THE BIG(GER) TOP

I’ll get the ball rolling with a look at this year’s most interesting category – Best Picture. I was asked a lot throughout this year for my opinion on the expanding of the category to ten nominees. I withheld any judgment until I saw the first round of nominees. Overall, I think the experiment works. A lot of interesting films, both commercial and small, are getting the much needed attention and marketing boost that comes along with the Best Picture nod. And while I seriously doubt they had to worry about Avatar getting a nod, I think the wide net of nominees may have the wanted effect on the ratings. (Perhaps I will write another rant/blog about the press’s and Academy’s ridiculous obsession with getting their ratings back to pre-internet/cable levels.)

To anyone who may think that this increased pool of nominees will somehow lead to a less popular winner, you have to know about the Academy’s preferential voting system, that makes sure every vote counts. Essentially, voters are asked to rank the films. They get sorted by the first choice, then small piles get reshuffled into the second choice, so there is a consensus over the winner. So, the winner this year will likely get no fewer votes than in past years. Besides, we all know that five of these films have virtually no chance at winning. So, without further ado, here are my thoughts on their chances…

AVATAR

FOR IT: The winner of the Golden Globe is also now the highest grossing film of all time (with an *). The Academy’s technical and producing branches are mostly filled with people who think this is the pinnacle of filmic achievement. AGAINST IT: Virtually, no support from the acting branch, who see this as the death of filmic achievement.. for them. The surprising loss from the PGA and DGA and lack of even a nomination from SAG do not bode well. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

THE BLIND SIDE

FOR IT: A feel good hit, that appealed to the often ignored segment of the country. AGAINST IT: Not a chance in hell. The Academy voters are not from that part of the country, and they could not even tell you who directed this. CHANCES OF WINNING: 1%

DISTRICT 9

FOR IT: A surprise hit that has been praised both for its special effects and its intelligent writing. AGAINST IT: It’s a science fiction film with no director nomination. The honor is in the nomination. CHANCES OF WINNING: 2%

AN EDUCATION

FOR IT: An actors' movie with a breakout performance, and a prestige British pedigree of actors, director and writer. AGAINST: All of which means any votes it will get will be in writing and acting. Far too small to show in this race. CHANCES OF WINNING: 2%

THE HURT LOCKER

FOR IT: The momentum created by winning the PGA and DGA awards out from under the Goliath that is Avatar. It also has the acting support (as well as technical) that Avatar does not have. A timely drama that is also a kick-ass action flick. AGAINST IT: It doesn’t have the emotional core that has been the catnip of the Academy in recent years. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

FOR IT: The win at the SAG awards means that the film has the support of the largest voting body in the Academy. The late buzz has definitely been in the film’s favor. AGAINST IT: It too may be seen as lacking that emotional core that the Academy loves. It may be too fantastical for their tastes. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

PRECIOUS

FOR IT: This one is rife with the emotion and acting the big branch loves. AGAINST IT: It’s just too small to get across-the-board support. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

A SERIOUS MAN

FOR IT: The Coen Brothers. AGAINST IT: Only one other nomination. And who saw it? CHANCES OF WINNING: 1%

UP IN THE AIR

FOR IT: It’s got the acting and the timeliness factors checked off. The general prestige of the involved parties and the high level nominations show there is a lot of support for the film. AGAINST IT: It hasn’t won much beyond screenplay awards (which I think is the weakest part of the film!) CHANCES OF WINNING: 12%

UP

FOR IT: Probably the best reviewed film in the bunch, and the only one that made everyone who saw it weep. AGAINST IT: It’s animated, and not the best Pixar has done. Maybe next time. CHANCES OF WINNING: 2%

Your Homework Before Oscar Night 2010

It's been a long time, but I couldn't let an Oscar year go by without putting in my two-cents. So, to start off this year essentially where I left off last year, here are all the nominated films, in order of importance. Try and see as many as you can before the big show in three weeks. I'll get as many posts in between now and then as I can possibly manage. Happy hunting!

