It is an unfortunate reality that the Academy has a short memory for films that come out before October. But the truth of the matter is that the studios (and indies) tend to schedule anything that they thing has good Oscar chances in the last three months of the year. An unintended positive consequence of this is that a small, but wonderful film will get the attention it would be denied in the end-of-the-year glut. Last year, Little Miss Sunshine benefited from a late summer release, and this year the much smaller Once has been playing strongly and building buzz for months.
It's easy to get behind on these early contenders, being too busy getting to the most recent blockbuster all summer. So here is a list of the ten films that are most likely to be remembered in a category or two come March 2008.
AWAY FROM HER – Sarah Polley's directorial debut has gotten glowing reviews for its maturity and vision. Look for lots of notice for stars Julie Christie and Gordon Pinsett as an elderly couple dealing with Alzheimers. Polley could also get awards for her adaptation of Alice Munro's short story.ONCE – The little film that could. A $150,000 British film about a couple who meet, play music, and part. The film has won over the likes of Steven Spielberg and Bob Dylan and seems a shoe in for an Original Song nomination or two.
HAIRSPRAY – While this film didn't get the same prestige buzz as recent musicals, it has made more money and boasts stronger songs. Performances by John Travolta, Nikki Blonski, and Michelle Pfeiffer could all squeeze into weak categories. Original songs, sound mixing, and costumes are also strong contenders.
NO END IN SIGHT – The stand out documentary of the year so far. It will likely play well and stay in theaters up through the end of the year. A look at the debacle in Iraq from the perspective of participants confirms people's views without feeling like partisan hackery.
RATAOUILLE – Even more adult then previous Pixar entries, this could easily cross out of the Animated Film category onto Ten Best lists, technical and writing categories.A MIGHTY HEART – It fizzled at the early summer box office, but if they're smart, I'm guessing they'll re-launch it in December or January. Angelina Jolie got very good reviews, and enough good leading women's roles are often hard to find to fill all the categories.
ZODIAC & RESCUE DAWN – These two films both got solid reviews (with a few champions), but seemed to be lost in pre-October ether. But in a year when the fall entries disappoint, these are just the kinds of films that come back up from behind to fill in some technical, supporting, and maybe even directing nominations.
WAITRESS – A very sweet and satisfying film, with the sentimental pull of director/writer/star Adrien Shelley's murder. Look for Waitress to get some Comedy category nominations at the Globes.
STARDUST – Right now, everyone is talking about what a flop this is. But people who actually see it like it. Its unique look could bring it some love in the technical categories.
THE HOAX – This came and went pretty fast, but look for them to revive it with a big DVD distribution at the end of the year. Richard Gere's performance could easily get some notice.
Normally, the big summer blockbusters would be major contenders in the technical categories. I don't see that happening very much this year. First, there are a few big period and fantasy films this year (Atonement, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Sweeney Tood, etc.) to take their places - which there haven't been many of in recent years. Second, they are all three-quels, and not greatly reviewed. They'll nominate the first, consider the second if it broke ground, but you've got to something really special to get a lot of recognition the third time around.
To cap off my look at the first eight months of the year I'll imagine the Oscar nominations were coming out tomorrow with only films already released and give my predicts. See ya soon.
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