Emoting for Gold

The acting categories are interesting this year. The actors are locked – if Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem don’t win, it will be a shocker. But the ladies are wide open. Best Actress has an early frontrunner (Christie), a late-breaking frontrunner (Cotillard), a favorite (Page), and a dark horse (Linney). Supporting Actress has FIVE worthy contenders, who have all won pre-Oscar awards and buzz. Very frustrating. So, it may be helpful to weigh the pros and cons of each.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: People say it’s his best work ever. Nominated for every major pre-Oscar award. Lots of support for the film, especially for the acting. AGAINST HIM: He just won two years ago. Um, he’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Daniel Day-Lewis – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR HIM: Every single pre-Oscar award – BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe, etc. Long considered one of the greatest actors living. An iconic role. Beautiful acceptance speeches that show genuine gratitude, humility, and appreciation. AGAINST HIM: Maybe a little envy or backlash. CHANCES OF WINNING: 60%

Johnny Depp – SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
FOR HIM: Three nominations in the last five years and a twenty-year career the Academy is just aching to reward. He took on a difficult singing role and proved his mettle. AGAINST HIM: Not a lot of love for the film. The character was supremely unlikable. He’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Tommy Lee Jones – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
FOR HIM: The third nomination for the veteran actor. His most subtle, complex work in years. People may want to reward him for his work in No Country as well. AGAINST HIM: He’s won already. The film was mostly ignored. He’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Viggo Mortensen – EASTERN PROMISES
FOR HIM: This is the first nomination in an awesome career. He wrestles a dude naked, does a difficult accent, and had tattoos painted on everyday. AGAINST HIM: It’s not his year, because he’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
FOR HER: It’s a powerhouse performance for the greatest actress of this generation. She should have won for the first Elizabeth. AGAINST HER: People hated this movie. She’s got a better performance nominated in the supporting category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Julie Christie – AWAY FROM HER
FOR HER: A legend with four nominations. Her portrayal of an Alzheimer’s patient has won her most of the pre-Oscar awards – SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe. AGAINST HER: The buzz has died down since her lackluster speech at the SAG Awards, which unfortunately came a couple minutes after Day-Lewis’s tribute to Heath Ledger. She’s won before. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Marion Cotillard – LA VIE EN ROSE
FOR HER: The buzz. She’s been the late breaking contender, winning the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Once people actually see the film, it’s hard for them to vote against her portrayal of Edith Piaf from age 20 to 47. AGAINST HER: Love for Miss Christie. Did enough people see it in time? CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Laura Linney – THE SAVAGES
FOR HER: This is the third nomination for one of the most respected, mature actresses around. She goes to new places, unafraid of appearing vulnerable and pathetic. AGAINST HER: The film is probably too small and light to get people to see and vote for it. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Ellen Page – JUNO
FOR HER: Love for the film, and her unique, intelligent performance. The sense that this is a star-making performance. AGAINST HER: She’s young and it’s a comedy. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES…
FOR HIM: A banner year with this film and Gone Baby Gone. AGAINST HIM: He’s young, it’s his first nomination, and he’s proved to be a bit low on personality during the award season. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Javier Bardem – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR HIM: Almost all of the pre-Oscar awards. The only nominated performance in the biggest best picture contender. He’s been awesome at the award shows, adding just enough humor to go along with Day-Lewis’s thoughtfulness. AGAINST HIM: Overhype, maybe. CHANCES OF WINNING: 45%

Philip Seymour Hoffman – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
FOR HIM: He stole every scene from the two biggest stars of the last two decades. AGAINST HIM: A comedic role in a film with no other nominations. He just won two years ago. Absent from the award season activities. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Hal Holbrook – INTO THE WILD
FOR HIM: The sentimental choice. A heartbreaking role for a veteran actor with no previous Oscar attention. AGAINST HIM: Little support for the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Tom Wilkinson – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: A meaty, crazy role in a best picture contender. The veteran character actor has yet to win. AGAINST HIM: There’s another actor with a meatier, crazier role in a bigger best picture contender. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – I’M NOT THERE
FOR HER: Many pre-Oscar awards, lots of buzz. She’s considered one of the greatest actresses around, and she reached new heights playing a version of Bob Dylan. Won the Golden Globe. AGAINST HER: She just won in this category three years ago. Some see it as mere imitation, or didn’t see this strange movie at all. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Ruby Dee – AMERICAN GANGSTER
FOR HER: The sentimental choice. This is the first nomination for the veteran actress and civil rights activist. She steals every scene. Won the SAG. AGAINST HER: She’s only in two or three scenes – five minutes of screen time. She’s played this role for decades. (See: Jungle Fever, Do the Right Thing) The film didn’t get nominated much. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Saoirse Ronan - ATONEMENT
FOR HER: A breakthrough performance for a young actress is often awarded in this category. She shows maturity beyond her years. AGAINST HER: She’s young and everyone knows she’s got the lead in the Lovely Bones next year. She’ll have plenty of opportunities. (I hope!) CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Amy Ryan – GONE BABY GONE
FOR HER: A veteran of the stage and the amazing television show The Wire makes the transition to big screen stardom with a splash. She won almost all the early awards including the Critics Choice. AGAINST HER: The buzz seems to have faded a bit. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Tilda Swinton – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HER: Surprisingly, the first nomination for the strange and captivating British actress. She surprised everyone by winning the BAFTA. Everyone will have actually seen this film, since it’s a picture contender. AGAINST HER: The BAFTAs probably came too late. She’s kind of strange. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%