Emoting for Gold

The acting categories are interesting this year. The actors are locked – if Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem don’t win, it will be a shocker. But the ladies are wide open. Best Actress has an early frontrunner (Christie), a late-breaking frontrunner (Cotillard), a favorite (Page), and a dark horse (Linney). Supporting Actress has FIVE worthy contenders, who have all won pre-Oscar awards and buzz. Very frustrating. So, it may be helpful to weigh the pros and cons of each.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: People say it’s his best work ever. Nominated for every major pre-Oscar award. Lots of support for the film, especially for the acting. AGAINST HIM: He just won two years ago. Um, he’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Daniel Day-Lewis – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR HIM: Every single pre-Oscar award – BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe, etc. Long considered one of the greatest actors living. An iconic role. Beautiful acceptance speeches that show genuine gratitude, humility, and appreciation. AGAINST HIM: Maybe a little envy or backlash. CHANCES OF WINNING: 60%

Johnny Depp – SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
FOR HIM: Three nominations in the last five years and a twenty-year career the Academy is just aching to reward. He took on a difficult singing role and proved his mettle. AGAINST HIM: Not a lot of love for the film. The character was supremely unlikable. He’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Tommy Lee Jones – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
FOR HIM: The third nomination for the veteran actor. His most subtle, complex work in years. People may want to reward him for his work in No Country as well. AGAINST HIM: He’s won already. The film was mostly ignored. He’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Viggo Mortensen – EASTERN PROMISES
FOR HIM: This is the first nomination in an awesome career. He wrestles a dude naked, does a difficult accent, and had tattoos painted on everyday. AGAINST HIM: It’s not his year, because he’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
FOR HER: It’s a powerhouse performance for the greatest actress of this generation. She should have won for the first Elizabeth. AGAINST HER: People hated this movie. She’s got a better performance nominated in the supporting category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Julie Christie – AWAY FROM HER
FOR HER: A legend with four nominations. Her portrayal of an Alzheimer’s patient has won her most of the pre-Oscar awards – SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe. AGAINST HER: The buzz has died down since her lackluster speech at the SAG Awards, which unfortunately came a couple minutes after Day-Lewis’s tribute to Heath Ledger. She’s won before. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Marion Cotillard – LA VIE EN ROSE
FOR HER: The buzz. She’s been the late breaking contender, winning the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Once people actually see the film, it’s hard for them to vote against her portrayal of Edith Piaf from age 20 to 47. AGAINST HER: Love for Miss Christie. Did enough people see it in time? CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Laura Linney – THE SAVAGES
FOR HER: This is the third nomination for one of the most respected, mature actresses around. She goes to new places, unafraid of appearing vulnerable and pathetic. AGAINST HER: The film is probably too small and light to get people to see and vote for it. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Ellen Page – JUNO
FOR HER: Love for the film, and her unique, intelligent performance. The sense that this is a star-making performance. AGAINST HER: She’s young and it’s a comedy. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES…
FOR HIM: A banner year with this film and Gone Baby Gone. AGAINST HIM: He’s young, it’s his first nomination, and he’s proved to be a bit low on personality during the award season. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Javier Bardem – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR HIM: Almost all of the pre-Oscar awards. The only nominated performance in the biggest best picture contender. He’s been awesome at the award shows, adding just enough humor to go along with Day-Lewis’s thoughtfulness. AGAINST HIM: Overhype, maybe. CHANCES OF WINNING: 45%

