. Into the Wild (can you believe how low this is!)
17. American Gangster
18. Charlie Wilson's War
19. I'm Not There
20. Gone Baby Gone
21. Mongol
22. The Counterfeiters
23. 12
24. Beaufort
25. Katyn
26. Transformers
27. Lars and the Real Girl
28. The Bourne Ultimatum
29. 3:10 to Yuma
30. Enchanted
31. No End in Sight
32. Sicko
33. War/Dance
34. Taxi to the Dark Side
35. Operation Homecoming
36. Persepolis
37. Surf's Up
38. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
39. The Golden Compass
40. The Kite Runner
41. Across the Universe
42. Once
43. August Rush
44. The Animated Shorts
45. The Live-Action Shorts
46. The Documentary Shorts

And only, only if you've seen all of those. As a last resort....
47. Norbit

I've seen 15 already and plan on doubling that before the big night. Race you there!

The Final Countdown

I’ve been sorely absent this season. But if there was ever a season to do it, it’s definitely the one where the ceremony might not even happen. Let it be known, that I don’t actually think this will happen. I’ll elaborate on my thoughts on that later. I’ve been enjoying watching the build passively and panicking every time I think about all that I haven’t written.

But I had to put in my final nomination predictions. This is my very favorite part of the race. I’m better at predicting the nominations then the winners. I usually go five for five in a few categories, three for five in a few more, and four for five in most. There is usually one or so two for fives.

I think I’ve done a pretty good job this year. I’ve tried taking a step back and going back to my old techniques and ignoring the buzz. I did much better before the explosion of Oscar coverage of the last three or so years. So, I’ve gone back to my old mathematical techniques of weighing the early awards, the BAFTAs, and the Guilds.

When it comes to Best Picture, I think it’s important to look for films with broad support across categories. This year it was very difficult to narrow down the five pics as it was such a strong year. In general, the math came out in favor of the consensus. The funny thing is, most people are ignoring the consensus in favor of the buzz. There is a difference.

Without further ado:

BEST PICTURE
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, Juno, American Gangster

MY REASONING: This is the DGA list exacting, which seems stupid to predict. I added up everything, looked at it from every angle, and this list consistently came out on top. Diving Bell would be the first foreign film with a best picture nomination that wasn’t a big hit. But when you see the support it has across the guilds, it’s impossible to ignore. I resisted leaving Juno and Atonement out for a long time – but Atonement was left out by the directors, actors, producers, writers, and editors. And I can’t justify leaving any of the others out in favor of Juno. So, there you go.

BEST DIRECTOR
Joe Wright – Atonement
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn – Into the Wild
Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton, Sidney Lumet – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

MY REASONING: Coen, Amderson, and Schnabel are shoe-ins. The Academy loves actors turned directors like Penn. I give the lone director slot to Wright because the old-school directors in the Academy will appreciate his accomplishment.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch – Into the Wild
James McAvoy – Atonement
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
POSSIBLE SPOILERS – Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd, Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl

MY REASONING: It is shocking how little support Sweeney Todd has gotten. Depp didn’t get a SAG nomination. SAG went for Gosling, but I think some people won’t like the film or see the work as minor compared to Half Nelson last year. McAvoy’s is a star-making performance.

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Keira Knightley – Atonement

MY REASONING: Christie, Cotillard, and Page are shoe-ins. Jolie hasn’t been nominated since her win almost a decade ago. I did a last minute switcharoo between Linney and Blanchett. I think when the actors are filling out their ballots they’ll think one nod is enough for Miss Blanchett (for supporting) and spread the wealth around.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James…
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men, Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War

MY REASONING – There are four shoe-ins and a wild card. I don’t see people being passionate about Hoffman’s performance. I originally slotted in Jones, but made a last minute split for Von Sydow. He was nominated for Pell the Conqueror decades ago. When people talk about how heart-wrenching his performance is, they forget to mention that he is also playing a Frenchman. He’s Swedish! I think the older voters may remember this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Saoirse Ronan – Atonement, Jennifer Garner – Juno

MY REASONING: I went for the sentimental choice for my fifth slot with Ruby Dee. I personally thought she was awesome. Her SAG nomination probably made a lot of people think about that just in time.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eastern Promises
Juno
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lars and the Real Girl, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

MY REASONING: This was a hard category to fill in this year. Everything is adapted! I decided to slot in Ratatouille because it is one of the only animated films ever with a single writer and it’s about art and passion. Then a chose Eastern Promises over Lars because I just can’t see them going for the blow up doll movie.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Away from Her, Zodiac

MY REASONING: Despite the plethora of quality choices, I found this list rather easy to come up with. I think only a last minute surge for Zodiac would chance it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jess James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild

MY REASONING: This is the ASC list exactly, and it’s hard to argue with.

