So, I’ll start with the technical categories. Before next weekend, I’ll look at the acting categories, picture/director/writing, and the leftover categories (shorts, foreign, documentary, animation, and music).
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford FOR IT: Nominated for the ASC Award. Roger Deakins has gotten seven Oscar nominations in the last 13 years, but he’s never won. AGAINST IT: Deakins is also up for his work in No Country, a movie the voters will have seen. All the nominees were up for the ASC. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 10%
Atonement
FOR IT: That tracking shot on the beach. A best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Seamus McGarvey’s first nomination – he’s not in the club yet. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
FOR IT: The camera plays the main character for the first 40 minutes of the film! Janusz Kaminski is the legendary cinematographer of Schindler’s List. AGAINST IT: Kaminski has won twice already. Not a best picture contender. 20%
No Country from Old Men
FOR IT: Deakins has been nominated for four Coen Brother’s films. He’s due. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as its major competition – Diving Bell and Blood. CHANGES FOR WINNING: 25%
There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: This one actually won the ASC Award! It’s got the flash, wiz, bang that the voters (the whole membership, not just the cinematographers) love. AGAINST IT: Robert Elswitt is young. This is only his second nomination. CHANGES FOR WINNING: 30%
BEST EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: Won the BAFTA. Lots of editing with quick cuts = noticeable editing. AGAINST IT: The editing award almost always goes to a picture contender, usually the winner. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
FOR IT: Amazing montages and flashbacks. AGAINST IT: First time nominee. Not a picture nominee. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%
Into the Wild
FOR IT: Lots of different locations and scenary shots. AGAINST: Just about everything. Not a picture or director nominee and Jay Cassidy is a first time nominee. The lack of nominations shows that much of the Academy had little affection for the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%
No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: Likely to win Best Picture, and Roderick Jaynes was nominated for Fargo but didn’t win. Also, Jaynes is imaginary – it’s really the Coen Brothers. AGAINST IT: Some could find the cutesiness of the pseudonym annoying. CHANCES FOR WINNING 40%
There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: Epics do well in this category, as they are seen as being hard to put together. Also, a serious best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Dylan Tichenor is a first time nominee. Some people thought the film could use a little more editing. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%
BEST ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
FOR IT: Huge period sets, two previous nominees. AGAINST IT: Recent period films are generally not showy enough to impress many members. Not a picture nominee. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%
AtonementFOR IT: The decadence of the upper-crust English countryside, and the ravages of war (especially the stunningly designed set piece at Dunkirk) all in one film. Both designers were previously nominated for Pride & Prejudice. Won the BAFTA. AGAINST IT: These Brits may not be well known in American circles. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%
The Golden Compass
FOR IT: The biggest films of the bunch, previous winner Dennis Gassner (Bugsy) and nominee Anna Pinnock (Gosford Park) had to create a London, Finland, and North Pole somewhere between the past and the future. AGAINST IT: People didn’t like the film much. How much of it was digital? CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%
Sweeney Todd
FOR IT: Gothic beauty in every shot. The streets of London have never looked so haunting. Dante Ferretti is the man, with nine nominations under his belt and one win for the Aviator. AGAINST IT: Not a lot of support for the film. It takes place primarily at one location. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%
There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: The sets fell authentic and lived in. A serious picture contender. It won the Production Designers Guild. AGAINST IT: The authenticity makes the sets feel more functional than beautiful – and beauty is what they want. Both designers are first time nominees. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe
FOR IT: It’s period. This is the sixth nomination for Albert Wolsky, who has two previous wins, for Bugsy and All That Jazz. AGAINST IT: The film wasn’t loved, so most people probably didn’t see it. The rule for period films is the longer ago it was, the more votes it gets. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%
Atonement
FOR IT: That green dress is already iconic. The clothes are important throughout the film, without being a self-conscious fashion show. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as some of the other nominees. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