Philip Seymour Hoffman – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
FOR HIM: He stole every scene from the two biggest stars of the last two decades. AGAINST HIM: A comedic role in a film with no other nominations. He just won two years ago. Absent from the award season activities. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Hal Holbrook – INTO THE WILD
FOR HIM: The sentimental choice. A heartbreaking role for a veteran actor with no previous Oscar attention. AGAINST HIM: Little support for the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Tom Wilkinson – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: A meaty, crazy role in a best picture contender. The veteran character actor has yet to win. AGAINST HIM: There’s another actor with a meatier, crazier role in a bigger best picture contender. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – I’M NOT THERE
FOR HER: Many pre-Oscar awards, lots of buzz. She’s considered one of the greatest actresses around, and she reached new heights playing a version of Bob Dylan. Won the Golden Globe. AGAINST HER: She just won in this category three years ago. Some see it as mere imitation, or didn’t see this strange movie at all. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Ruby Dee – AMERICAN GANGSTER
FOR HER: The sentimental choice. This is the first nomination for the veteran actress and civil rights activist. She steals every scene. Won the SAG. AGAINST HER: She’s only in two or three scenes – five minutes of screen time. She’s played this role for decades. (See: Jungle Fever, Do the Right Thing) The film didn’t get nominated much. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Saoirse Ronan - ATONEMENT
FOR HER: A breakthrough performance for a young actress is often awarded in this category. She shows maturity beyond her years. AGAINST HER: She’s young and everyone knows she’s got the lead in the Lovely Bones next year. She’ll have plenty of opportunities. (I hope!) CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Amy Ryan – GONE BABY GONE
FOR HER: A veteran of the stage and the amazing television show The Wire makes the transition to big screen stardom with a splash. She won almost all the early awards including the Critics Choice. AGAINST HER: The buzz seems to have faded a bit. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Tilda Swinton – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HER: Surprisingly, the first nomination for the strange and captivating British actress. She surprised everyone by winning the BAFTA. Everyone will have actually seen this film, since it’s a picture contender. AGAINST HER: The BAFTAs probably came too late. She’s kind of strange. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

THOSE OTHER CATEGORIES

These categories are sometimes hard to assess. Not as many people have seen the foreign and documentary films, and it’s sometimes hard to assess the chances of a song or score. But here is my attempt to do just that. I’ll put up the actors tomorrow and writing/directing/picture up on Wednesday. If I get a chance to see the shorts, I’ll write about them later this week.

BEST FOREIGN LANUAGE FILM

Beaufort
FOR IT: Israel’s gotten seven nominations over the years, but never won. Variety calls it “sparse but powerful”. AGAINST IT: The big movie from Israel this year was The Band’s Visit, which was declared ineligible because it had too much English. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

The Counterfeiters
FOR IT: Only the second nominee from Austria. EW predicts a win for this story of concentration camp prisoners forced to make counterfeit money by the Nazis. AGAINST IT: Being the frontrunner doesn’t mean much in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Katyn
FOR IT: Polish Director Andrzei Wajda is a legend who already has an honorary Oscar for lifetime achievement to his name. But he has never won for a competitive Oscar. Variety calls the story of the Russian massacre of thousands of Poles during WWII an “academic master class”. AGAINST IT: Reviews say it lacks the emotional immediacy that it should have. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Mongol
FOR IT: Kazakhstan’s first nominated film came in with the highest awareness of any. It’s an epic about the younger years of Genghis Khan. Variety calls it a “beautifully mounted actioner”. AGAINST IT: Early recognition does mean much when you have to see all five films to be allowed to vote. Action films don’t usually thrive in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

12
FOR IT: The fifth (or 14th if you count the USSR) nomination for Russia. The story is basically twelve angry men judging a Chechen while really revealing all of the current problems of Russia. Variety calls it “expansive, dramatic, magnificent”. AGAINST IT: A low-profile entry. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No End in Sight
FOR IT: The most critically acclaimed documentary of the year – and not a slouch at the box office. It is largely considered to be one of the most thoughtful, non-partisan, well researched films on the war in Iraq so far. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 30%

Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
FOR IT: Like Letters from Home but for Iraq instead of Vietnam. The war told from the soldier’s point of view. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. The higher profile No End in Sight. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Sicko
FOR IT: Previous winner Michael Moore gets a little more personal, taking on the American health care system. The highest grossing film in the bunch. Has more to do with the current battle for the presidency than the war films. AGAINST IT: Moore fatigue. The sense that this is a minor film for him. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%

Taxi to the Dark Side
FOR IT: From the previous nominees from Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, a look at the treatment of political prisoners by Americans in Afghanistan. The WGA Award. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. This stuff doesn’t make you happy to be an American. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

War/Dance
FOR IT: Children at a refugee camp in northern Uganda prepare to enter a music competition. Delves into the lives of sadly affected children in places we often forget about. AGAINST IT: The sad truth is, we ignore these situations and focus more on our own concerns. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Persepolis
FOR IT: The most serious of the contenders. The beautifully hand animated story of a young woman’s life in revolutionary Iran. Simply stunning. AGAINST IT: Some people still won’t take an animated drama seriously. It’s a small film and in French. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Ratatouille
FOR IT: The most mature and beautiful Pixar film yet. Brad Bird is an animation auteur. Film people can relate to the plot about leaving your family to pursue your artistic dreams. Simply breathtaking. AGAINST IT: A couple awkward moments in the script (which went through several phases). CHANCES OF WINNING: 55%

