And the Mid-Year Oscar Goes To.....

Here are my predictions for the Academy Award nominations were they to cut the year off at the end of August and have their big show. It would be a sad show. This list serves to show who the contenders are so far - and to show how few real contenders there are so far. This year might even be weaker than others. Last year Little Miss Sunshine had already been released by this time; and the year before, Crash had been out for months. I don't really see a serious Best Picture contender here.

BEST PICTURE
Away from Her
Hairspray
Once
Rescue Dawn
Zodiac
* This just goes to show you. It seems unlikely that any of these films will be on the list by November, let alone all the way until nomination time.

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher – Zodiac
William Friedkin – Bug
Werner Herzog – Rescue Dawn
Sarah Polley – Away from Her
Michael Winterbottom – A Mighty Heart
* Big directors with fairly good films are probably not going to be enough. I think Polley is the only one here with a chance of standing out.

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale – Rescue Dawn
Don Cheadle – Talk to Me
Richard Gere – The Hoax
Kal Penn – The Namesake
Gordon Pincett – Away from Her
* A couple of strong performances. If any of these hold up, it will be due to the weakness of the later entries.

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Anne Hathaway – Becoming Jane
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Keri Russell – Waitress
* I think a couple of these are likely to carry through the season. Christie is the stronger contender by far. The rest will depend on other women failing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chris Cooper - Breach
Jeff Daniels – The Lookout
Andy Griffith - Waitress
John Travolta - Hairspray
Steve Zahn – Rescue Dawn
*These guys have all been singled out in reviews of their respective films, but probably not enough.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hope Davis – The Hoax
Olympia Dukakis – Away from Her
Michelle Pfeiffer – Hairspray
Michelle Pfeiffer - Stardust
Maggie Smith – Becoming Jane
* Pfeiffer (for Hairspray) was actually the only person on my list. I had to dig the rest out just to fill in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knocked Up
The Lookout
Once
Superbad
Waitress
• These are all probably too light to make it to the promise land.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Away from Her
Bug
The Hoax
Talk to Me
Zodiac
• Away from Her will probably get recognition, the rest will be also-rans.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
300
Goya's Ghosts
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Rescue Dawn
Stardust

BEST EDITING
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
Paris Je T'aime
Rescue Dawn
Stardust

BEST ART DIRECTION
300
Becoming Jane
Goya's Ghosts
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Stardust

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
300
Becoming Jane
Goya's Ghosts
Hairspray
Stardust

BEST MAKEUP
300
Hairspray
Stardust

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
300
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

BEST SOUND MIXING
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
Hairspray
Spider-Man 3
Transformers

BEST SOUND EDITING
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
Evan Almighty
Ratatouille
Transformers

BEST SCORE
Becoming Jane
The Hoax
Goya's Ghosts
A Mighty Heart
Stardust

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The 11th Hour
Crazy Love
Into Great Silence
No End in Sight
Sicko

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Meet the Robinsons
Ratatouille
Shrek the Third
The Simpsons Movie
Surf's Up

We'll see how many of these last until November.