1. The Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. Inglourious Basterds
4. Precious
5. Up in the Air
6. Up
7. Crazy Heart
8. An Education
9. The Blind Side
10. District 9
11. A Serious Man
12. The Last Station
13. The Messenger
14. Invictus
15. Nine
16. A Single Man
17. The Princess and the Frog
18. The White Ribbon
19. Star Trek
20. Fantastic Mr. Fox
21. Julie & Julia
22. The Lovely Bones
23. The Young Victoria
24. A Prophet
25. Ajami
26. The Milk of Sorrow
27. The Secret in Their Eyes
28. The Young Victoria
29. Coraline
30. The Secret of Kells
31. The Cove
32. Food, Inc.
33. The Most Dangerous Man in America
34. Burma VJ
35. Which Way Home
36. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
37. Sherlock Holmes
38. Bright Star
39. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
40. Il Divo
41. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
42. The Animated Shorts
43. The Live-Action Shorts
44. The Documentary Shorts

Your Homework Before Oscar Night

There are only four weeks until Oscar night and there are 38 films nominated. So it's time to get crackin. Here's a list of all the movies you should see before Oscar night in order of importance. This is based purely on nominations and not on likeliness of winning, giving more weight to more important categories. Race you to the finish!

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Milk
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Reader
6. Doubt
7. The Dark Knight
8. Wall-E
9. The Wrestler
10. Frozen River
11. Changeling
12. Revolutionary Road
13. Rachel Getting Married
14. The Visitor
15. Waltz with Bashir
16. The Baader Meinhof Complex
17. The Class
18. Departures
19. Revanch
20. Man on Wire
21. Encounters at the End of the World
22. Trouble the Water
23. The Betrayal
24. The Garden
25. Kung Fu Panda
26. Bolt
27. Tropic Thunder
28. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
29. Happy-Go-Lucky
30. In Bruges
31. Iron Man
32. The Duchess
33. Wanted
34. Defiance
35. Australia
36. The Nominated Animated Shorts
37. The Nominated Live-Action Shorts
38. The Nominated Documentary Shorts

I've seen 15 so far, but I would like to get at least another 5 or 6 in. So, let's get watching!

How Do You Get the Most Votes and Still Lose? (Besides with the Electoral College

I have to point out one of the strangest things about this year's nominations. It is very likely the that performance that received the most votes in the Best Actress category was not nominated. How you ask? To understand, you first have to know about two rules the Academy has - one that makes sense and one that doesn't. The first rule is that if a performance receives votes in both the lead and supporting categories (as there is no technical differentiation between them) all of the votes go into the category that received more votes. This way, there is a true representation of the amount of votes the performance got. This prevents a split vote that would leave a highly praised performance with no nomination. This makes sense, doesn't it?

The second rule is that one actor cannot be nominated in the same category twice. This is a stupid rule and it exists in no other category (directors and sound designers can compete against themselves.) This is why you will often see an actor who had two good performances in a year campaigning for one of them in the supporting category. This makes no sense, as an actor's work in one movie is totally separate from their work in another. It's ridiculous that they can be nominated for both if one is called a 'supporting performance' even though there is no definition of supporting versus lead.

So, in the case of this year, Kate Winslet had two stellar performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. While Revolutionary Road is obviously a lead, they have been campaigning her in the supporting category for The Reader so she could get recognized for both. But apparently a lot of people didn't buy it and voted for her in the lead category instead. Since she obviously received more votes in the lead category than in the supporting, they moved all of her votes into the lead category. Even if she received far more lead actress votes for Revolutionary Road, the combined total of her Reader votes would have been higher, thus making her ineligible to be nominated for Revolutionary Road. Totally ridiculous. So, that is how a performance can get the most votes in its category and still not be nominated.

The Contenders

I've gone back and put the actual nominees in bold. I did pretty well this year with 82%.

So, I didn’t get any of the blogs done that I wanted. But the time approaches nonetheless, and I can’t possibly go a year without logging in my predictions for the Oscar nominations. I often enjoy this part more than predicting the winners, which can be a much more political and exact science. The predictions are a matter of balance and refinement, so I can usually manage five out of five in a couple of categories, three out of five in a few, and four out of five in most. It will be seen tomorrow if my lack of excessive study has a huge affect on my predicting ability (either positive or negative). So without further ado…


BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Wall-E
NOT MENTIONED: The Reader

MY REASONING: Written at the beginning of this process: I was going to go for the exact list from the DGA and PGA but I decided to swap The Dark Knight for Revolutionary Road at the last minute. Last year, I went for the DGA list which had The Diving Bell and Into the Wild as opposed to Atonement and Juno. My gut told me Atonement and I ignored it. I’m going to go with my hunch that the dominant actors branch will carry Road over the finish line.
Written at the end: I chickened out. After predicting that the Dark Knight would get TEN nominations even without Best Picture, I can no longer justify leaving it out. Tomorrow, I will either be high fiving myself or slapping my forehead.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant – Milk

POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sam Mendes, Stephen Daldry, Andrew Stanton

MY REASONING: This group has dominated the award season and they will continue to do so at the Oscars.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins

MY REASONING: I had a hard time deciding which of the two pretty boys, DiCaprio or Pitt would make the cut. Pitt had racked up more points, but I think there was more talk about DiCaprio’s actual performance as opposed to Pitt’s special effects. Rather than go for both, I thought I would let Eastwood sneak in as you can never lose money betting on him with the Academy.


BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Anjelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslett – Revolutionary Road
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Melissa Leo, Cate Blanchett, Kristin Scott Thomas

MY REASONING: Throughout the season, there have been eight strong performances rotating honors in this category. The precursors all varied, giving no help at all. So I picked these five, somewhat randomly, just based on hunches. So I know at least one of the ladies I put in the spoilers will probably be on the list, if not all three.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Michael Sheen, Michael Shannon, James Franco

MY REASONING: I feel pretty settled on this five. I have a feeling if someone else shows up on this list, it will be totally out of left field.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslett – The Reader
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Amy Adams, Freida Pinto, Rosemary DeWitt

MY REASONING: My only hesitation on this list was deciding which of the ladies from Doubt would make the it. I decided to favor Davis, despite being less well known than Amy Adams. I think she’s got that underdog element that will compel more people to vote for you.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Burn After Reading, Wall-E, In Bruges
NOT MENTIONED: Frozen River

MY REASONING: This is an adaptation heavy year, but there are still a lot of big contenders here. The precursors are wide spread and therefore unhelpful. So hopefully I guessed well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, The Dark Knight

MY REASONING: I went with Doubt over Road, since the biggest complaint about Road is the over-the-top dialog. No one has been raving about Shanley’s direction of Doubt, but his adaptation of his own play has that prestige factor.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revanch, Departures, Tear Out This Heart, 3 Monkeys

MY REASONING: Having only seen one of these movies (the amazing Waltz), I first go by other nomination and awards, then country. Since there are only nine to choose from, I guess I’m guaranteed at least one.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man On Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Betrayal, Made in America, They Killed Sister Dorothy
NOT MENTIONED: The Garden

MY REASONING: Once again, I have limited knowledge beyond the 15 films on the short list. Again – awards, reviews, buzz, and then just interesting titles.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Bolt, Madagascar: Escape to Africa

MY REASONING: I think the Academy is insane if this isn’t the list. This would be the strongest animation list ever.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Milk, Changeling, Australia

BEST EDITING (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Iron Man, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler

BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Australia, Milk, Revolutionary Road
NOT MENTIONED: The Duchess

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Australia
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Dark Knight, Milk, Sex and the City

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Wrestler, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Hellboy II

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3 for 3 !!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Hellboy II: The Golden Army