Surf’s Up
FOR IT: Um, well, the member’s kids probably liked it. AGAINST IT: It’s a piece of puff, with mediocre reviews and box office up against two major artistic achievements. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dario Marianelli – ATONEMENT
FOR IT: The most talked about score of the year, besides Johnny Greenwood’s ineligible There Will Be Blood work. The interweaving of the score and the sound in the film was awesome. AGAINST IT: The score does bring a lot of attention to itself, a quality some people detest. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%

Alberto Iglesias – THE KITE RUNNER
FOR IT: The only nomination for a film that was thought it be a picture contender early on. Iglesias was nominated for his Constant Gardener score before. AGAINST IT: It’s the film's only nomination – meaning, no one saw it. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

James Newton Howard – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR IT: This is Howard’s seventh nomination without a win. Subtle work in a best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Subtle doesn’t win Oscars. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Michael Giacchino – RATATOUILLE
FOR IT: This French-tinged score was heavenly. Giacchino should have been nominated for his iconic work on The Incredibles. AGAINST IT: More sweet than soaring. Not a best picture contender. Composers rarely win on their first nomination. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Marco Beltrami – 3:10 TO YUMA
FOR IT: The first nomination for the genre picture “IT” boy. His score was memorable – lots of reference to the classic western scores. AGAINST IT: It’s just not high profile enough. He’s new to this club. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%


BEST SONG

“Falling Slowly” – ONCE
FOR IT: The only nomination from a critically acclaimed film that people took seriously. The song is an important part of the story in the film. AGAINST IT: Subtle, folky, indie rock don’t usually appeal to the older Academy members. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

“Happy Working Song” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: With 18(!) nominations and 8(!) wins, Alan Menken is Academy royalty. His spoofs of classic Disney song types were universally praised. AGAINST IT: But it’s got competition from two other songs from the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

“Raise It Up” – August Rush
FOR IT: It doesn’t have the genre hurdles of “Falling Slowly” or the split voting of the Enchanted songs. So, it could just win by default. It’s a big, uplifting type song. AGAINST IT: It’s kinda cheesy. The movie wasn't very good. First time nominees. CHANCES OF WINNING 20%

“So Close” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: This is the serious love song from Enchanted. So maybe people will take it more seriously. AGAINST IT: Or not. It doesn’t have the cleverness of the other nominees. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

“That’s How You Know” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: The most well-known of the songs from Enchanted, since it was in the ads. Therefore, the most likely from the film to win. AGAINST IT: Split vote. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

A Little Technical Analysis

I always like to take a deeper look at each nominee in each category. I find this is a great aid in making my prediction choices. You can look at a list of five films and make a decision. But I find myself sometimes making different choices when I weigh the films against each other. Qualities stand out that you may not notice on first glance. And assuming that Academy members spend more than 10 seconds thinking about their choices (at least a good portion of them), this is a more accurate way to look at the choices.

So, I’ll start with the technical categories. Before next weekend, I’ll look at the acting categories, picture/director/writing, and the leftover categories (shorts, foreign, documentary, animation, and music).


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
FOR IT: Nominated for the ASC Award. Roger Deakins has gotten seven Oscar nominations in the last 13 years, but he’s never won. AGAINST IT: Deakins is also up for his work in No Country, a movie the voters will have seen. All the nominees were up for the ASC. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 10%

Atonement
FOR IT: That tracking shot on the beach. A best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Seamus McGarvey’s first nomination – he’s not in the club yet. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
FOR IT: The camera plays the main character for the first 40 minutes of the film! Janusz Kaminski is the legendary cinematographer of Schindler’s List. AGAINST IT: Kaminski has won twice already. Not a best picture contender. 20%

No Country from Old Men
FOR IT: Deakins has been nominated for four Coen Brother’s films. He’s due. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as its major competition – Diving Bell and Blood. CHANGES FOR WINNING: 25%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: This one actually won the ASC Award! It’s got the flash, wiz, bang that the voters (the whole membership, not just the cinematographers) love. AGAINST IT: Robert Elswitt is young. This is only his second nomination. CHANGES FOR WINNING: 30%