BEST EDITING
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, The Bourne Ultimatum

MY REASONING: A repeat of my Picture list; another thing that gives me confidence in my choices. All of these got ACE nods except Diving Bell.

BEST ART DIRECTION
300
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: American Gangster, The Golden Compass

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lust, Caution, American Gangster

MAKE UP
300
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
La Vie En Rose
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sweeney Todd, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

VISUAL EFFECTS
300
I Am Legend
Transformers
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Bourne Ultimatum, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, 300

BEST SOUND EDITING
300
Beowulf
The Bourne Ultimatum
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Ratatouille, I Am Legeng

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Ratatouille
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lust, Caution

MY REASONING: The news just came out that Johnny Greenwood's amazing score for There WIll Be Blood is ineligible due to use of other music and references to other music in it. Lame.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Come So Far” – Hairspray
“Do You Fell Me” – American Gangster
“Falling Slowly” – Once
“Guaranteed” – Into the Wild
“Rise” – Into the Wild
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: “Society” – Into the Wild, “If You Want Me” – Once

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nanking
No End in Sight
The Rape of Europa
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Operation Homecoming, Lake of Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bee Movie
Persepolis
Ratatouille
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Simpsons Movie, Beowulf

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Days of Darkness
Katyn
Mongol
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Unknown Woman, 12

MY REASONING: This list is ridiculous, and choosing five films from nine that haven’t been released in the United States is ridiculous. So, I kind of went the random route.


There you have it. Some of these will be wrong, but I think it’s pretty solid. I’m hoping to get 80%, the high end of my usual. Here are the tallies:

Into the Wild – 10
There Will Be Blood - 9
No Country for Old Men - 7
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – 7
Michael Clayton – 6

Atonement – 7
300 - 4
La Vie En Rose – 3
The Assassination of Jesse James… - 3
Sweeney Todd - 3
Juno – 2 (*The fact that it is so likely to get so few nominations is why I took it off my Best Picture list)
The Savages - 2
Eastern Promises – 2
American Gangster – 2
Ratatouille – 2
Elizabeth: The Golden Age – 2
Hairspray – 2
The Bourne Ultimatum - 2
Transformers - 2
Away From Her – 1
A Mighty Heart – 1
I’m Not There – 1
Gone Baby Gone – 1
I Am Legend – 1
The Kite Runner - 1

The State of the State of the Race

I know it's been a long time. I was excessively busy with school and work for a while, then I had a hard time coming up with what to write. I've been planning on putting up an early look at the "other" film categories (Foreign, Documentary, etc), and I still plan to. In the mean time, I wanted to throw my two-cents in on the race so far.

Here's something I've learned increasingly this years. I'm getting very annoyed with Oscar sites. I love the information they put together for me, and the analysis of what was included by this critics association, what was left out by that one, and what that all means for the films hopes of Oscar glory. I love the collections of FYC ads and the predictions for nominations.

If the sites would stick to this type of analysis - I would be happy. But I increasingly find myself sifting through blatant love letter campaigns for a favorite film or performance, personal feelings of hate for a certain producer or film, shit-talking about other sites, defamation of the character of critics as a way of discounting their opinions, and a constant comparison of who knows more about the race and who is clueless. I'm sick of this stuff. It's taking the fun out of the game. I don't want to talk any further about this, as it will turn into exactly the kind of rhetoric I dislike and I believe sullies everything I love about awards season.

Back to the real subject of this blog! I've enjoyed the critics lists so far. I've been glad to see really interesting, and justifiable, choices on most of their parts. There is no consensus - which makes for an exciting year. I don't report on them individually, as that's just not the kind of site I'm running. I prefer to see them all come out and then look at them as a whole. I believe this is where their significance to the race lies. We find general trends (Helen Mirren sweeping every single one last year) that may carry through. We see the films that did not get the support they needed. And we can narrow (or widen!) our lists a little.

Tomorrow, the Golden Globe nominations come out. And while I think their significance to the Oscar race has been almost completely diminished, I'll do a little piece on it and the Critics Choice nominations. The fun part is just beginning!

Craftian Prophecies

The “For Your Consideration” ads are officially abound. But if you want to be a real Oscarite insider you’ll call them FYCs from now on… or not. So, it's officially on.

I’m almost finished with my super early predictions. I’ve got the tech awards here – or “Craft Awards”, as you know from my thoughts on the subject last year. This year is shaping up interestingly. I think the techs will be a little easier. There is more traditional Oscar-fodder. Last year there was a dearth of period and fantasy work leaving films like The Devil Wears Prada and The Queen to pick up Costume nominations. Even if a film like Elizabeth: The Golden Age flops with every critic (which it did) it should still get some love from the craftsy people.

This time last year I managed to correctly predict an average of 2 ½ future nominees correctly in these categories.