FOR IT: The oldest period and the most elaborate costumes, by far. Alexandra Byrne has been nominated four time (including for the first Elizabeth), but has never won. AGAINST IT: Lack of affection for the film itself could lead people to ignore it. These types of costumes have been done before….a lot. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%
La Vie En Rose
FOR IT: Probably would get the award for the most costume changes (always a good indicator). Takes us from 1918 all the way to 1963. AGAINST IT: First time nominee. Recent periods. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%
Sweeney Todd
FOR IT: The amazing Colleen Atwood (7 nominations and 2 wins in the last 13 years). The costumes feel layered, textured, and lived in. AGAINST IT: A lack of costume changes. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%
BEST MAKEUP
La Vie En RoseFOR IT: The gorgeous Marion Cotillard is transformed into the distinctive Edith Piaf from her youth to her ravaged middle age. The only nominee in the category that is a contender in others. AGAINST IT: First time nominees. Not much else. CHANCES OF WINNING: 60%
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
FOR IT: Lots of previous nominations and wins. A lot of work. AGAINST IT: Lots of the biggest makeup jobs were digital. The franchise is stale. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%
Norbit
FOR IT: The king of makeup artists – Rick Baker (11 nominations and 5 wins). AGAINST IT: Absolute hate for the film and the characters Eddie Murphy plays under that makeup. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
FOR IT: The only nominee to create characters never before visualized. Had to deal with extensive human interaction with their creations. AGAINST IT: Some of the effects look rushed. The film wasn’t loved. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
FOR IT: The series has had some truly groundbreaking effects, especially in the digital makeup realm. These guys all have at least three nominations to their names. AGAINST IT: They already won for Pirates 2, for pretty much the same stuff. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%
Transformers
FOR IT: These guys are old pros. There are no seams in the work – or at least none you can see with the camera and cuts moving so fast. AGAINST IT: It’s easier to animate robots than creatures with a pulse. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%
BEST SOUND MIXING
3:10 to YumaFOR IT: Great sound is hard in a film that takes place almost entirely outdoors. AGAINST IT: It’s not a picture contender or a huge blockbuster – the two groups that usually dominate this category. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%
The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: The three guys are all previous nominees, two are winners. It’s in the blockbuster category. AGAINST IT: There is a bigger blockbuster in this category. This series is known more for its distinctive visuals than its sound. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%
No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: The only best picture nominee in the category – and it’s likely to win. Most of the film lacks a score, making it important that the sound is flawless, which it was. It won the CAS Awards. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as the “big” movies in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%
Ratatouille
FOR IT: All of these guys are big time stuff, especially 14 time nominee Randy Thom. AGAINST IT: Animated films usually do better in the Sound Editing category, which has more to do with creating sounds from scratch. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%
Transformers
FOR IT: Oh my god! This is Kevin O’Connell’s 20th (!) nomination without EVER winning! We can’t forget his partner Greg P Russell; this is his 12th nomination without a win. And this is the loudest, highest grossing film in the category. It could finally be his year! AGAINST IT: People don’t know that they are voting for the Susan Lucci of the Oscars – they just see the film name. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: Like the sound mixing category, loud and popular movies are favored – it fact, even more so in this category. AGAINST IT: There are louder movies and two best picture contenders here. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%
No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: The big picture contender. There are lots scenes without dialog or music, which brings attention to the sound effects work. AGAINST IT: No explosions or robots. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%
Ratatouille
FOR IT: Again, Randy Thom and Michael Silvers are many time nominees and winners. They have to build every sound from scratch in animation. AGAINST IT: They won before for The Incredibles, a much louder, action packed film. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%
Transformers
FOR IT: The loudest movie with lots of sounds that had to be created. These guys won twice before for King Kong and The Two Towers. AGAINST IT: Not a lot of love for the movie itself. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%
There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: Amazing set pieces with interesting sound. The opening scenes of silence bring attention to the sound. AGAINST IT: The huge score may overwhelm the other sound in the picture. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%
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