BEST EDITING

The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: Won the BAFTA. Lots of editing with quick cuts = noticeable editing. AGAINST IT: The editing award almost always goes to a picture contender, usually the winner. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
FOR IT: Amazing montages and flashbacks. AGAINST IT: First time nominee. Not a picture nominee. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Into the Wild
FOR IT: Lots of different locations and scenary shots. AGAINST: Just about everything. Not a picture or director nominee and Jay Cassidy is a first time nominee. The lack of nominations shows that much of the Academy had little affection for the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: Likely to win Best Picture, and Roderick Jaynes was nominated for Fargo but didn’t win. Also, Jaynes is imaginary – it’s really the Coen Brothers. AGAINST IT: Some could find the cutesiness of the pseudonym annoying. CHANCES FOR WINNING 40%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: Epics do well in this category, as they are seen as being hard to put together. Also, a serious best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Dylan Tichenor is a first time nominee. Some people thought the film could use a little more editing. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%


BEST ART DIRECTION

American Gangster
FOR IT: Huge period sets, two previous nominees. AGAINST IT: Recent period films are generally not showy enough to impress many members. Not a picture nominee. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Atonement
FOR IT: The decadence of the upper-crust English countryside, and the ravages of war (especially the stunningly designed set piece at Dunkirk) all in one film. Both designers were previously nominated for Pride & Prejudice. Won the BAFTA. AGAINST IT: These Brits may not be well known in American circles. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

The Golden Compass
FOR IT: The biggest films of the bunch, previous winner Dennis Gassner (Bugsy) and nominee Anna Pinnock (Gosford Park) had to create a London, Finland, and North Pole somewhere between the past and the future. AGAINST IT: People didn’t like the film much. How much of it was digital? CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Sweeney Todd
FOR IT: Gothic beauty in every shot. The streets of London have never looked so haunting. Dante Ferretti is the man, with nine nominations under his belt and one win for the Aviator. AGAINST IT: Not a lot of support for the film. It takes place primarily at one location. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: The sets fell authentic and lived in. A serious picture contender. It won the Production Designers Guild. AGAINST IT: The authenticity makes the sets feel more functional than beautiful – and beauty is what they want. Both designers are first time nominees. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Across the Universe
FOR IT: It’s period. This is the sixth nomination for Albert Wolsky, who has two previous wins, for Bugsy and All That Jazz. AGAINST IT: The film wasn’t loved, so most people probably didn’t see it. The rule for period films is the longer ago it was, the more votes it gets. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Atonement
FOR IT: That green dress is already iconic. The clothes are important throughout the film, without being a self-conscious fashion show. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as some of the other nominees. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Elizabeth: The Golden Age
FOR IT: The oldest period and the most elaborate costumes, by far. Alexandra Byrne has been nominated four time (including for the first Elizabeth), but has never won. AGAINST IT: Lack of affection for the film itself could lead people to ignore it. These types of costumes have been done before….a lot. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

La Vie En Rose
FOR IT: Probably would get the award for the most costume changes (always a good indicator). Takes us from 1918 all the way to 1963. AGAINST IT: First time nominee. Recent periods. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Sweeney Todd
FOR IT: The amazing Colleen Atwood (7 nominations and 2 wins in the last 13 years). The costumes feel layered, textured, and lived in. AGAINST IT: A lack of costume changes. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST MAKEUP

La Vie En Rose
FOR IT: The gorgeous Marion Cotillard is transformed into the distinctive Edith Piaf from her youth to her ravaged middle age. The only nominee in the category that is a contender in others. AGAINST IT: First time nominees. Not much else. CHANCES OF WINNING: 60%

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
FOR IT: Lots of previous nominations and wins. A lot of work. AGAINST IT: Lots of the biggest makeup jobs were digital. The franchise is stale. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Norbit
FOR IT: The king of makeup artists – Rick Baker (11 nominations and 5 wins). AGAINST IT: Absolute hate for the film and the characters Eddie Murphy plays under that makeup. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Golden Compass
FOR IT: The only nominee to create characters never before visualized. Had to deal with extensive human interaction with their creations. AGAINST IT: Some of the effects look rushed. The film wasn’t loved. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
FOR IT: The series has had some truly groundbreaking effects, especially in the digital makeup realm. These guys all have at least three nominations to their names. AGAINST IT: They already won for Pirates 2, for pretty much the same stuff. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Transformers
FOR IT: These guys are old pros. There are no seams in the work – or at least none you can see with the camera and cuts moving so fast. AGAINST IT: It’s easier to animate robots than creatures with a pulse. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%