Without further ado…


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ATONEMENT
2. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
3. THERE WILL BE BLOOD (This 1,2,3 is beginning to look familiar)
4. SWEENEY TODD
5. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
6. LUST, CAUTION (4,5, and 6 will be critic proof in a few of these categories)
7. THE KITE RUNNER
8. AMERICAN GANGSTER
9. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
10. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
Other Contenders: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, I’m Not There, Into the Wild, Youth Without Youth, 3:10 to Yuma

BEST EDITING
1. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
2. AMERICAN GANGSTER
3. ATONEMENT
4. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
5. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
6. THE KITE RUNNER
7. MICHAEL CLAYTON
8. I’M NOT THERE
9. INTO THE WILD
10. SWEENEY TODD
Other Contenders: Lions for Lambs, Youth Without Youth, Love in the Time of Cholera, 3:10 to Yuma, In the Valley of Elah

BEST ART DIRECTION
1. SWEENEY TODD
2. ATONEMENT
3. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
4. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
5. LUST, CAUTION
6. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
7. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
8. 300
9. ACROSS THE UNIVERSE
10. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
Other Contenders: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, 3:10 to Yuma, Hairspray, Beowulf, Stardust

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
2. SWEENEY TODD
3. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
4. ATONEMENT
5. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
6. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
7. LUST, CAUTION
8. HAIRSPRAY
9. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
10. GOYA’S GHOSTS
Other Contenders: 3:10 to Yuma, Becoming Jane, Stardust, Leatherheads, 300

BEST MAKEUP
1. STARDUST
2. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
3. 300
4. SWEENEY TODD
5. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
6. HAIRSPRAY
7. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
8. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
9. EASTERN PROMISES
10. ATONEMENT
Other Contenders: There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Spider-Man 3

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. BEOWULF
2. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
3. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
4. TRANSFORMERS
5. HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
6. 300
7. SPIDER-MAN 3
8. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
9. ATONEMENT
10. STARDUST

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. SWEENEY TODD
2. TRANSFORMERS
3. ATONEMENT
4. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
5. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
6. BEOWULF
7. HAIRSPRAY
8. THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
9. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
10. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Other Contenders: American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, Into the Wild, The Kite Runner, Lust, Caution

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
1. RATATOUILLE
2. BEOWULF
3. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
4. TRANSFORMERS
5. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
6. THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
7. 300
8. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
9. ATONEMENT
10. HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
Other Contenders: Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild, 3:10 to Yuma

I’ll try to be back sooner than later with a brief look at the “Other kinds of movies” categories and music.

Eenie Meenie Minnie Oh!

Predicting the Supporting Actor categories is nearly impossible this early in the game. While there is rarely more than one leading performance in any given film, there can be dozens in the Supporting arena. So, let’s say there are 300 eligible films released in the year. 200 of those are not even to be considered (of the Deuce Bigelow, documentary, or indie that played in one theatre variety). Of the 100 left, 50 have already been released and only maybe 20 of them will be remembered. You’re now down to 70. (Only about 30 of these will even have a Lead Actress.) That’s a manageable number. Prestige factor, previous record of the lead actor, and early buzz will get you down to a solid 20 or 30.

But let’s take an example of a prestige movie coming out that hasn’t been seen – Charlie Wilson’s War. We can safely put Tom Hanks in the lead category and guess that is where they will put Julia Roberts (1 Male Lead and 1 Female Lead). That leaves Amy Adams, Emily Blunt, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Ned Beatty as the other name actors. While we know all of these actors are capable of great work, we have no idea the size or challenge of the parts they are going to play.

Last year, looking at Little Miss Sunshine from afar, it looked like Steve Carrell or Greg Kinnear might be nominees, but it was Alan Arkin who had the scene-stealing role. If you had an average of two possibilities in each category from the 70 films we are considering, that is 140 possibilities for each category. So, I’m giving myself five extra “other contender” choices.

So, my point with all this is… take these predictions with a grain of salt… or five.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Javier Bardem – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – One of the first shoe-ins of the year. Not a single review of this film doesn’t rave about his performance. It’s just a matter of category for him. But since he’s the villain (I believe) they’ll probably put him in supporting… unless they do it like Hopkins for Silence of the Lambs (the 22 minute “Lead” performance).

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Pure hearsay. They say he’s got a meaty role... in a Mike Nicholls film. Sounds good to me.

3. Casey Affleck – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD – Like I said, he’s having a break out year. It’s hard to tell at this point which film he may be recognized for. I don’t see a double nomination at this point.

4. Paul Dano – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – This is a hard one to assess at this point. From the trailers it looks like a very showy role – as a small town evangelical preacher. But it’s hard to tell if he really pulls it off, or its too difficult a role for so young an actor. If he pulls it off, he’ll be in here.

