The Big Top

I’ve gotten distracted from writing my blog on the picture, director, and writing categories. I found out I got accepted to USC’s MA program in Critical Studies in Film, so I’ve been celebrating. But here we are. There are less that 48 hours to go. So, it’s time to get cracking. I will definitely have my final predictions up tomorrow and hopefully have time for one or two other last minute posts.


BEST PICTURE

ATONEMENT
FOR IT: The classic Oscar film – it’s a period, war, love story lushly photographed and dramatically executed. It won the BAFTA, the progosticater with the highest crossover in membership with the Academy. AGAINST IT: Not a whole lot of enthusiasm. Early buzz turned into indifference. Some people were turned off by the Britishness of the love story. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

JUNO
FOR IT: The crowd pleaser and favorite of the commercially oriented Academy members. AGAINST IT: It’s small and insignificant compared to its stellar competition. It’s been nominated a lot, but it hasn’t won much (other than screenplay – the standard consolation prize for such films). CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR IT: The Hollywood film of the bunch. The traditional Academy member who disliked the violence of No Country and Blood, thought Atonement was overwrought, and Juno slight will vote for it. AGAINST IT: There won’t be enough of those people. It’s just not “grand” enough to be a best picture winner. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR IT: Almost every critics prize and most of the guilds, but most importantly, the Director’s Guild, the Producer’s Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild. It’s so rare for these groups to agree with each other; the support is ridiculously universal. AGAINST IT: Overhype. People may feel it has been rewarded enough. Split votes with Blood. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%

THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR IT: Film buffs widely agree it is a masterpiece – the most original, memorable film in the bunch. It has the grandeur and scope of Citizen Kane, Giant, or 2001… AGAINST IT: None of which won the best picture prize. The Academy isn’t made of critics and film buffs, they are filmmakers. Enjoyment and emotional connection is too important for them to pick such an academic piece. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%


BEST DIRECTOR


Paul Thomas Anderson – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR HIM: This is a director’s accomplishment – a singular vision of an auteur. He’s evolved by leaps and bounds, and the Academy will want to reward that. AGAINST IT: The Academy likes to spread it around. They’ll give this Cinematography and Actor and leave it at that. Many still see him as a cocky young thing who needs to pay more dues. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Joel and Ethan Coen – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR THEM: The DGA is the single best prognosticator. They should have won for Fargo. They have a long, awesome career that the Academy is ready to reward. AGAINST THEM: Teams don’t usually get nominated, let alone win. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Tony Gilroy – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: He made an intelligent, old school yet original legal thriller. Made the leap from writer of big time Hollywood thrillers (The Bourne films) to legitimate director. AGAINST HIM: And the nomination is his reward for that. Not nearly enough of an “auspicious debut” to warrant winning. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Jason Reitman – JUNO
FOR HIM: He’s Hollywood spawn (son of Ivan Reitman) making intelligent, 1970s-style comedies like no one else around. AGAINST HIM: You don’t win for comedy unless you are hugely established, a la Billy Wilder or Woody Allen. Again, nomination = honor. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Julian Schnabel – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
FOR HIM: A real, legitimate artist (as in painter). This film is perfect. Those who didn’t see it in time to vote it in into the picture category may want to make up for it here. AGAINST IT: Enough people probably still didn’t see it. The lone director has a long battle to a win. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Diablo Cody – JUNO
FOR IT: It’s won every single pre-Oscar award possible. Diablo Cody has become a celebrity as much for her backstory as for her well crafted script. The dialog heavy film brings lots of attention to the screenplay. AGAINST IT: Overhype. The script won so many awards mostly out of default – it was an adaptation kind of year. The over attention has lead to a pretty vocal backlash. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%

Nancy Oliver – LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
FOR IT: Oliver managed to make a sweet, subtle film about a man and his blow up doll. AGAINST IT: Few will have seen it, and some who did will have hated it. This is a filler nomination in a weak year. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Tony Gilroy – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR IT: It’s a best picture nominee from a writer-director. Juno-haters will gravitate to this mature, intelligent piece. Awesome dialog in the various confrontation scenes. AGAINST IT: Only the Juno momentum. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Brad Bird – RATATOUILLE
FOR IT: The rare animation screenplay with a single author. Writer-director Bird was also nominated for The Incredibles. Surprisingly thoughtful and mature. AGAINST IT: A few of the narrative seams show from the rush job. People aren’t ready to give it to a cartoon yet. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Tamara Jenkins – THE SAVAGES
FOR IT: Probably the most personal, and personally relatable story nominated. I think it’s also probably the best screenplay in the bunch. So will most people who see it.. AGAINST IT: Which will be very few people. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Christopher Hampton – ATONEMENT
FOR IT: Hampton has been widely praised for adapting what many thought was unadaptable. He maintained the complex structure and ideas without making it a jumble. He won previously for his adaptation of Dangerous Liaisons. AGAINST IT: People still say it’s not as good as the book, a hard hurdle to pass. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Sarah Polley - AWAY FROM HER
FOR IT: Critics were shocked at the maturity and expertise the 20-something actress showed in writing and directing her first film. AGAINST IT: It’s not a major contender. The nomination is the reward. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Ronald Harwood – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
FOR IT: He took an abstract autobiographical novel about living with locked-in syndrom and made a coherent, moving, thoughtful story. He won previously for The Pianist. A last minute surge for the film could bring him along. AGAINST IT: Foreign-language scripts, especially one made mostly of letter sounds and voiceover, have a hard time getting through to voters. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Joel and Ethan Coen – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR IT: The Coens are known for their sparkling dialog, amazing set pieces, and complex structure – all on display here (much like their previously winning Fargo). It won all the awards including the WGA. AGAINST IT: Some silent passages and hate for the ending. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Paul Thomas Anderson – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR IT: The writing award is often the consolation prize for voters’ second choice film. The epic structure, and just the right kind of crazy ending show both the audacity and expertise of his writing. AGAINST IT: The lack of dialog in the first act and through many parts of the film will work against it. Unfortunately, even those who should know better equate dialog to screenplay. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%