The King and Queen of the Prom

One of the most difficult aspects of making early predictions in the acting categories is knowing which category the performance will be fit under – lead or supporting. A film like No Country for Old Men causes such a problem. Often we don’t know where to put a performance until they put together their Oscar campaigns and tell us all.

Sometimes it is pure politics. If an actor or actress has two potentially awardable performances in one year they will put one in the supporting category if it is at all possible. This is because you cannot get two acting nominations in the same category – I’m really not sure why. If there are two male leads (there are rarely two female leads) they may push one of them into the supporting category to give them both a better shot at a nomination. (This is an issue for American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, Jesse James.)

In a strong female acting year a leading lady who has a male co-star with a bigger part will be put in the supporting category (a la Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny). In a weak year, she will be in the lead category (a la Kate Winslett in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind). Kid actors will almost always be put in the supporting category even if they are in every frame of the film and they are the title character.

My point is, please make allowances if I put an actor in the wrong category. I’m not going to put them in both as it will take up space that could be occupied by others. I've limited myself to a list of ten with ten more posibilities. And just so no one freaks out, Javier Barden will be on my supporting list, because I hear they are going to campaign Josh Brolin in lead.

BEST ACTOR

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – THERE WILL BE BLOOD – He’s probably the most amazing actor out there, and he should have won for Gangs of New York. Even if the film is no good (god forbid!) his performance looks fantastic.

2. Johnny Depp – SWEENEY TODD – Depp is at that stage of his career where he will get nominated for any decent performance until he wins (like Pacino in the late-80s). If he proves he can sing, he will get nominated.

3. Tom Hanks – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – Hanks is at the stage in his career where he gets an honorary nomination every few years just to rack up a tally (see: Meryl Streep).

4. James McAvoy – ATONEMENT – He’s been coming on for a couple of years, but rumor has to his emotional range here blows away anything he’s done before. He’s Kate Winsett in this historical epic, not the more established Leo (that would be Miss Knightley).

5. Denzel Washington – AMERICAN GANGSTER – It’s a big meaty role with lots of dimension. The only thing that could hurt him is if it is too similar to his work in Training Day.

6. Tom Cruise – LIONS FOR LAMBS – At this point, people think he’s so crazy that they forget he’s an actor. They definitely underestimate how good he can be. The surprise if this is good could give him the buzz for another nod.

7. Tommy Lee Jones – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH – He’s Tommy Lee Jones, and he’s supposed to be good in this. And his costars in No Country will probably get all the attention.

8. Josh Brolin – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – He’s getting good buzz. His nomination would entirely depend on Javier Bardem being in the supporting category.

9. Viggo Mortensen – EASTERN PROMISES – Good reviews, and a stretch of a performance. It could be a winner.

10. Casey Affleck – GONE BABY GONE – Filling in this last spot was hard. I was tempted to go with one of the western stars, but I couldn’t single out one (a dilemna the Academy members may find themselves in). Affleck is having a great year. With two big performances, he’ll likely get some end-of-the-year notice.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Brad Pitt – The Assassination of Jesse James….
Russell Crowe – American Gangster or 3:10 to Yuma
Tim Roth – Youth Without Youth
Javier Bardem – Live in the Time of Cholera
Gordon Pincett – Away from Her
Christian Bale – 3:10 to Yuma or Rescue Dawn
Benicio DelToro – Things We Lost in the Fire
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Savages or Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
John Cusack – Grace is Gone


BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE – Even people who have hated the movie have said she’s fantastic. Many think she was robbed for the first one.

2. Julie Christie – AWAY FROM HER – The early favorite will probably hold up as many of the big female vehicles have been underwhelming.

3. Jodie Foster – THE BRAVE ONE – She’s gotten raves, but the film hasn’t. It has underperformed at the box office, but the performance will probably hold up.

4. Helena Bonham Carter – SWEENEY TODD – She’s never sung, so if she is good she is likely to be rewarded (a la Renee Zellweger for Chicago). I’ve seen some people putting her in the Supporting category. That doesn’t seem right to me as actresses who have played this part of Broadway have won awards in the lead category.

5. Keira Knightley – ATONEMENT – Word is she is very good, but nothing hugely new. Her co-stars have gotten more notice. She will likely make it in on a sweep however.. unless she’s Leo.

6. Anjelina Jolie – A MIGHTY HEART – She got overall good notices, with only a few critics commenting that it’s difficult to not see her as Anjelina Jolie. The film got buried this summer, so there would need to be a good campaign to remind voters about this one.

7. Halle Berry – THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE – I haven’t heard anything on this one yet, but it sounds like a tough role along the lines of her winning Monster’s Ball.

8. Julia Roberts – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR – The marketing team will always give her big billing, so that doesn’t really tell us if this is a supporting or lead performance. From the costumes alone, it looks like a new type of role for her.

9. Laura Linney – THE SAVAGES – It looks like Linney is back in You Can Count on Me territory, which is always a good thing.

10. Marion Cotillard – LA VIE EN ROSE – People love to say they are into Edith Piaf. I think it makes them feel all the good things about being French. What better way to prove it then to vote for Cotillard’s acclaimed performance as the late singer... if enough of them saw it.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Tang Wei – LUST, CAUTION
Charlize Theron – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Nicole Kidman – MARGOT AT THE WEDDING
Naomi Watts – EASTERN PROMISES
Jennifer Connelly – RESERVATION ROAD
Reese Wiltherspoon - RENDITION
Samantha Morton – CONTROL
Ellen Page – JUNO
Keri Russell - WAITRESS

Here are my lists from last October:
1. Forest Whitaker (bam!)
2. Ryan Gosling (bam!)
3. Peter O’Toole (bam!)
4. Matt Damon
5. George Clooney
6. Brad Pitt
7. Leonardo DiCaprio (bam!)
8. Will Smith (5 for 5, baby!)
9. Patrick Wilson
10. Ryan Philippe

1. Helen Mirren (yup!)
2. Penelope Cruz (yup!)
3. Kate Winslett (yup!)
4. Annette Bening
5. Cate Blanchett
6. Renee Zellweger
7. Beyonce Knowles
8. Judi Dench (yup!)
9. Maggie Gyllenhaal
10. Keke Palmer
And #7 on my Supporting Actress list… Meryl Streep (5 for 5, baby!)

I’m done with the easy lists. Now for the most difficult to divine of all – the supporting acting categories! As my lists from last year will prove, these are the toughest to predict early.