5. Hal Holbrook – INTO THE WILD – There are a lot of short supporting roles in this film, but this is the one that has gotten the most attention. And they love an older actor who does their best work in years. And he’s really old.

6. Alan Rickman – SWEENEY TOOD – Again, it’s hard to tell when the film hasn’t been seen yet. But you’ve got to figure, Alan Rickman in a period musical just sounds like a winner.

7. Ethan Hawke – BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD – The buzz for this one is growing. The critics say Hawke and Phil Hoffman do some of their best work ever.

8. Tom Wilkinson – MICHAEL CLAYTON – He’s a lawyer who goes crazy and calls himself “Shiva, the God of Death”. Awardsville stuff.

9. John Travolta – HAIRSPRAY – With very low expectations, people were very surprised at just how convincing Travolta was as a singing, dancing fat woman. (I’m not sure why… other than the creepy makeup.)

10. Philip Boscoe – THE SAVAGES – This is another one of those older actors shining after many years.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Chiwetel Ejiofer – American Gangster
Albert Finney – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men
Bruno Ganz – Youth Without Youth
Sacha Baron Cohen – Sweeney Todd
Ed Harris – Gone Baby Gone
Peter Fonda – 3:10 to Yuma
Ben Foster – 3:10 to Yuma
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jeff Daniels – The Lookout
Chris Cooper – Breach
Andy Griffith – Waitress
Mark Ruffalo – Reservation Road
Christian Bale – I’m Not There
Armin Mueller Stahl – Eastern Promises


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – I’M NOT THERE – Even voters who refuse to see this “experimental” film may vote for her. She really proves herself to be the greatest actor (gender regardless) of her generation.

2. Saoire Ronam – ATONEMENT – She’s gotten more buzz than the two actresses she shares her role with, which is impressive given they are Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai. She also scored the lead in The Lovely Bones, Peter Jackson’s next film, which means she will probably be an actress to be reckoned with.

3. Meryl Streel - LIONS FOR LAMBS – The film hasn’t been seen, but it’s Meryl Streep so you can probably count on it.

4. Vanessa Redgrave – ATONEMENT – She’s got the Gloria Stuart role... and good reviews.

5. Jennifer Connelly – RESERVATION ROAD – The fact that they are keeping her in the supporting category means they probably thinks she’ll have a good chance at it.

6. Abbie Cornish – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Even in the reviews that didn’t like the film, Cornish has been singled out as a highlight as Eliabeth’s lady-in-waiting.

7. Tilda Swinton – MICHAEL CLAYTON – A solid character actress in a solid supporting role.

8. Olympia Dukakis – AWAY FROM HER – If they really love this film (and bother to see it), she may be pulled along.

9. Michelle Pfeiffer – HAIRSPRAY – She got good reviews for both of her films this year, but this one was better liked.

10. Susan Sarandon – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – Solid reviews for a veteran Oscar-winner.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Romola Garai – Atonement
Marisa Tomei – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Kelly MacDonald – No Country for Old Men
Jennifer Jason Leigh – Margot at the Wedding
Marcia Gay Harden – Into the Wild
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Jennifer Garner – Juno
Amy Adams – Charlie Wilson’s War
Evan Rachel Wood – In Bloom
Mira Sorvino – Reservation Road
Renee Zellweger – Leatherheads
Brenda Blethyn – Atonement
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Joan Chen – Lust, Caution

Here are my picks from this time last year. I guess I should be happy with 2 ½ in each category considering how hard this is. But I can’t help shaking my head at year-ago me.

1. Jack Nicholson – The Departed
2. Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (right!)
3. Brad Pitt – Babel
4. Ben Affleck – Hollywoodland
5. Steve Carrell – Little Miss Sunshine
6. Michael Sheen – The Queen
7. Gael Garcia Bernal – Babel
8. Tobey Maguire – The Good German
9. Brian Cox – Running With Scissors
10. Mark Wahlberg – The Departed (right!)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children (right!)
* I had even seen Little Miss Sunshine and didn’t put Arkin on here! But no one had seen Blood Diamond so I won’t kick myself about missing Djimon Hounsou.

1. Cate Blanchett – Babel (wrong film!)
2. Angelina Jolei – The Good Shepherd
3. Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (right!)
4. Jennifer Connelly – Little Children
5. Emma Thompson – Stranger Than Fiction
6. Juliette Binoche – Breaking and Entering
7. Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada (yes, but in the wrong category)
8. Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine (right!)
9. Carmen Maura – Volver
10. Shareeka Epps – Half Nelson
OTHER CONTENDERS: Cate Blanchett – NOTES ON A SCANDAL (right!)
• As Babel hadn’t come out yet, I had no way of predicting the nominations of Adrianna Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. So there.

I have a feeling I did better this year, but who knows really.