BEST SOUND MIXING

3:10 to Yuma
FOR IT: Great sound is hard in a film that takes place almost entirely outdoors. AGAINST IT: It’s not a picture contender or a huge blockbuster – the two groups that usually dominate this category. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: The three guys are all previous nominees, two are winners. It’s in the blockbuster category. AGAINST IT: There is a bigger blockbuster in this category. This series is known more for its distinctive visuals than its sound. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: The only best picture nominee in the category – and it’s likely to win. Most of the film lacks a score, making it important that the sound is flawless, which it was. It won the CAS Awards. AGAINST IT: Not as flashy as the “big” movies in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Ratatouille
FOR IT: All of these guys are big time stuff, especially 14 time nominee Randy Thom. AGAINST IT: Animated films usually do better in the Sound Editing category, which has more to do with creating sounds from scratch. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Transformers
FOR IT: Oh my god! This is Kevin O’Connell’s 20th (!) nomination without EVER winning! We can’t forget his partner Greg P Russell; this is his 12th nomination without a win. And this is the loudest, highest grossing film in the category. It could finally be his year! AGAINST IT: People don’t know that they are voting for the Susan Lucci of the Oscars – they just see the film name. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%


BEST SOUND EDITING

The Bourne Ultimatum
FOR IT: Like the sound mixing category, loud and popular movies are favored – it fact, even more so in this category. AGAINST IT: There are louder movies and two best picture contenders here. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

No Country for Old Men
FOR IT: The big picture contender. There are lots scenes without dialog or music, which brings attention to the sound effects work. AGAINST IT: No explosions or robots. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%

Ratatouille
FOR IT: Again, Randy Thom and Michael Silvers are many time nominees and winners. They have to build every sound from scratch in animation. AGAINST IT: They won before for The Incredibles, a much louder, action packed film. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Transformers
FOR IT: The loudest movie with lots of sounds that had to be created. These guys won twice before for King Kong and The Two Towers. AGAINST IT: Not a lot of love for the movie itself. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 25%

There Will Be Blood
FOR IT: Amazing set pieces with interesting sound. The opening scenes of silence bring attention to the sound. AGAINST IT: The huge score may overwhelm the other sound in the picture. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%

The British are Here

The Academy Awards are upon us – the British Academy that is. They are usually my favorite awards show of the year; though last year was a bit lackluster, with the usual, hilarious host Stephen Fry being replaced by boring talk show host Jonathon Ross. Ross will be hosting against this year, which is disappointing. Oh well, the awards themselves are usually great.

I usually agree with the winners at the BAFTAs a little more than the Oscars. They tend to aim for the best of this year, rather than weighing the politics of who has won what and who deserves what. That said, I’m significantly worse at predicting the winners of the BAFTAs.

Below are this year’s nominees. No category matches the Oscar nominations five for five. Most are 2 or 3, less than most years. I still think we will be seeing a lot of the same winners. Those nominated for an Oscar are in bold and my predictions are in italics. After the awards, I will put a star next to the winners.

The BAFTAs air on BBC America at 5pm on Sunday.

BEST FILM
AMERICAN GANGSTER
*ATONEMENT
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

BEST BRITISH FILM
ATONEMENT 

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
CONTROL
EASTERN PROMISES
*THIS IS ENGLAND

THE CARL FOREMAN AWARD FOR SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT BY A BRITISH DIRECTOR, WRITER OR PRODUCER IN THEIR FIRST FEATURE FILM
CHRIS ATKINS (Director/Writer) – Taking Liberties

MIA BAYS (Producer) – Scott Walker: 30 Century Man

SARAH GAVRON (Director) – Brick Lane

*MATT GREENHALGH (Writer) – Control

ANDREW PIDDINGTON (Director/Writer) – The Killing of John Lennon

DIRECTOR
ATONEMENT – Joe Wright

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM – Paul Greengrass

THE LIVES OF OTHERS – Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck

*NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Joel Coen/Ethan Coen

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Paul Thomas Anderson

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Steven Zaillian

*JUNO – Diablo Cody

THE LIVES OF OTHERS – Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck

MICHAEL CLAYTON – Tony Gilroy

THIS IS ENGLAND – Shane Meadows

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ATONEMENT – Christopher Hampton

*THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY – Ronald Harwood

THE KITE RUNNER – David Benioff

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Joel Coen/Ethan Coen

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Paul Thomas Anderson

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY 

THE KITE RUNNER 

*THE LIVES OF OTHERS 

LUST, CAUTION 

LA VIE EN ROSE

ANIMATED FILM
*RATATOUILLE – Brad Bird 

SHREK THE THIRD – Chris Miller

THE SIMPSONS MOVIE – David Silverman

LEADING ACTOR
GEORGE CLOONEY – Michael Clayton

*DANIEL DAY-LEWIS – There Will Be Blood

JAMES McAVOY – Atonement

VIGGO MORTENSEN – Eastern Promises

ULRICH MÜHE – The Lives of Others

LEADING ACTRESS
CATE BLANCHETT – Elizabeth: The Golden Age

JULIE CHRISTIE – Away From Her

MARION COTILLARD – La Vie en Rose

KEIRA KNIGHTLEY – Atonement 

ELLEN PAGE – Juno

SUPPORTING ACTOR
*JAVIER BARDEM – No Country for Old Men

PAUL DANO – There Will Be Blood

TOMMY LEE JONES – No Country for Old Men

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – Charlie Wilson’s War

TOM WILKINSON – Michael Clayton

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
CATE BLANCHETT – I’m Not There

KELLY MACDONALD – No Country for Old Men

SAMANTHA MORTON – Control 

SAOIRSE RONAN – Atonement 

*TILDA SWINTON – Michael Clayton

MUSIC
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Marc Streitenfeld

ATONEMENT – Dario Marianelli 

THE KITE RUNNER – Alberto Iglesias

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Jonny Greenwood

*LA VIE EN ROSE – Christopher Gunning

CINEMATOGRAPHY
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Harris Savides

ATONEMENT – Seamus McGarvey

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM – Oliver Wood

*NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Roger Deakins

THERE WILL BE BLOOD – Robert Elswit

EDITING
AMERICAN GANGSTER – Pietro Scalia

ATONEMENT – Paul Tothill

*THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM – Christopher Rouse

MICHAEL CLAYTON – John Gilroy

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN – Roderick Jaynes

PRODUCTION DESIGN
*ATONEMENT
ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE 

HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
THERE WILL BE BLOOD
LA VIE EN ROSE

COSTUME DESIGN
ATONEMENT 

ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE 

LUST, CAUTION
SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET 

*LA VIE EN ROSE

SOUND
ATONEMENT 

*THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN 

THERE WILL BE BLOOD 

LA VIE EN ROSE

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM 

*THE GOLDEN COMPASS
HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S 

SPIDER-MAN 3

MAKE UP & HAIR
ATONEMENT 

HAIRSPRAY 

SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET 

*LA VIE EN ROSE

SHORT ANIMATION
*THE PEARCE SISTERS 

THE CRUMBLEGIANT

SHORT FILM
*DOG ALTOGETHER 

HESITATION 

THE ONE AND ONLY HERB MCGWYER PLAYS WALLIS ISLAND
SOFT 

THE STRONGER

Initial Thoughts

Overall, I am very happy with the nominations this year. The films are deserving and there is no distinct frontrunner. In my predictions, I mostly erred in following the path of Into the Wild through the guilds. I should have gone with my gut instinct all season on that film - that it wouldn't appeal to the older Academy voters. Oh well. I still got a respectable, 67% overall and 73% in the major categories. If I give myself half points for the spoiler choices it bumps up to 75% and 81% respectively. Not too bad, but I've done better. There is always next year.

Now that the race for the win is on, here's your list of films to see before the big show, in order of priority. I actually calculated based on number of nominations, weighing big categories more than smaller ones (giving no weight to whether I thought they were likely to win those categories). Let's see how far down the list we get this year. There's only 47 films, so it shouldn't take more than 100 hours.

1. Michael Clayton
2. There Will Be Blood
3. No Country for Old Men
4. Atonement
5. Juno
6. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
7. Ratatouille
8. Away from Her
9. The Savages
10. Sweeney Todd
11. La Vie En Rose
12. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
13. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
14. Eastern Promises
15. In the Valley of Elah
16. Into the Wild (can you believe how low this is!)
17. American Gangster
18. Charlie Wilson's War
19. I'm Not There
20. Gone Baby Gone
21. Mongol
22. The Counterfeiters
23. 12
24. Beaufort
25. Katyn
26. Transformers
27. Lars and the Real Girl
28. The Bourne Ultimatum
29. 3:10 to Yuma
30. Enchanted
31. No End in Sight
32. Sicko
33. War/Dance
34. Taxi to the Dark Side
35. Operation Homecoming
36. Persepolis
37. Surf's Up
38. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
39. The Golden Compass
40. The Kite Runner
41. Across the Universe
42. Once
43. August Rush
44. The Animated Shorts
45. The Live-Action Shorts
46. The Documentary Shorts

And only, only if you've seen all of those. As a last resort....
47. Norbit

I've seen 15 already and plan on doubling that before the big night. Race you there!

The Final Countdown

I’ve been sorely absent this season. But if there was ever a season to do it, it’s definitely the one where the ceremony might not even happen. Let it be known, that I don’t actually think this will happen. I’ll elaborate on my thoughts on that later. I’ve been enjoying watching the build passively and panicking every time I think about all that I haven’t written.

But I had to put in my final nomination predictions. This is my very favorite part of the race. I’m better at predicting the nominations then the winners. I usually go five for five in a few categories, three for five in a few more, and four for five in most. There is usually one or so two for fives.

I think I’ve done a pretty good job this year. I’ve tried taking a step back and going back to my old techniques and ignoring the buzz. I did much better before the explosion of Oscar coverage of the last three or so years. So, I’ve gone back to my old mathematical techniques of weighing the early awards, the BAFTAs, and the Guilds.

When it comes to Best Picture, I think it’s important to look for films with broad support across categories. This year it was very difficult to narrow down the five pics as it was such a strong year. In general, the math came out in favor of the consensus. The funny thing is, most people are ignoring the consensus in favor of the buzz. There is a difference.

Without further ado:

BEST PICTURE
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, Juno, American Gangster

MY REASONING: This is the DGA list exacting, which seems stupid to predict. I added up everything, looked at it from every angle, and this list consistently came out on top. Diving Bell would be the first foreign film with a best picture nomination that wasn’t a big hit. But when you see the support it has across the guilds, it’s impossible to ignore. I resisted leaving Juno and Atonement out for a long time – but Atonement was left out by the directors, actors, producers, writers, and editors. And I can’t justify leaving any of the others out in favor of Juno. So, there you go.

BEST DIRECTOR
Joe Wright – Atonement
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn – Into the Wild
Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton, Sidney Lumet – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

MY REASONING: Coen, Amderson, and Schnabel are shoe-ins. The Academy loves actors turned directors like Penn. I give the lone director slot to Wright because the old-school directors in the Academy will appreciate his accomplishment.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch – Into the Wild
James McAvoy – Atonement
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
POSSIBLE SPOILERS – Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd, Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl

MY REASONING: It is shocking how little support Sweeney Todd has gotten. Depp didn’t get a SAG nomination. SAG went for Gosling, but I think some people won’t like the film or see the work as minor compared to Half Nelson last year. McAvoy’s is a star-making performance.

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Keira Knightley – Atonement

MY REASONING: Christie, Cotillard, and Page are shoe-ins. Jolie hasn’t been nominated since her win almost a decade ago. I did a last minute switcharoo between Linney and Blanchett. I think when the actors are filling out their ballots they’ll think one nod is enough for Miss Blanchett (for supporting) and spread the wealth around.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James…
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Max Von Sydow – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Tommy Lee Jones – No Country for Old Men, Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War

MY REASONING – There are four shoe-ins and a wild card. I don’t see people being passionate about Hoffman’s performance. I originally slotted in Jones, but made a last minute split for Von Sydow. He was nominated for Pell the Conqueror decades ago. When people talk about how heart-wrenching his performance is, they forget to mention that he is also playing a Frenchman. He’s Swedish! I think the older voters may remember this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Saoirse Ronan – Atonement, Jennifer Garner – Juno

MY REASONING: I went for the sentimental choice for my fifth slot with Ruby Dee. I personally thought she was awesome. Her SAG nomination probably made a lot of people think about that just in time.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eastern Promises
Juno
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lars and the Real Girl, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

MY REASONING: This was a hard category to fill in this year. Everything is adapted! I decided to slot in Ratatouille because it is one of the only animated films ever with a single writer and it’s about art and passion. Then a chose Eastern Promises over Lars because I just can’t see them going for the blow up doll movie.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Away from Her, Zodiac

MY REASONING: Despite the plethora of quality choices, I found this list rather easy to come up with. I think only a last minute surge for Zodiac would chance it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jess James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild

MY REASONING: This is the ASC list exactly, and it’s hard to argue with.

