Your Homework Before Oscar Night

There are only four weeks until Oscar night and there are 38 films nominated. So it's time to get crackin. Here's a list of all the movies you should see before Oscar night in order of importance. This is based purely on nominations and not on likeliness of winning, giving more weight to more important categories. Race you to the finish!

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Milk
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Reader
6. Doubt
7. The Dark Knight
8. Wall-E
9. The Wrestler
10. Frozen River
11. Changeling
12. Revolutionary Road
13. Rachel Getting Married
14. The Visitor
15. Waltz with Bashir
16. The Baader Meinhof Complex
17. The Class
18. Departures
19. Revanch
20. Man on Wire
21. Encounters at the End of the World
22. Trouble the Water
23. The Betrayal
24. The Garden
25. Kung Fu Panda
26. Bolt
27. Tropic Thunder
28. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
29. Happy-Go-Lucky
30. In Bruges
31. Iron Man
32. The Duchess
33. Wanted
34. Defiance
35. Australia
36. The Nominated Animated Shorts
37. The Nominated Live-Action Shorts
38. The Nominated Documentary Shorts

I've seen 15 so far, but I would like to get at least another 5 or 6 in. So, let's get watching!

How Do You Get the Most Votes and Still Lose? (Besides with the Electoral College

I have to point out one of the strangest things about this year's nominations. It is very likely the that performance that received the most votes in the Best Actress category was not nominated. How you ask? To understand, you first have to know about two rules the Academy has - one that makes sense and one that doesn't. The first rule is that if a performance receives votes in both the lead and supporting categories (as there is no technical differentiation between them) all of the votes go into the category that received more votes. This way, there is a true representation of the amount of votes the performance got. This prevents a split vote that would leave a highly praised performance with no nomination. This makes sense, doesn't it?

The second rule is that one actor cannot be nominated in the same category twice. This is a stupid rule and it exists in no other category (directors and sound designers can compete against themselves.) This is why you will often see an actor who had two good performances in a year campaigning for one of them in the supporting category. This makes no sense, as an actor's work in one movie is totally separate from their work in another. It's ridiculous that they can be nominated for both if one is called a 'supporting performance' even though there is no definition of supporting versus lead.

So, in the case of this year, Kate Winslet had two stellar performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. While Revolutionary Road is obviously a lead, they have been campaigning her in the supporting category for The Reader so she could get recognized for both. But apparently a lot of people didn't buy it and voted for her in the lead category instead. Since she obviously received more votes in the lead category than in the supporting, they moved all of her votes into the lead category. Even if she received far more lead actress votes for Revolutionary Road, the combined total of her Reader votes would have been higher, thus making her ineligible to be nominated for Revolutionary Road. Totally ridiculous. So, that is how a performance can get the most votes in its category and still not be nominated.

The Contenders

I've gone back and put the actual nominees in bold. I did pretty well this year with 82%.

So, I didn’t get any of the blogs done that I wanted. But the time approaches nonetheless, and I can’t possibly go a year without logging in my predictions for the Oscar nominations. I often enjoy this part more than predicting the winners, which can be a much more political and exact science. The predictions are a matter of balance and refinement, so I can usually manage five out of five in a couple of categories, three out of five in a few, and four out of five in most. It will be seen tomorrow if my lack of excessive study has a huge affect on my predicting ability (either positive or negative). So without further ado…


BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Wall-E
NOT MENTIONED: The Reader

MY REASONING: Written at the beginning of this process: I was going to go for the exact list from the DGA and PGA but I decided to swap The Dark Knight for Revolutionary Road at the last minute. Last year, I went for the DGA list which had The Diving Bell and Into the Wild as opposed to Atonement and Juno. My gut told me Atonement and I ignored it. I’m going to go with my hunch that the dominant actors branch will carry Road over the finish line.
Written at the end: I chickened out. After predicting that the Dark Knight would get TEN nominations even without Best Picture, I can no longer justify leaving it out. Tomorrow, I will either be high fiving myself or slapping my forehead.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant – Milk

POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Sam Mendes, Stephen Daldry, Andrew Stanton

MY REASONING: This group has dominated the award season and they will continue to do so at the Oscars.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins

MY REASONING: I had a hard time deciding which of the two pretty boys, DiCaprio or Pitt would make the cut. Pitt had racked up more points, but I think there was more talk about DiCaprio’s actual performance as opposed to Pitt’s special effects. Rather than go for both, I thought I would let Eastwood sneak in as you can never lose money betting on him with the Academy.


BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Anjelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslett – Revolutionary Road
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Melissa Leo, Cate Blanchett, Kristin Scott Thomas

MY REASONING: Throughout the season, there have been eight strong performances rotating honors in this category. The precursors all varied, giving no help at all. So I picked these five, somewhat randomly, just based on hunches. So I know at least one of the ladies I put in the spoilers will probably be on the list, if not all three.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Michael Sheen, Michael Shannon, James Franco

MY REASONING: I feel pretty settled on this five. I have a feeling if someone else shows up on this list, it will be totally out of left field.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslett – The Reader
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Amy Adams, Freida Pinto, Rosemary DeWitt

MY REASONING: My only hesitation on this list was deciding which of the ladies from Doubt would make the it. I decided to favor Davis, despite being less well known than Amy Adams. I think she’s got that underdog element that will compel more people to vote for you.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Burn After Reading, Wall-E, In Bruges
NOT MENTIONED: Frozen River

MY REASONING: This is an adaptation heavy year, but there are still a lot of big contenders here. The precursors are wide spread and therefore unhelpful. So hopefully I guessed well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revolutionary Road, The Dark Knight

MY REASONING: I went with Doubt over Road, since the biggest complaint about Road is the over-the-top dialog. No one has been raving about Shanley’s direction of Doubt, but his adaptation of his own play has that prestige factor.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Revanch, Departures, Tear Out This Heart, 3 Monkeys

MY REASONING: Having only seen one of these movies (the amazing Waltz), I first go by other nomination and awards, then country. Since there are only nine to choose from, I guess I’m guaranteed at least one.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man On Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Betrayal, Made in America, They Killed Sister Dorothy
NOT MENTIONED: The Garden

MY REASONING: Once again, I have limited knowledge beyond the 15 films on the short list. Again – awards, reviews, buzz, and then just interesting titles.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Bolt, Madagascar: Escape to Africa

MY REASONING: I think the Academy is insane if this isn’t the list. This would be the strongest animation list ever.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Milk, Changeling, Australia

BEST EDITING (5 for 5!!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Iron Man, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler

BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Australia, Milk, Revolutionary Road
NOT MENTIONED: The Duchess

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Australia
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Dark Knight, Milk, Sex and the City

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: The Wrestler, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Hellboy II

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3 for 3 !!)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Hellboy II: The Golden Army

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Quantum of Solace, The Wrestler, Australia
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Slumdog Millionaire, The Incredible Hulk, Cloverfield
NOT MENTIONED: Wanted

BEST SCORE
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
NOT MENTIONED: Defiance

BEST SONG
“Down to Earth” – Wall-E
“Jaiho” – Slumdog Millionaire
“Gran Torino” – Gran Torino
“Once in a Lifetime” – Cadillac Records
“The Wrestler” – The Wrestler
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: “I Thought I Lost You”, “Another Way to Die”. "O Saya”

Awards Count:
Benjamin Button – 13 (15)
Slumdog Millionaire - 10 (13)
The Dark Knight – 11 (12)
Milk – 6 (11)
Revolutionary Road – 4 (10)
Frost/Nixon – 5 (7)
Wall-E – 4 (7)
Changeling – 4 (5)
Doubt – 4 (5)
The Wrestler – 3 (6)
The Reader – 3 (5)

The King and Queen of the Prom

I’ll keep it moving with the actor lists.

BEST ACTOR

1. Sean Penn – MILK – An amazing performance that couldn’t be more different from his Oscar-winning turn in Mystic River. Loads of critics and nominations can’t be wrong!

2. Mickey Rourke – THE WRESTLER – A truly mesmerizing, hearth-breaking performance. Unlike The Ram, Rourke has learned to behave himself in descent society and campaign for his awards with that whole redemption narrative.

