So, here are my lists for the top contenders in the Picture and Director categories. Some of this is absolute guesswork and conjecture. To prove that I kind of know what I’m talking about, here is my list from the last week of September last year:
1. United 93
2. Flags of Our Fathers
3. The Departed
4. The Good German
5. The Queen
6. The Good Shepherd
7. Little Miss Sunshine
8. The Last King of Scotland
9. Babel
10. Dreamgirls
Even though I only have four out of five future nominees in there, I’m gonna give myself a 5 out of 5. See, they hadn’t changed the release date for Iwo Jima yet, so it wasn’t eligible when I made the list. But because I put Flags on there I’m going to take the point – cause, well, I make the rules.
BEST PICTURE
1. ATONEMENT – This film is so far in the lead at this point, it’s not even a contest. Every other film has either been seen by no one or got mixed reviews at the festivals. I have not heard a single bad thing about this film. It is an epic love story with period costume and war – you really can’t get anymore Oscar-friendly than that.2. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MAN – This is the only exception to “the mixed reviews at festivals” comment that I stated above. Even if it wins every single critics award, it’s just not as Oscar-friendly as Atonement. It will get nominated, it will win a few, but I don’t think it’ll get the top prize.
3. CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Pedigree. Pedigree. Pedigree. A big time political satire with loads of Oscar-winners (Hanks, Roberts, Nichols, P.S. Hoffman), based on an acclaimed book. But no one has seen it. So, it could be brilliant, or it could be another All the King’s Men.
4. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Maybe I’m crazy to rank it this high given the mixed festival reviews. But I keep thinking back to the first Elizabeth, that also had mixed reviews, yet was propelled to a Best Picture nod by a stellar lead performance and lots of technical love. Until some of the unknown quantities prove themselves worthy, I’ll keep it up here.
5. AMERICAN GANGSTER – This is one of those unknown quantities relying on its pedigree (Ridley Scott, Denzel and Russell) to put it on the list. An epic true story is always a good bet for some Oscar love.
6. THE KITE RUNNER – This has the potential to be this year’s Life is Beautiful. An uplifting tale without major stars, with a big director, based on a best-selling book about Afghanistan during the Soviet war and under the Taliban. Sounds like a winner to me.7. INTO THE WILD – This is the buzziest film of the moment. Right now, I’m unconvinced it will make the cut. I’ve heard it definitely skews toward a younger audience and that is not the Academy demographic.
8. THERE WILL BE BLOOD – It looks like Paul Thomas Anderson has really matured as a filmmaker. This one seems to lack the self-obsessed, modern, screw-up focus that prevented his earlier work from getting him a director or picture nod. However, it could still be too dark for the Academy’s taste.9. IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – This has the love-hate thing going for it that Paul Haggis’ previous outing, Crash, had – and that won Best Picture (ugh). But that one was a box office hit, and this one isn’t doing quite so well.
10. SWEENEY TODD – A totally unknown quantity, though an audience saw a few minutes at the Venice Film Festival. It may be too dark and bloody for the Academy, but they do love a good musical.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
Rendition (mixed Toronto reception)
Lions for Lambs (unseen)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Best Director at Canne)
Reservation Road (mixed at Toronto)
Youth Without Youth (unseen)
Love in the Time of Cholera (it’s strange how little buzz)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (mixed, no one will want to write that title on a ballot)
Once & Away from Her (critically acclaimed but small)
Eastern Promises (Audience Award at Toronto)
A somewhat coordinated list of Best Director contenders…
1. Joel & Ethan Coen – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Usually they hate even nominating teams, but this is different. Usually only Joel gets the director credit, but they decided to get realistic about it – everyone knows they both direct. This is perfect because, as much as it was deserved, it would have sucked if Joel won Best Director for Fargo because everyone would know that Ethan should have won too. Now they can win together!2. Joe Wright – ATONEMENT – Audiences have been shocked at his accomplishment on only his second film (after Pride & Prejudice). I don’t think he’ll win unless there is a massive sweep (which there could be), because of the inexperience.
3. Ridley Scott – AMERICAN GANGSTER – He’s a director’s director. He’s been knighted for his directing, but he’s never won the Oscar. Even if this film isn’t nominated for Best Picture, he can probably get nominated.
4. Mike Nichols – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – If this film is good at all, he will get nominated. He’s Hollywood royalty with four previous nominations and one win (for The Graduate).5. David Cronenberg – EASTERN PROMISES – David Cronenberg has never been nominated for an Oscar. Can you believe that?! Well, I guess I can. But his films have been getting more mainstream lately, and the Academy will like to encourage that.
6. Paul Thomas Anderson – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – If the Academy sees this film as him maturing and pulling his head out of his ass (I liked it there, for the record) then they will want to encourage that. It’s a good possibility for the Lone Director spot if the film is too dark for a Picture nod.
7. Francis Ford Coppola – YOUTH WITHOUT YOUTH – When he’s good, he’s the best (The Godfather). When he’s bad, it’s depressing (Jack). Let’s see which Coppola we get. This fact that he’s decided to go back to small, personal films and funded it himself with his wine fortune makes for a good story.8. Tim Burton – SWEENEY TODD – Burton has never been nominated, unless you count the Animated Feature nomination for the Corpse Bride. If he manages to make a really good musical, they may decide it’s time to recognize his unique body of work.
9. Sean Penn – INTO THE WILD – Boy, do they love an actor-turned-director. He’s directed three features before, but everyone agrees this is his best. 10. Marc Forster – THE KITE RUNNER – If this becomes the underdog, crowd pleaser of the year, Forster is likely to get in there.
Other Contenders:
Shakur Kapur – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
Gavin Hood – RENDITION
Robert Redford – LIONS FOR LAMBS
Julian Schnabel – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
Ang Lee – LUST, CAUTION
Terry George – RESERVATION ROAD
Paul Haggis – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Mike Newell – LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
Sarah Polley – AWAY FROM HER
Todd Haynes – I’M NOT THERE
Here’s how I did last year on Directors:
1. Clint Eastwood (wrong film, but I had an excuse)
2. Martin Scorsese
3. Steven Soderbergh
4. Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
5. Paul Greengrass
6. Robert DeNiro
7. Stephen Frears
8. Pedro Almodovar
9. Oliver Stone
10. Mel Gibson (this was a joke)
All five nominees right there. I totally rule!
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