THOSE OTHER CATEGORIES

These categories are sometimes hard to assess. Not as many people have seen the foreign and documentary films, and it’s sometimes hard to assess the chances of a song or score. But here is my attempt to do just that. I’ll put up the actors tomorrow and writing/directing/picture up on Wednesday. If I get a chance to see the shorts, I’ll write about them later this week.

BEST FOREIGN LANUAGE FILM

Beaufort
FOR IT: Israel’s gotten seven nominations over the years, but never won. Variety calls it “sparse but powerful”. AGAINST IT: The big movie from Israel this year was The Band’s Visit, which was declared ineligible because it had too much English. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

The Counterfeiters
FOR IT: Only the second nominee from Austria. EW predicts a win for this story of concentration camp prisoners forced to make counterfeit money by the Nazis. AGAINST IT: Being the frontrunner doesn’t mean much in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Katyn
FOR IT: Polish Director Andrzei Wajda is a legend who already has an honorary Oscar for lifetime achievement to his name. But he has never won for a competitive Oscar. Variety calls the story of the Russian massacre of thousands of Poles during WWII an “academic master class”. AGAINST IT: Reviews say it lacks the emotional immediacy that it should have. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Mongol
FOR IT: Kazakhstan’s first nominated film came in with the highest awareness of any. It’s an epic about the younger years of Genghis Khan. Variety calls it a “beautifully mounted actioner”. AGAINST IT: Early recognition does mean much when you have to see all five films to be allowed to vote. Action films don’t usually thrive in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

12
FOR IT: The fifth (or 14th if you count the USSR) nomination for Russia. The story is basically twelve angry men judging a Chechen while really revealing all of the current problems of Russia. Variety calls it “expansive, dramatic, magnificent”. AGAINST IT: A low-profile entry. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No End in Sight
FOR IT: The most critically acclaimed documentary of the year – and not a slouch at the box office. It is largely considered to be one of the most thoughtful, non-partisan, well researched films on the war in Iraq so far. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 30%

Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
FOR IT: Like Letters from Home but for Iraq instead of Vietnam. The war told from the soldier’s point of view. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. The higher profile No End in Sight. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Sicko
FOR IT: Previous winner Michael Moore gets a little more personal, taking on the American health care system. The highest grossing film in the bunch. Has more to do with the current battle for the presidency than the war films. AGAINST IT: Moore fatigue. The sense that this is a minor film for him. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%

Taxi to the Dark Side
FOR IT: From the previous nominees from Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, a look at the treatment of political prisoners by Americans in Afghanistan. The WGA Award. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. This stuff doesn’t make you happy to be an American. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

War/Dance
FOR IT: Children at a refugee camp in northern Uganda prepare to enter a music competition. Delves into the lives of sadly affected children in places we often forget about. AGAINST IT: The sad truth is, we ignore these situations and focus more on our own concerns. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Persepolis
FOR IT: The most serious of the contenders. The beautifully hand animated story of a young woman’s life in revolutionary Iran. Simply stunning. AGAINST IT: Some people still won’t take an animated drama seriously. It’s a small film and in French. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Ratatouille
FOR IT: The most mature and beautiful Pixar film yet. Brad Bird is an animation auteur. Film people can relate to the plot about leaving your family to pursue your artistic dreams. Simply breathtaking. AGAINST IT: A couple awkward moments in the script (which went through several phases). CHANCES OF WINNING: 55%

Surf’s Up
FOR IT: Um, well, the member’s kids probably liked it. AGAINST IT: It’s a piece of puff, with mediocre reviews and box office up against two major artistic achievements. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dario Marianelli – ATONEMENT
FOR IT: The most talked about score of the year, besides Johnny Greenwood’s ineligible There Will Be Blood work. The interweaving of the score and the sound in the film was awesome. AGAINST IT: The score does bring a lot of attention to itself, a quality some people detest. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%

Alberto Iglesias – THE KITE RUNNER
FOR IT: The only nomination for a film that was thought it be a picture contender early on. Iglesias was nominated for his Constant Gardener score before. AGAINST IT: It’s the film's only nomination – meaning, no one saw it. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

James Newton Howard – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR IT: This is Howard’s seventh nomination without a win. Subtle work in a best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Subtle doesn’t win Oscars. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Michael Giacchino – RATATOUILLE
FOR IT: This French-tinged score was heavenly. Giacchino should have been nominated for his iconic work on The Incredibles. AGAINST IT: More sweet than soaring. Not a best picture contender. Composers rarely win on their first nomination. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Marco Beltrami – 3:10 TO YUMA
FOR IT: The first nomination for the genre picture “IT” boy. His score was memorable – lots of reference to the classic western scores. AGAINST IT: It’s just not high profile enough. He’s new to this club. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%


BEST SONG

“Falling Slowly” – ONCE
FOR IT: The only nomination from a critically acclaimed film that people took seriously. The song is an important part of the story in the film. AGAINST IT: Subtle, folky, indie rock don’t usually appeal to the older Academy members. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

“Happy Working Song” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: With 18(!) nominations and 8(!) wins, Alan Menken is Academy royalty. His spoofs of classic Disney song types were universally praised. AGAINST IT: But it’s got competition from two other songs from the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

“Raise It Up” – August Rush
FOR IT: It doesn’t have the genre hurdles of “Falling Slowly” or the split voting of the Enchanted songs. So, it could just win by default. It’s a big, uplifting type song. AGAINST IT: It’s kinda cheesy. The movie wasn't very good. First time nominees. CHANCES OF WINNING 20%

“So Close” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: This is the serious love song from Enchanted. So maybe people will take it more seriously. AGAINST IT: Or not. It doesn’t have the cleverness of the other nominees. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

“That’s How You Know” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: The most well-known of the songs from Enchanted, since it was in the ads. Therefore, the most likely from the film to win. AGAINST IT: Split vote. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%