BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
What Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Why: It’s a strong year, but there are just too many signs that point in this direction. The trifecta of the DGA, PGA, and SAG haven’t lined up like this since The Return of the King. The only people voting against it are trying to be that ‘one guy who predicted the upset’. I don’t have the guts to try and be that.
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman – Juno
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Who Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Why: Not only did they win the DGA, you can come to this conclusion by process of elimination. Gilroy and Reitman are honored by the nomination. Anderson and Schnabel are great, but they are newer to the business. They don’t have resumes to match the Coens yet. So, I think it’s theirs; and very well earned.
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortenson – Eastern Promises
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Why: No one else even comes close. I think he’s an even bigger shoe-in then Helen Mirren last year.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno
Who Will Win: Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Why: This is a hard category. The only think we can be sure of is that Blanchett will not win in this category. Linney and Page will probably be left out for “light” work – and they’ll have chances in the future. That leaves Christie and Cotillard. I think the Academy likes to see lead actresses suffer and no one suffered like Cotillard.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Who Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Why: Affleck and Hoffman are definitely also-rans. Wilkinson’s part is showy but small. Holbrook is the sentimental choice, but I think people have been charmed by Bardem.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Who Will Win: Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Why: This is so hard, but I’m going for the Binoche play. In a category where all five nominees are going to get a lot of votes you have to lean toward the nominees from the best pictures (the ones people will have seen). Between Ronan and Swinton, I think voters will go for Swinton – a worthy actress.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
Who Will Win: Juno
Why: I was going to be brave and go for Michael Clayton, since I think there is a lot of love for the film. But the screenplay for Juno stands out so much that I think it will muscle through.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Why: This is actually a difficult category. I think Away from Her is out and Diving Bell, Blood, and Atonement are all more visual films than "writerly". So, that leaves us with another one for No Country.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Why: Again, this is a very strong category. The subtle work of Diving Bell and No Country isn’t the sort of thing the Academy usually goes for. Not enough people will see Assassination. The veteran Elswit will beat out the newbie on Atonement like he did at the ASC.
BEST EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Why: This award almost always goes to a picture nominee, and usually the winner. Against Blood, the quicker, more tense No Country will win. So, another imaginary person will win an Oscar. Though watch out for a possible Bourne spoiler - it one the ACE award.
BEST ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: Sweeney Todd
Why: I think it’s between Todd and Atonement. The more artificial, stylized sets for Todd will probable trump the Dunkirk setpiece.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd
Who Will Win: La Vie En Rose
Why: I had a hard time with this one. I know Across the Universe won’t win. Atonement has that awesome green dress, but not much else. Elizabeth and Todd have the most elaborate costumes, but the movies weren’t loved by the Academy, and there was nothing much new. I think people’s love affair with Cotillard will find its way into this category.
BEST MAKEUP
La Vie En Rose
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Norbit
Who Will Win: La Vie End Rose
Why: No one liked the other two movies. Good makeup at the service of a great performance has an advantage – see Ed Wood.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers
Who Will Win: Transformers
Why: Because they’re more than meets the eye. Hehe. The Golden Compass had some sloppy work and Pirates was mostly repeat of the Part II stuff that already won.
BEST SOUND MIXING
3:10 to Yuma
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Transformers
Who Will Win: Transformers
Why: The loudest usually wins here. So Kevin O’Connell may finally get his Oscar!
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
Ratatouille
No Country for Old Men
Transformers
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: Transformers
Why: The loudest again, though this category is a little tougher. I think There Will Be Blood could be a potential spoiler.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
Who Will Win: Atonement
Why: It’s by far the most memorable score of the year (excluding There Will Be Blood).
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Falling Slowly” – Once
“Happy Working Song” – Enchanted
“Raise Up” – August Rush
“So Close” – Enchanted
“That’s How You Know” – Enchanted
Who Will Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once
Why: In earlier years I would go for “That’s How You Know”, but the last few years have seen the younger voters overpowering the love of traditional musical and end-of-the-credit ballad numbers.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up
Who Will Win: Ratatouille
Why: Persepolis will get a lot of votes – from those who actually see it. But the genius and success of Brad Bird’s film will triumph.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
Who Will Win: No End in Sight
Why: The popular choice is often the right choice. Throughout the year, No End in Sight has been the most consistently praised of the bunch.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Katyn
Mongol
12
Who Will Win: The Counterfeiters
Why: When in doubt, go Holocaust. When you haven’t seen any of the films, and none have been released, go with the consensus.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
Meme les Pigeons Vont au Paradis
My Love
Peter and the Wolf
Who Will Win: Madame Tutli Putli
Why: My usually technique with the animated shorts is to go with the silliest name. It’s a surprisingly affective one.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
At Night
Il Supplente
Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman
Who Will Win: Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Why: An interesting title. Also, on a list of predictions from various sources, it had the highest number.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Freeheld
La Corono
Salim Baba
Sari’s Mother
Who Will Win: Freeheld
Why: The majority of prognosticators are going for it, and I’ll follow.
That’s it. I feel pretty good on most of them. We shall see tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment