The State of the State of the Race

I know it's been a long time. I was excessively busy with school and work for a while, then I had a hard time coming up with what to write. I've been planning on putting up an early look at the "other" film categories (Foreign, Documentary, etc), and I still plan to. In the mean time, I wanted to throw my two-cents in on the race so far.

Here's something I've learned increasingly this years. I'm getting very annoyed with Oscar sites. I love the information they put together for me, and the analysis of what was included by this critics association, what was left out by that one, and what that all means for the films hopes of Oscar glory. I love the collections of FYC ads and the predictions for nominations.

If the sites would stick to this type of analysis - I would be happy. But I increasingly find myself sifting through blatant love letter campaigns for a favorite film or performance, personal feelings of hate for a certain producer or film, shit-talking about other sites, defamation of the character of critics as a way of discounting their opinions, and a constant comparison of who knows more about the race and who is clueless. I'm sick of this stuff. It's taking the fun out of the game. I don't want to talk any further about this, as it will turn into exactly the kind of rhetoric I dislike and I believe sullies everything I love about awards season.

Back to the real subject of this blog! I've enjoyed the critics lists so far. I've been glad to see really interesting, and justifiable, choices on most of their parts. There is no consensus - which makes for an exciting year. I don't report on them individually, as that's just not the kind of site I'm running. I prefer to see them all come out and then look at them as a whole. I believe this is where their significance to the race lies. We find general trends (Helen Mirren sweeping every single one last year) that may carry through. We see the films that did not get the support they needed. And we can narrow (or widen!) our lists a little.

Tomorrow, the Golden Globe nominations come out. And while I think their significance to the Oscar race has been almost completely diminished, I'll do a little piece on it and the Critics Choice nominations. The fun part is just beginning!

Craftian Prophecies

The “For Your Consideration” ads are officially abound. But if you want to be a real Oscarite insider you’ll call them FYCs from now on… or not. So, it's officially on.

I’m almost finished with my super early predictions. I’ve got the tech awards here – or “Craft Awards”, as you know from my thoughts on the subject last year. This year is shaping up interestingly. I think the techs will be a little easier. There is more traditional Oscar-fodder. Last year there was a dearth of period and fantasy work leaving films like The Devil Wears Prada and The Queen to pick up Costume nominations. Even if a film like Elizabeth: The Golden Age flops with every critic (which it did) it should still get some love from the craftsy people.

This time last year I managed to correctly predict an average of 2 ½ future nominees correctly in these categories.

Without further ado…


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ATONEMENT
2. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
3. THERE WILL BE BLOOD (This 1,2,3 is beginning to look familiar)
4. SWEENEY TODD
5. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
6. LUST, CAUTION (4,5, and 6 will be critic proof in a few of these categories)
7. THE KITE RUNNER
8. AMERICAN GANGSTER
9. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
10. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
Other Contenders: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, I’m Not There, Into the Wild, Youth Without Youth, 3:10 to Yuma

BEST EDITING
1. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
2. AMERICAN GANGSTER
3. ATONEMENT
4. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
5. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
6. THE KITE RUNNER
7. MICHAEL CLAYTON
8. I’M NOT THERE
9. INTO THE WILD
10. SWEENEY TODD
Other Contenders: Lions for Lambs, Youth Without Youth, Love in the Time of Cholera, 3:10 to Yuma, In the Valley of Elah

BEST ART DIRECTION
1. SWEENEY TODD
2. ATONEMENT
3. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
4. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
5. LUST, CAUTION
6. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
7. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
8. 300
9. ACROSS THE UNIVERSE
10. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
Other Contenders: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, 3:10 to Yuma, Hairspray, Beowulf, Stardust

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
2. SWEENEY TODD
3. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
4. ATONEMENT
5. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
6. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
7. LUST, CAUTION
8. HAIRSPRAY
9. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
10. GOYA’S GHOSTS
Other Contenders: 3:10 to Yuma, Becoming Jane, Stardust, Leatherheads, 300

BEST MAKEUP
1. STARDUST
2. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
3. 300
4. SWEENEY TODD
5. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
6. HAIRSPRAY
7. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
8. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
9. EASTERN PROMISES
10. ATONEMENT
Other Contenders: There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Spider-Man 3

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. BEOWULF
2. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
3. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
4. TRANSFORMERS
5. HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
6. 300
7. SPIDER-MAN 3
8. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
9. ATONEMENT
10. STARDUST

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. SWEENEY TODD
2. TRANSFORMERS
3. ATONEMENT
4. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
5. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
6. BEOWULF
7. HAIRSPRAY
8. THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
9. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
10. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Other Contenders: American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, Into the Wild, The Kite Runner, Lust, Caution

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
1. RATATOUILLE
2. BEOWULF
3. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
4. TRANSFORMERS
5. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
6. THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
7. 300
8. THERE WILL BE BLOOD
9. ATONEMENT
10. HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
Other Contenders: Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild, 3:10 to Yuma

I’ll try to be back sooner than later with a brief look at the “Other kinds of movies” categories and music.

Eenie Meenie Minnie Oh!

Predicting the Supporting Actor categories is nearly impossible this early in the game. While there is rarely more than one leading performance in any given film, there can be dozens in the Supporting arena. So, let’s say there are 300 eligible films released in the year. 200 of those are not even to be considered (of the Deuce Bigelow, documentary, or indie that played in one theatre variety). Of the 100 left, 50 have already been released and only maybe 20 of them will be remembered. You’re now down to 70. (Only about 30 of these will even have a Lead Actress.) That’s a manageable number. Prestige factor, previous record of the lead actor, and early buzz will get you down to a solid 20 or 30.

But let’s take an example of a prestige movie coming out that hasn’t been seen – Charlie Wilson’s War. We can safely put Tom Hanks in the lead category and guess that is where they will put Julia Roberts (1 Male Lead and 1 Female Lead). That leaves Amy Adams, Emily Blunt, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Ned Beatty as the other name actors. While we know all of these actors are capable of great work, we have no idea the size or challenge of the parts they are going to play.

Last year, looking at Little Miss Sunshine from afar, it looked like Steve Carrell or Greg Kinnear might be nominees, but it was Alan Arkin who had the scene-stealing role. If you had an average of two possibilities in each category from the 70 films we are considering, that is 140 possibilities for each category. So, I’m giving myself five extra “other contender” choices.

So, my point with all this is… take these predictions with a grain of salt… or five.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Javier Bardem – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – One of the first shoe-ins of the year. Not a single review of this film doesn’t rave about his performance. It’s just a matter of category for him. But since he’s the villain (I believe) they’ll probably put him in supporting… unless they do it like Hopkins for Silence of the Lambs (the 22 minute “Lead” performance).

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Pure hearsay. They say he’s got a meaty role... in a Mike Nicholls film. Sounds good to me.

3. Casey Affleck – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD – Like I said, he’s having a break out year. It’s hard to tell at this point which film he may be recognized for. I don’t see a double nomination at this point.

4. Paul Dano – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – This is a hard one to assess at this point. From the trailers it looks like a very showy role – as a small town evangelical preacher. But it’s hard to tell if he really pulls it off, or its too difficult a role for so young an actor. If he pulls it off, he’ll be in here.

5. Hal Holbrook – INTO THE WILD – There are a lot of short supporting roles in this film, but this is the one that has gotten the most attention. And they love an older actor who does their best work in years. And he’s really old.

6. Alan Rickman – SWEENEY TOOD – Again, it’s hard to tell when the film hasn’t been seen yet. But you’ve got to figure, Alan Rickman in a period musical just sounds like a winner.

7. Ethan Hawke – BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD – The buzz for this one is growing. The critics say Hawke and Phil Hoffman do some of their best work ever.

8. Tom Wilkinson – MICHAEL CLAYTON – He’s a lawyer who goes crazy and calls himself “Shiva, the God of Death”. Awardsville stuff.

9. John Travolta – HAIRSPRAY – With very low expectations, people were very surprised at just how convincing Travolta was as a singing, dancing fat woman. (I’m not sure why… other than the creepy makeup.)

10. Philip Boscoe – THE SAVAGES – This is another one of those older actors shining after many years.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Chiwetel Ejiofer – American Gangster
Albert Finney – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men
Bruno Ganz – Youth Without Youth
Sacha Baron Cohen – Sweeney Todd
Ed Harris – Gone Baby Gone
Peter Fonda – 3:10 to Yuma
Ben Foster – 3:10 to Yuma
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jeff Daniels – The Lookout
Chris Cooper – Breach
Andy Griffith – Waitress
Mark Ruffalo – Reservation Road
Christian Bale – I’m Not There
Armin Mueller Stahl – Eastern Promises


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – I’M NOT THERE – Even voters who refuse to see this “experimental” film may vote for her. She really proves herself to be the greatest actor (gender regardless) of her generation.

2. Saoire Ronam – ATONEMENT – She’s gotten more buzz than the two actresses she shares her role with, which is impressive given they are Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai. She also scored the lead in The Lovely Bones, Peter Jackson’s next film, which means she will probably be an actress to be reckoned with.

3. Meryl Streel - LIONS FOR LAMBS – The film hasn’t been seen, but it’s Meryl Streep so you can probably count on it.

4. Vanessa Redgrave – ATONEMENT – She’s got the Gloria Stuart role... and good reviews.

5. Jennifer Connelly – RESERVATION ROAD – The fact that they are keeping her in the supporting category means they probably thinks she’ll have a good chance at it.

6. Abbie Cornish – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Even in the reviews that didn’t like the film, Cornish has been singled out as a highlight as Eliabeth’s lady-in-waiting.

7. Tilda Swinton – MICHAEL CLAYTON – A solid character actress in a solid supporting role.

8. Olympia Dukakis – AWAY FROM HER – If they really love this film (and bother to see it), she may be pulled along.

9. Michelle Pfeiffer – HAIRSPRAY – She got good reviews for both of her films this year, but this one was better liked.

10. Susan Sarandon – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – Solid reviews for a veteran Oscar-winner.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Romola Garai – Atonement
Marisa Tomei – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Kelly MacDonald – No Country for Old Men
Jennifer Jason Leigh – Margot at the Wedding
Marcia Gay Harden – Into the Wild
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Jennifer Garner – Juno
Amy Adams – Charlie Wilson’s War
Evan Rachel Wood – In Bloom
Mira Sorvino – Reservation Road
Renee Zellweger – Leatherheads
Brenda Blethyn – Atonement
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Joan Chen – Lust, Caution

Here are my picks from this time last year. I guess I should be happy with 2 ½ in each category considering how hard this is. But I can’t help shaking my head at year-ago me.

1. Jack Nicholson – The Departed
2. Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls (right!)
3. Brad Pitt – Babel
4. Ben Affleck – Hollywoodland
5. Steve Carrell – Little Miss Sunshine
6. Michael Sheen – The Queen
7. Gael Garcia Bernal – Babel
8. Tobey Maguire – The Good German
9. Brian Cox – Running With Scissors
10. Mark Wahlberg – The Departed (right!)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children (right!)
* I had even seen Little Miss Sunshine and didn’t put Arkin on here! But no one had seen Blood Diamond so I won’t kick myself about missing Djimon Hounsou.

1. Cate Blanchett – Babel (wrong film!)
2. Angelina Jolei – The Good Shepherd
3. Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls (right!)
4. Jennifer Connelly – Little Children
5. Emma Thompson – Stranger Than Fiction
6. Juliette Binoche – Breaking and Entering
7. Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada (yes, but in the wrong category)
8. Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine (right!)
9. Carmen Maura – Volver
10. Shareeka Epps – Half Nelson
OTHER CONTENDERS: Cate Blanchett – NOTES ON A SCANDAL (right!)
• As Babel hadn’t come out yet, I had no way of predicting the nominations of Adrianna Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. So there.

I have a feeling I did better this year, but who knows really.

Bringing a Little Attention to the Ignored

I think I’m going to postpone the bane-of-my-existence Supporting Acting categories to see if any new contenders pop on to the radar in the next week. So, I’ve moved right to the screenplay awards, which are obviously no less important, if a little less glamorous.

Traditionally, the big picture contenders skew towards the adapted screenplay category, but in recent years there has been a more even split. This year, it’s back to tradition (in more ways than one), with 8 out of 10 of my picture list falling in the adapted category. This will make a solid list of Originals harder to assemble.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. JUNO – There is always a guaranteed spot for a lovable, but intelligent indie film in the original category. The writer is also very interesting. Her name is Diablo Cody, and she’s a former ad executive/stripper. Bet you never thought you would see that hyphenate.

2. I’M NOT THERE – This film is probably way too out there to get a lot of support from the academy (except for Cate Blanchett). The one branch that may want to reward the risk is the writers.

3. LIONS FOR LAMBS – If it’s good, it’s a shoe-in. If it sucks, I’ll be shaking my head at this list in a few months.

4. THE SAVAGES – Repeat the above sentiments.

5. IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – There are obviously a lot of Paul Haggis fans in the Academy, as evidenced by Crash’s wins in Picture and this category. Haggis fans are also very defensive of his work against the haters, so they might just vote for him even if they didn’t like the film.

6. ONCE – The indie sleeper hit of the year. Normally that would make it a shoe-in, but it’s a musical. Musicals face an uphill battle as there is just less screenplay, and some may view the songs as the good writing with the screenplay only there to support them.

7. MARGOT AT THE WEDDING – This got love-it-or-hate-it reviews at Toronto. So, we’ll see what the general consensus is when it’s released. Baumbach’s previous work The Squid and the Whale was nominated.

8. BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD – People seem surprised at just how good Sydney Lumet’s latest is.

9. RATATOUILLE – This is the rare animated film that could slip in here. It has a few things going for it – it was very adult, it was very successful, and though there are many story credits, sole screenplay credit went to one of the only animation auteurs, Brad Bird.

10. THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE – This is an unknown quantity as of yet. I’m going for this one based on the writer. This is his first feature credit, but he has four films in development. It sounds like he’s hot.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Michael Clayton
Reservation Road
Eastern Promises
The Darjeeling Limited
Knocked Up
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Waitress
Rendition
P.S. I Love You
Superbad


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – I’m willing to write this one in permanent ink on my final nomination predictions. It’s so in.

2. ATONEMENT – Most people thought it couldn’t be done. Most reviews have commented on how well they did it. It’s a major accomplishment and it will be rewarded.

3. THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Choosing to go back a hundred years and even approach an Upton Sinclair novel was audacious. (It hasn’t been done since his death in 1968.) If it turns out as well as people at the first screening are saying, it could be legendary.

4. THE KITE RUNNER – This book was a huge best seller, so turning it into a successful (and good) movie will probably make readers excited.

5. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Of course, this is a guess since no one has seen it. But people have read the script and said it was great.

6. INTO THE WILD – Another difficult adaptation that has gotten raves. Even if this film is too small to make the picture list, it will likely show up here.

7. AWAY FROM HER – With a lot of epics up there, some voters may want to go for something personal, like Sarah Polley’s surprisingly mature adaptation of an Alice Munro story.

8. YOUTH WITHOUT YOUTH – This is Coppola’s first screenplay in ten years.

9. 3:10 TO YUMA – This script got a lot of compliments for reminding us how good an old fashioned western story could be without feeling old.

10. GONE BABY GONE – Previous winner Ben Affleck (I know it sounds weird) writes his first script in ten years (with the help of a former assistant). Based on a Dennis Lehane (Mystic River) novel.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Sweeney Tood
American Gangster
Love in the Time of Cholera
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Lust, Caution
Leatherheads
The Hoax
Zodiac
The Golden Compass

* Last year was mixed. It wasn’t bad, but not super awesome like my picture, director, actor, and actress picks. Let’s take a look…

ORIGINAL
1. Little Miss Sunshine (right!)
2. The Queen (right!)
3. Volver
4. Babel (right!)
5. The Good Shepherd
6. Stranger Than Fiction
7. United 93
8. Venus
9. Breaking and Entering
10. For Your Consideration

A didn’t get Letters from Iwo Jima, which, if you remember, wasn’t eligible at the time. I totally would have picked it if I knew I could, and I did put Flags up, so I’m taking a half point! I also missed Pan’s Labyrinth. Few could see that one coming until a late season swell of support. A respectable 3 ½ .

ADAPTED
1. The Departed (right!)
2. The Good German
3. Flags of Our Father
4. Running with Scissors
5. The Last King of Scotland
6. Little Children (right!)
7. Thank You for Smoking
8. Fast Food Nation
9. The History Boys
10. Half Nelson
Other Possibilities: Children of Men (right!), Notes on a Scandal (right!)

I can’t believe I didn’t put Borat on here. I’m a doof, what can I say. “Other possibilities” only get half points, so give myself a 3 out of 5 which isn’t half bad.

The King and Queen of the Prom

One of the most difficult aspects of making early predictions in the acting categories is knowing which category the performance will be fit under – lead or supporting. A film like No Country for Old Men causes such a problem. Often we don’t know where to put a performance until they put together their Oscar campaigns and tell us all.

Sometimes it is pure politics. If an actor or actress has two potentially awardable performances in one year they will put one in the supporting category if it is at all possible. This is because you cannot get two acting nominations in the same category – I’m really not sure why. If there are two male leads (there are rarely two female leads) they may push one of them into the supporting category to give them both a better shot at a nomination. (This is an issue for American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, Jesse James.)

In a strong female acting year a leading lady who has a male co-star with a bigger part will be put in the supporting category (a la Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny). In a weak year, she will be in the lead category (a la Kate Winslett in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind). Kid actors will almost always be put in the supporting category even if they are in every frame of the film and they are the title character.

My point is, please make allowances if I put an actor in the wrong category. I’m not going to put them in both as it will take up space that could be occupied by others. I've limited myself to a list of ten with ten more posibilities. And just so no one freaks out, Javier Barden will be on my supporting list, because I hear they are going to campaign Josh Brolin in lead.

BEST ACTOR

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – He’s probably the most amazing actor out there, and he should have won for Gangs of New York. Even if the film is no good (god forbid!) his performance looks fantastic.

2. Johnny Depp – SWEENEY TODD – Depp is at that stage of his career where he will get nominated for any decent performance until he wins (like Pacino in the late-80s). If he proves he can sing, he will get nominated.

3. Tom Hanks – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Hanks is at the stage in his career where he gets an honorary nomination every few years just to rack up a tally (see: Meryl Streep).

4. James McAvoy – ATONEMENT – He’s been coming on for a couple of years, but rumor has to his emotional range here blows away anything he’s done before. He’s Kate Winsett in this historical epic, not the more established Leo (that would be Miss Knightley).

5. Denzel Washington – AMERICAN GANGSTER – It’s a big meaty role with lots of dimension. The only thing that could hurt him is if it is too similar to his work in Training Day.

6. Tom Cruise – LIONS FOR LAMBS – At this point, people think he’s so crazy that they forget he’s an actor. They definitely underestimate how good he can be. The surprise if this is good could give him the buzz for another nod.

7. Tommy Lee Jones – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – He’s Tommy Lee Jones, and he’s supposed to be good in this. And his costars in No Country will probably get all the attention.

8. Josh Brolin – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – He’s getting good buzz. His nomination would entirely depend on Javier Bardem being in the supporting category.

9. Viggo Mortensen – EASTERN PROMISES – Good reviews, and a stretch of a performance. It could be a winner.

10. Casey Affleck – GONE BABY GONE – Filling in this last spot was hard. I was tempted to go with one of the western stars, but I couldn’t single out one (a dilemna the Academy members may find themselves in). Affleck is having a great year. With two big performances, he’ll likely get some end-of-the-year notice.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Brad Pitt – The Assassination of Jesse James….
Russell Crowe – American Gangster or 3:10 to Yuma
Tim Roth – Youth Without Youth
Javier Bardem – Live in the Time of Cholera
Gordon Pincett – Away from Her
Christian Bale – 3:10 to Yuma or Rescue Dawn
Benicio DelToro – Things We Lost in the Fire
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Savages or Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
John Cusack – Grace is Gone


BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Even people who have hated the movie have said she’s fantastic. Many think she was robbed for the first one.

2. Julie Christie – AWAY FROM HER – The early favorite will probably hold up as many of the big female vehicles have been underwhelming.

3. Jodie Foster – THE BRAVE ONE – She’s gotten raves, but the film hasn’t. It has underperformed at the box office, but the performance will probably hold up.

4. Helena Bonham Carter – SWEENEY TODD – She’s never sung, so if she is good she is likely to be rewarded (a la Renee Zellweger for Chicago). I’ve seen some people putting her in the Supporting category. That doesn’t seem right to me as actresses who have played this part of Broadway have won awards in the lead category.

5. Keira Knightley – ATONEMENT – Word is she is very good, but nothing hugely new. Her co-stars have gotten more notice. She will likely make it in on a sweep however.. unless she’s Leo.

6. Anjelina Jolie – A MIGHTY HEART – She got overall good notices, with only a few critics commenting that it’s difficult to not see her as Anjelina Jolie. The film got buried this summer, so there would need to be a good campaign to remind voters about this one.

7. Halle Berry – THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE – I haven’t heard anything on this one yet, but it sounds like a tough role along the lines of her winning Monster’s Ball.

8. Julia Roberts – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – The marketing team will always give her big billing, so that doesn’t really tell us if this is a supporting or lead performance. From the costumes alone, it looks like a new type of role for her.

9. Laura Linney – THE SAVAGES – It looks like Linney is back in You Can Count on Me territory, which is always a good thing.

10. Marion Cotillard – LA VIE EN ROSE – People love to say they are into Edith Piaf. I think it makes them feel all the good things about being French. What better way to prove it then to vote for Cotillard’s acclaimed performance as the late singer... if enough of them saw it.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Tang Wei – LUST, CAUTION
Charlize Theron – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Nicole Kidman – MARGOT AT THE WEDDING
Naomi Watts – EASTERN PROMISES
Jennifer Connelly – RESERVATION ROAD
Reese Wiltherspoon - RENDITION
Samantha Morton – CONTROL
Ellen Page – JUNO
Keri Russell - WAITRESS

Here are my lists from last October:
1. Forest Whitaker (bam!)
2. Ryan Gosling (bam!)
3. Peter O’Toole (bam!)
4. Matt Damon
5. George Clooney
6. Brad Pitt
7. Leonardo DiCaprio (bam!)
8. Will Smith (5 for 5, baby!)
9. Patrick Wilson
10. Ryan Philippe

1. Helen Mirren (yup!)
2. Penelope Cruz (yup!)
3. Kate Winslett (yup!)
4. Annette Bening
5. Cate Blanchett
6. Renee Zellweger
7. Beyonce Knowles
8. Judi Dench (yup!)
9. Maggie Gyllenhaal
10. Keke Palmer
And #7 on my Supporting Actress list… Meryl Streep (5 for 5, baby!)

I’m done with the easy lists. Now for the most difficult to divine of all – the supporting acting categories! As my lists from last year will prove, these are the toughest to predict early.

The Early Contenders

Last year was the worst year in recent memory for predicting the Best Picture race. At the last moment I did an eenie-meenie and picked Babel, which seemed as likely as The Departed or Letters from Iwo Jima (or maybe even Little Miss Sunshine). This year, unless one of the films that hasn’t been seen turns out to be a masterpiece, I think you could already call the winner.

So, here are my lists for the top contenders in the Picture and Director categories. Some of this is absolute guesswork and conjecture. To prove that I kind of know what I’m talking about, here is my list from the last week of September last year:
1. United 93
2. Flags of Our Fathers
3. The Departed
4. The Good German
5. The Queen
6. The Good Shepherd
7. Little Miss Sunshine
8. The Last King of Scotland
9. Babel
10. Dreamgirls
Even though I only have four out of five future nominees in there, I’m gonna give myself a 5 out of 5. See, they hadn’t changed the release date for Iwo Jima yet, so it wasn’t eligible when I made the list. But because I put Flags on there I’m going to take the point – cause, well, I make the rules.

BEST PICTURE

1. ATONEMENT – This film is so far in the lead at this point, it’s not even a contest. Every other film has either been seen by no one or got mixed reviews at the festivals. I have not heard a single bad thing about this film. It is an epic love story with period costume and war – you really can’t get anymore Oscar-friendly than that.

2. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MAN – This is the only exception to “the mixed reviews at festivals” comment that I stated above. Even if it wins every single critics award, it’s just not as Oscar-friendly as Atonement. It will get nominated, it will win a few, but I don’t think it’ll get the top prize.

3. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Pedigree. Pedigree. Pedigree. A big time political satire with loads of Oscar-winners (Hanks, Roberts, Nichols, P.S. Hoffman), based on an acclaimed book. But no one has seen it. So, it could be brilliant, or it could be another All the King’s Men.


4. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Maybe I’m crazy to rank it this high given the mixed festival reviews. But I keep thinking back to the first Elizabeth, that also had mixed reviews, yet was propelled to a Best Picture nod by a stellar lead performance and lots of technical love. Until some of the unknown quantities prove themselves worthy, I’ll keep it up here.

5. AMERICAN GANGSTER – This is one of those unknown quantities relying on its pedigree (Ridley Scott, Denzel and Russell) to put it on the list. An epic true story is always a good bet for some Oscar love.

6. THE KITE RUNNER – This has the potential to be this year’s Life is Beautiful. An uplifting tale without major stars, with a big director, based on a best-selling book about Afghanistan during the Soviet war and under the Taliban. Sounds like a winner to me.

7. INTO THE WILD – This is the buzziest film of the moment. Right now, I’m unconvinced it will make the cut. I’ve heard it definitely skews toward a younger audience and that is not the Academy demographic.

8. THERE WILL BE BLOOD – It looks like Paul Thomas Anderson has really matured as a filmmaker. This one seems to lack the self-obsessed, modern, screw-up focus that prevented his earlier work from getting him a director or picture nod. However, it could still be too dark for the Academy’s taste.

9. IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – This has the love-hate thing going for it that Paul Haggis’ previous outing, Crash, had – and that won Best Picture (ugh). But that one was a box office hit, and this one isn’t doing quite so well.

10. SWEENEY TODD – A totally unknown quantity, though an audience saw a few minutes at the Venice Film Festival. It may be too dark and bloody for the Academy, but they do love a good musical.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Rendition (mixed Toronto reception)
Lions for Lambs (unseen)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Best Director at Canne)
Reservation Road (mixed at Toronto)
Youth Without Youth (unseen)
Love in the Time of Cholera (it’s strange how little buzz)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (mixed, no one will want to write that title on a ballot)
Once & Away from Her (critically acclaimed but small)
Eastern Promises (Audience Award at Toronto)

A somewhat coordinated list of Best Director contenders…

1. Joel & Ethan Coen – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Usually they hate even nominating teams, but this is different. Usually only Joel gets the director credit, but they decided to get realistic about it – everyone knows they both direct. This is perfect because, as much as it was deserved, it would have sucked if Joel won Best Director for Fargo because everyone would know that Ethan should have won too. Now they can win together!

2. Joe Wright – ATONEMENT – Audiences have been shocked at his accomplishment on only his second film (after Pride & Prejudice). I don’t think he’ll win unless there is a massive sweep (which there could be), because of the inexperience.

3. Ridley Scott – AMERICAN GANGSTER – He’s a director’s director. He’s been knighted for his directing, but he’s never won the Oscar. Even if this film isn’t nominated for Best Picture, he can probably get nominated.

4. Mike Nichols – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – If this film is good at all, he will get nominated. He’s Hollywood royalty with four previous nominations and one win (for The Graduate).

5. David Cronenberg – EASTERN PROMISES – David Cronenberg has never been nominated for an Oscar. Can you believe that?! Well, I guess I can. But his films have been getting more mainstream lately, and the Academy will like to encourage that.

6. Paul Thomas Anderson – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – If the Academy sees this film as him maturing and pulling his head out of his ass (I liked it there, for the record) then they will want to encourage that. It’s a good possibility for the Lone Director spot if the film is too dark for a Picture nod.

7. Francis Ford Coppola – YOUTH WITHOUT YOUTH – When he’s good, he’s the best (The Godfather). When he’s bad, it’s depressing (Jack). Let’s see which Coppola we get. This fact that he’s decided to go back to small, personal films and funded it himself with his wine fortune makes for a good story.

8. Tim Burton – SWEENEY TODD – Burton has never been nominated, unless you count the Animated Feature nomination for the Corpse Bride. If he manages to make a really good musical, they may decide it’s time to recognize his unique body of work.

9. Sean Penn – INTO THE WILD – Boy, do they love an actor-turned-director. He’s directed three features before, but everyone agrees this is his best.

10. Marc Forster – THE KITE RUNNER – If this becomes the underdog, crowd pleaser of the year, Forster is likely to get in there.

Other Contenders:
Shakur Kapur – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
Gavin Hood – RENDITION
Robert Redford – LIONS FOR LAMBS
Julian Schnabel – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
Ang Lee – LUST, CAUTION
Terry George – RESERVATION ROAD
Paul Haggis – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Mike Newell – LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
Sarah Polley – AWAY FROM HER
Todd Haynes – I’M NOT THERE

Here’s how I did last year on Directors:
1. Clint Eastwood (wrong film, but I had an excuse)
2. Martin Scorsese
3. Steven Soderbergh
4. Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
5. Paul Greengrass
6. Robert DeNiro
7. Stephen Frears
8. Pedro Almodovar
9. Oliver Stone
10. Mel Gibson (this was a joke)

All five nominees right there. I totally rule!

The Inner Sanctum

And now, an Awards Season bedtime story…

I once worked for a two-time Academy Award-winning producer, which is less about how awesome I am and more about how down and out he was at that point. When the beginning of the year came around a letter arrived from the AMPAS (the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences). In it was a badly xeroxed slip of paper that looked like it had been cut by hand with scissors. Here is what it said:

BEST PICTURE:

1st Choice ____________________________________

2nd Choice ____________________________________

3rd Choice ____________________________________

Yes, this is how the distinguished members of the Academy vote on the nominations for that most prestigious of awards for motion pictures. It is decidedly unpretentious.
The more interesting thing about the "ballot" that one might notice is the 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices they get to enter. This is meant to ensure that every vote is counted - and only once. How, you ask?

Let me tell you about the rather clever system the AMPAS uses. When they receive all of the ballots in a given category, the accountants lay them all out on a giant table, putting each one in a pile with other ballots with the same first choice. There are likely to be about 50 or so piles, some quiet large (say, Elizabeth: The Golden Age) and some quite small (say, Georgia Rule).

The simple thing to do would be to take the five biggest piles and call them the nominees. But no, every vote must count - and they don't want a Best Picture nominee that only 1/20th of the voting body liked.

This is where the second step comes in. All of those ballots sitting in tiny little piles – like the Georgia Rule ballots filled out by the film's producers – are moved into their 2nd choice's pile. Once a given pile has ballots totaling 1/6th of the total ballots they are a nominee.

If there are not five piles with 1/6th of the vote yet, the smallest piles left are then moved to their 3rd choice film. At this point the idea is that there will be a general consensus as to what the top five films of the year are. They are ensuring that every nominee was worth writing down to at least 1/6th of the voting body.

I think this is rather clever. It makes sure that the art director of Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer can vote for his own film and feel loyal, but then also vote for Atonement and actually have his vote counted. It plays to both the vanity and snotiness of Hollywood, its two greatest powers.

But who are these people filling out the ballots you ask? They are the most accomplished individuals in the business, in theory. But we've all seen many actors flourish for a time and then die and slow, painful straight-to-TBS death. That is why you see crazies like Gary Busey and Sally Kirkland show up at the awards every few years. The membership is too big for everyone to be invited every year, so invitations are rotated. Most actors have the class to decline the invitation unless they are nominated, presenting, or are in some way associated with a nominated film. But some people are shameless camera whores, like Miss Kirkland or Rod Steiger, back in the day.

There are currently 5830 members of the Academy, a number that will not go up much. They are only letting people in at about the rate of death of oldies. The basic break down is that each category of members nominates in their categories and everyone nominates Best Pictures. So, an actor votes in all four acting categories and Best Picture. A music member votes for Song, Score and Picture, and so on and so forth. Every member votes on the winners in every category (except a couple).
In case you wondered what the membership looks like, here's the breakdown:

Actors 1260
Producers 461
Executives 429
Sound 415
Writers 396
Art Directors 378
Directors 376
Public Relations 371
Members-at-Large 283
Animators 316
Visual Effects 249
Music 237
Editors 224
Cinematographers 186
Documentarians 134
Makeup 115 (A new category this year!)

TOTAL 5830

As interesting as it would be to the world-at-large to know who these mysterious members are, they do not publish a list. What they do give us every year is a look at the list of people who have been invited to become members. This shows how young and hip they are when they invite Jake Gyllenhaal or Dakota Fanning. Many invitees are that years' nominees who were not already members, but not always. Last year ago Heath Ledger was invited, Michelle Williams was not. About 120 people are invited each year (can you believe that many members die each year!).

Here's this year's list of actors invited:

Jennifer Aniston, Adriana Barraza, Steve Carell, Daniel Craig, Aaron Eckhart, Chiwetel Ejiofor, William Fichtner, Ryan Gosling, Jackie Earle Haley, Jennifer Hudson, Danny Huston, Eddie Murphy, Christopher Plummer (seriously!), James Rebhoun (look him up, you'll saw "oooh, that guy!" when you see his face), Michael Sheen, Maribel Verdu

All good choices. I just think it's bizarre that Christopher Plummer, the star of Best Picture winner on 1960, The Sound of Music, wasn't in there already.

And the Mid-Year Oscar Goes To.....

Here are my predictions for the Academy Award nominations were they to cut the year off at the end of August and have their big show. It would be a sad show. This list serves to show who the contenders are so far - and to show how few real contenders there are so far. This year might even be weaker than others. Last year Little Miss Sunshine had already been released by this time; and the year before, Crash had been out for months. I don't really see a serious Best Picture contender here.

BEST PICTURE
Away from Her
Hairspray
Once
Rescue Dawn
Zodiac
* This just goes to show you. It seems unlikely that any of these films will be on the list by November, let alone all the way until nomination time.

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher – Zodiac
William Friedkin – Bug
Werner Herzog – Rescue Dawn
Sarah Polley – Away from Her
Michael Winterbottom – A Mighty Heart
* Big directors with fairly good films are probably not going to be enough. I think Polley is the only one here with a chance of standing out.

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale – Rescue Dawn
Don Cheadle – Talk to Me
Richard Gere – The Hoax
Kal Penn – The Namesake
Gordon Pincett – Away from Her
* A couple of strong performances. If any of these hold up, it will be due to the weakness of the later entries.

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Anne Hathaway – Becoming Jane
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Keri Russell – Waitress
* I think a couple of these are likely to carry through the season. Christie is the stronger contender by far. The rest will depend on other women failing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chris Cooper - Breach
Jeff Daniels – The Lookout
Andy Griffith - Waitress
John Travolta - Hairspray
Steve Zahn – Rescue Dawn
*These guys have all been singled out in reviews of their respective films, but probably not enough.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hope Davis – The Hoax
Olympia Dukakis – Away from Her
Michelle Pfeiffer – Hairspray
Michelle Pfeiffer - Stardust
Maggie Smith – Becoming Jane
* Pfeiffer (for Hairspray) was actually the only person on my list. I had to dig the rest out just to fill in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knocked Up
The Lookout
Once
Superbad
Waitress
• These are all probably too light to make it to the promise land.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Away from Her
Bug
The Hoax
Talk to Me
Zodiac
• Away from Her will probably get recognition, the rest will be also-rans.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
300
Goya's Ghosts
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Rescue Dawn
Stardust

BEST EDITING
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
Paris Je T'aime
Rescue Dawn
Stardust

BEST ART DIRECTION
300
Becoming Jane
Goya's Ghosts
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Stardust

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
300
Becoming Jane
Goya's Ghosts
Hairspray
Stardust

BEST MAKEUP
300
Hairspray
Stardust

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
300
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

BEST SOUND MIXING
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
Hairspray
Spider-Man 3
Transformers

BEST SOUND EDITING
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
Evan Almighty
Ratatouille
Transformers

BEST SCORE
Becoming Jane
The Hoax
Goya's Ghosts
A Mighty Heart
Stardust

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The 11th Hour
Crazy Love
Into Great Silence
No End in Sight
Sicko

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Meet the Robinsons
Ratatouille
Shrek the Third
The Simpsons Movie
Surf's Up

We'll see how many of these last until November.

The Year So Far

The prestige movie season is upon us, and it's time for me to get caught up. I'm going to dedicate two blogs to the films that came out in the first two-thirds of 2007 – or what will probably make up 15% of the Oscar nominated films.

It is an unfortunate reality that the Academy has a short memory for films that come out before October. But the truth of the matter is that the studios (and indies) tend to schedule anything that they thing has good Oscar chances in the last three months of the year. An unintended positive consequence of this is that a small, but wonderful film will get the attention it would be denied in the end-of-the-year glut. Last year, Little Miss Sunshine benefited from a late summer release, and this year the much smaller Once has been playing strongly and building buzz for months.

It's easy to get behind on these early contenders, being too busy getting to the most recent blockbuster all summer. So here is a list of the ten films that are most likely to be remembered in a category or two come March 2008.

AWAY FROM HER – Sarah Polley's directorial debut has gotten glowing reviews for its maturity and vision. Look for lots of notice for stars Julie Christie and Gordon Pinsett as an elderly couple dealing with Alzheimers. Polley could also get awards for her adaptation of Alice Munro's short story.

ONCE – The little film that could. A $150,000 British film about a couple who meet, play music, and part. The film has won over the likes of Steven Spielberg and Bob Dylan and seems a shoe in for an Original Song nomination or two.


HAIRSPRAY – While this film didn't get the same prestige buzz as recent musicals, it has made more money and boasts stronger songs. Performances by John Travolta, Nikki Blonski, and Michelle Pfeiffer could all squeeze into weak categories. Original songs, sound mixing, and costumes are also strong contenders.

NO END IN SIGHT – The stand out documentary of the year so far. It will likely play well and stay in theaters up through the end of the year. A look at the debacle in Iraq from the perspective of participants confirms people's views without feeling like partisan hackery.

RATAOUILLE – Even more adult then previous Pixar entries, this could easily cross out of the Animated Film category onto Ten Best lists, technical and writing categories.

A MIGHTY HEART – It fizzled at the early summer box office, but if they're smart, I'm guessing they'll re-launch it in December or January. Angelina Jolie got very good reviews, and enough good leading women's roles are often hard to find to fill all the categories.

ZODIAC & RESCUE DAWN – These two films both got solid reviews (with a few champions), but seemed to be lost in pre-October ether. But in a year when the fall entries disappoint, these are just the kinds of films that come back up from behind to fill in some technical, supporting, and maybe even directing nominations.

WAITRESS – A very sweet and satisfying film, with the sentimental pull of director/writer/star Adrien Shelley's murder. Look for Waitress to get some Comedy category nominations at the Globes.

STARDUST – Right now, everyone is talking about what a flop this is. But people who actually see it like it. Its unique look could bring it some love in the technical categories.

THE HOAX – This came and went pretty fast, but look for them to revive it with a big DVD distribution at the end of the year. Richard Gere's performance could easily get some notice.

Normally, the big summer blockbusters would be major contenders in the technical categories. I don't see that happening very much this year. First, there are a few big period and fantasy films this year (Atonement, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Sweeney Tood, etc.) to take their places - which there haven't been many of in recent years. Second, they are all three-quels, and not greatly reviewed. They'll nominate the first, consider the second if it broke ground, but you've got to something really special to get a lot of recognition the third time around.

To cap off my look at the first eight months of the year I'll imagine the Oscar nominations were coming out tomorrow with only films already released and give my predicts. See ya soon.

'Tis the Season

The summer is over and it is officially Good Movie Season! Awards Season overlaps with Good Movie Season, but is not the same. While the Good Movie Season starts in early September and ends in early January, the Awards Season starts in late November and ends in March. This is also not to be confused with the Awards Anticipation Season, which starts when the Venice Film Festival does (late August) and ends on Oscar night.

For me, the awards themselves are somewhat pointless. Whether or not Children of Men won the Oscar for its editing (it didn't) won't affect its place in history. The awards will help your favorite films get seen by more people, which is nice and means the director and writers will work again, but little else. I don't love the Awards Season because I think it vindicates my taste, as I am inevitably disappointed by something (the aforementioned Children of Men slights).

I love the Awards Anticipation Season because I hate sports. But there is a place for something like sports in everyone's heart – the obsession, anticipation, joy, and heartbreak of learning everything and trying to make predictions about something over which you have absolutely no control. For some people it is Star Wars or soap operas or gambling or even sports themselves. For me, I guess, it is the Academy Awards. I choose it, because it is the only sport like activity that also involves my favorite thing – movies.

I love movies because I find so many things about the world fascinating and they can incorporate most of them. They can take my to Jane Austen's England even though I can never go there myself. They can show me the inner workings of the government, even though I will never work there myself. And they can show me a thousand heartbreaks and love stories that would be too much for one person to experience themselves.