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Quantum of Solace, The Wrestler, Australia
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Slumdog Millionaire, The Incredible Hulk, Cloverfield
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SCORE
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Defiance

BEST SONG
“Down to Earth” – Wall-E
“Jaiho” – Slumdog Millionaire
“Gran Torino” – Gran Torino
“Once in a Lifetime” – Cadillac Records
“The Wrestler” – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: “I Thought I Lost You”, “Another Way to Die”. "O Saya”

Awards Count:
Benjamin Button – 13 (15)
Slumdog Millionaire - 10 (13)
The Dark Knight – 11 (12)
Milk – 6 (11)
Revolutionary Road – 4 (10)
Frost/Nixon – 5 (7)
Wall-E – 4 (7)
Changeling – 4 (5)
Doubt – 4 (5)
The Wrestler – 3 (6)
The Reader – 3 (5)

The King and Queen of the Prom

I’ll keep it moving with the actor lists.

BEST ACTOR

1. Sean Penn – MILK – An amazing performance that couldn’t be more different from his Oscar-winning turn in Mystic River. Loads of critics and nominations can’t be wrong!

2. Mickey Rourke – THE WRESTLER – A truly mesmerizing, hearth-breaking performance. Unlike The Ram, Rourke has learned to behave himself in descent society and campaign for his awards with that whole redemption narrative.

3. Frank Langella – FROST/NIXON – Langella goes beyond imitation in reviving his stage performance as Nixon. The Academy loves that, since they all still think theatre is more respectable than film.

4. Richard Jenkins – THE VISITOR – A usually invisible character actor turns in a beautiful lead performance. Hopefully, he doesn’t get overshadowed by the other character actor turned lead (see Langella above).

5. Brad Pitt – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The title character in a many-times-nominated film usually gets in there. But a lot of people find his performance to be too passive.

6. Leonardo DiCaprio – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – They say it’s his best work. But he could be overshadowed by bigger films and by his co-star. (Like he was last time he worked with Winslett.)

7. Clint Eastwood – GRAN TORINO – The Academy loves Eastwood to an unhealthy degree. Perhaps the lack of a Golden Globe or SAG nomination is the first sign that the love affair is over.

8. Benicio Del Toro – CHE – A totally left field choice.

9. Josh Brolin – W – If the Academy is feeling particularly political.

10. Ralph Fiennes – THE READER – I’m just filling up slots at this point.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
That’s pretty much it. It’s a thin year.


BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep – DOUBT – The fact that Meryl Streep will be nominated any year she puts a little effort in is inevitable.

2. Kate Winslett – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – Powerhouse stuff from the actress who might just break the record for most nominations without a win.

3. Anne Hathaway – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED – A whole lot of critics’ prizes and a bunch of sympathetic press coverage work well for her.

4. Anjelina Jolie – THE CHANGELING – Who doesn’t want Jolie to show up to their party?!

5. Melissa Leo – FROZEN RIVER – The female equivalent of Richard Jenkins.

6. Cate Blanchett – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – Beautiful work making a sometimes unlikable character thoroughly relatable.

7. Sally Hawkins – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY – The little known British actress has gotten raves, critics awards, and a Globe nomination for her work in Mike Leigh’s latest.

8. Kristin Scott Thomas – I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG – Thomas is likely to get nominated if enough people actually see her in this film about a woman just released from prison. Did I mention she acts in perfect French!

9. Kate Beckinsale – NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH – She gets in here solely on a Critics Choice nomination.

10. Michelle Williams – WENDY AND LUCY – This little film is starting to pick up some steam, not to mention the sympathy votes.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Rebecca Hall – VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Emma Thompson – LAST CHANCE HARVEY

Again, it’s a pretty thin year. Not to mention the fact that a lot of the spectulative fat has been trimmed by this time. For instance, I won’t bother putting down Nicole Kidman for Australia.

Here’s my lists from September of last year:

ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (yup!)
2. Johnny Depp (yup!)
3. Tom Hanks
4. James McAvoy
5. Denzel Washington
6. Tom Cruise
7. Tommy Lee Jones (yup!)
8. Josh Brolin
9. Viggo Mortenson (yup!)
10. Casey Affleck
OTHER CONTENDERS: George Clooney (yup!!)

So, 4 ½ ain’t bad!

ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Right!)
2. Julie Christie (Right!)
3. Jodie Foster
4. Helena Bonham Carter
5. Keira Knightley
6. Anjelina Jolie
7. Halle Berry
8. Julia Roberts
9. Laura Linney (Right!)
10. Marion Cotillard (Right)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Ellen Page (Right!)

Another 4 ½. So, I rightly predicted all five nominees six months in advance. But stupid Juno and stupid Michael Clayton once again lower my batting average.

Getting a Late Start

This year has just walked right by me in a haze of work, school, and presidential elections. Now that I have a little time to relax and look around, I thought I would venture back into the Oscar blogosphere. Obviously, this will not be comprehensive, as I usually start in September, but I couldn’t go the whole season without putting my two cents in. So, I’ll start with my annual lists of the top contenders in each category before posting my final predictions for the nominees.

It’s shaping up to be a great year. The pool of films in consideration seems to be a bit small this year, but the quality to great. Without further ado, here are the top contenders for Best Picture and Director.

BEST PICTURE

1. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE – Virtually every critics’ prize, along with nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG guarantee a spot for Danny Boyle’s Indian Dickens story.

2. THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The classic best picture contender of the bunch. It should receive the move nominations of any film easily.

3. FROST/NIXON – The actors’ movie. It’s this year’s The Queen or Michael Clayton. It makes it through on loads of actors’ support.

4. MILK – The “important” film of the year. Everyone likes it, though it could be hurt by a lack of enthusiastic passion for it.

5. WALL-E – An inordinate amount of love from critics (Los Angeles and Chicago) could move Wall-E from the Animation category.

6. DOUBT – If there is room for two acting-heavy adaptations of Pulitzer-Prize winning plays, then this could slip in too.

7. THE DARK KNIGHT – Hollywood cannot ignore the will of the people and their $500 million.

8. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – This is the kind of polished, old-school drama that the academy used to drool over.

9. THE READER – Never underestimate Nazis.

10. THE WRESTLER – Love for Mickey Rourke’s acting could push this little film farther.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Happy-Go-Lucky, Gran Torino, Defiance


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Danny Boyle – SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2. David Fincher – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
3. Gus Van Sant – MILK
4. Ron Howard – FROST/NIXON
5. Christopher Nolan – THE DARK KNIGHT
6. Sam Mendes – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
7. Stephen Daldry – THE READER
8. Andrew Stanton – WALL-E
9. Mike Leigh – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
10. Darren Aronofsky – THE WRESTLER

OTHER CONTENDERS:
John Patrick Shanley – DOUBT, Jonathon Demme – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Clint Eastwood – THE CHANGELING/GRAN TORINO

Here’s a look back on how I did with my early list (late September!) last year.

PICTURE:
1. Atonement (yes!)
2. No Country for Old Men (yes!)
3. Charlie Wilson’s War
4. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. American Gangster
6. The Kite Runner
7. Into the Wild
8. There Will be Blood (yes!)
9. In the Valley of Elah
10. Sweeney Todd

And I totally missed Juno and Michael Clayton. D’oh!

DIRECTOR:
1. Joel and Ethan Coen (yup!)
2. Joe Wright
3. Ridley Scott
4. Mike Nichols
5. David Cronenberg
6. Paul Thomas Anderson (yup!)
7. Francis Ford Coppola
8. Tim Burton
9. Sean Penn
10. Marc Forster
Other Contenders: Julian Schnabel (yup!)

Once again, I totally missed the whole Michael Clayton and Juno thing. That kind of messed up my numbers. But it was early in the year, this year should be better, given how late in the season it is.