BEST EDITING
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, The Bourne Ultimatum

MY REASONING: A repeat of my Picture list; another thing that gives me confidence in my choices. All of these got ACE nods except Diving Bell.

BEST ART DIRECTION
300
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: American Gangster, The Golden Compass

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lust, Caution, American Gangster

MAKE UP
300
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
La Vie En Rose
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sweeney Todd, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

VISUAL EFFECTS
300
I Am Legend
Transformers
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Bourne Ultimatum, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Atonement, 300

BEST SOUND EDITING
300
Beowulf
The Bourne Ultimatum
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Ratatouille, I Am Legeng

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Ratatouille
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lust, Caution

MY REASONING: The news just came out that Johnny Greenwood's amazing score for There WIll Be Blood is ineligible due to use of other music and references to other music in it. Lame.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Come So Far” – Hairspray
“Do You Fell Me” – American Gangster
“Falling Slowly” – Once
“Guaranteed” – Into the Wild
“Rise” – Into the Wild
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: “Society” – Into the Wild, “If You Want Me” – Once

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nanking
No End in Sight
The Rape of Europa
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Operation Homecoming, Lake of Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bee Movie
Persepolis
Ratatouille
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Simpsons Movie, Beowulf

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Days of Darkness
Katyn
Mongol
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Unknown Woman, 12

MY REASONING: This list is ridiculous, and choosing five films from nine that haven’t been released in the United States is ridiculous. So, I kind of went the random route.


There you have it. Some of these will be wrong, but I think it’s pretty solid. I’m hoping to get 80%, the high end of my usual. Here are the tallies:

Into the Wild – 10
There Will Be Blood - 9
No Country for Old Men - 7
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – 7
Michael Clayton – 6

Atonement – 7
300 - 4
La Vie En Rose – 3
The Assassination of Jesse James… - 3
Sweeney Todd - 3
Juno – 2 (*The fact that it is so likely to get so few nominations is why I took it off my Best Picture list)
The Savages - 2
Eastern Promises – 2
American Gangster – 2
Ratatouille – 2
Elizabeth: The Golden Age – 2
Hairspray – 2
The Bourne Ultimatum - 2
Transformers - 2
Away From Her – 1
A Mighty Heart – 1
I’m Not There – 1
Gone Baby Gone – 1
I Am Legend – 1
The Kite Runner - 1

The State of the State of the Race

I know it's been a long time. I was excessively busy with school and work for a while, then I had a hard time coming up with what to write. I've been planning on putting up an early look at the "other" film categories (Foreign, Documentary, etc), and I still plan to. In the mean time, I wanted to throw my two-cents in on the race so far.

Here's something I've learned increasingly this years. I'm getting very annoyed with Oscar sites. I love the information they put together for me, and the analysis of what was included by this critics association, what was left out by that one, and what that all means for the films hopes of Oscar glory. I love the collections of FYC ads and the predictions for nominations.

If the sites would stick to this type of analysis - I would be happy. But I increasingly find myself sifting through blatant love letter campaigns for a favorite film or performance, personal feelings of hate for a certain producer or film, shit-talking about other sites, defamation of the character of critics as a way of discounting their opinions, and a constant comparison of who knows more about the race and who is clueless. I'm sick of this stuff. It's taking the fun out of the game. I don't want to talk any further about this, as it will turn into exactly the kind of rhetoric I dislike and I believe sullies everything I love about awards season.

Back to the real subject of this blog! I've enjoyed the critics lists so far. I've been glad to see really interesting, and justifiable, choices on most of their parts. There is no consensus - which makes for an exciting year. I don't report on them individually, as that's just not the kind of site I'm running. I prefer to see them all come out and then look at them as a whole. I believe this is where their significance to the race lies. We find general trends (Helen Mirren sweeping every single one last year) that may carry through. We see the films that did not get the support they needed. And we can narrow (or widen!) our lists a little.

Tomorrow, the Golden Globe nominations come out. And while I think their significance to the Oscar race has been almost completely diminished, I'll do a little piece on it and the Critics Choice nominations. The fun part is just beginning!