3. Frank Langella – FROST/NIXON – Langella goes beyond imitation in reviving his stage performance as Nixon. The Academy loves that, since they all still think theatre is more respectable than film.

4. Richard Jenkins – THE VISITOR – A usually invisible character actor turns in a beautiful lead performance. Hopefully, he doesn’t get overshadowed by the other character actor turned lead (see Langella above).

5. Brad Pitt – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The title character in a many-times-nominated film usually gets in there. But a lot of people find his performance to be too passive.

6. Leonardo DiCaprio – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – They say it’s his best work. But he could be overshadowed by bigger films and by his co-star. (Like he was last time he worked with Winslett.)

7. Clint Eastwood – GRAN TORINO – The Academy loves Eastwood to an unhealthy degree. Perhaps the lack of a Golden Globe or SAG nomination is the first sign that the love affair is over.

8. Benicio Del Toro – CHE – A totally left field choice.

9. Josh Brolin – W – If the Academy is feeling particularly political.

10. Ralph Fiennes – THE READER – I’m just filling up slots at this point.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
That’s pretty much it. It’s a thin year.


BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep – DOUBT – The fact that Meryl Streep will be nominated any year she puts a little effort in is inevitable.

2. Kate Winslett – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – Powerhouse stuff from the actress who might just break the record for most nominations without a win.

3. Anne Hathaway – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED – A whole lot of critics’ prizes and a bunch of sympathetic press coverage work well for her.

4. Anjelina Jolie – THE CHANGELING – Who doesn’t want Jolie to show up to their party?!

5. Melissa Leo – FROZEN RIVER – The female equivalent of Richard Jenkins.

6. Cate Blanchett – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – Beautiful work making a sometimes unlikable character thoroughly relatable.

7. Sally Hawkins – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY – The little known British actress has gotten raves, critics awards, and a Globe nomination for her work in Mike Leigh’s latest.

8. Kristin Scott Thomas – I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG – Thomas is likely to get nominated if enough people actually see her in this film about a woman just released from prison. Did I mention she acts in perfect French!

9. Kate Beckinsale – NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH – She gets in here solely on a Critics Choice nomination.

10. Michelle Williams – WENDY AND LUCY – This little film is starting to pick up some steam, not to mention the sympathy votes.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Rebecca Hall – VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Emma Thompson – LAST CHANCE HARVEY

Again, it’s a pretty thin year. Not to mention the fact that a lot of the spectulative fat has been trimmed by this time. For instance, I won’t bother putting down Nicole Kidman for Australia.

Here’s my lists from September of last year:

ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (yup!)
2. Johnny Depp (yup!)
3. Tom Hanks
4. James McAvoy
5. Denzel Washington
6. Tom Cruise
7. Tommy Lee Jones (yup!)
8. Josh Brolin
9. Viggo Mortenson (yup!)
10. Casey Affleck
OTHER CONTENDERS: George Clooney (yup!!)

So, 4 ½ ain’t bad!

ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Right!)
2. Julie Christie (Right!)
3. Jodie Foster
4. Helena Bonham Carter
5. Keira Knightley
6. Anjelina Jolie
7. Halle Berry
8. Julia Roberts
9. Laura Linney (Right!)
10. Marion Cotillard (Right)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Ellen Page (Right!)

Another 4 ½. So, I rightly predicted all five nominees six months in advance. But stupid Juno and stupid Michael Clayton once again lower my batting average.

Getting a Late Start

This year has just walked right by me in a haze of work, school, and presidential elections. Now that I have a little time to relax and look around, I thought I would venture back into the Oscar blogosphere. Obviously, this will not be comprehensive, as I usually start in September, but I couldn’t go the whole season without putting my two cents in. So, I’ll start with my annual lists of the top contenders in each category before posting my final predictions for the nominees.

It’s shaping up to be a great year. The pool of films in consideration seems to be a bit small this year, but the quality to great. Without further ado, here are the top contenders for Best Picture and Director.

BEST PICTURE

1. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE – Virtually every critics’ prize, along with nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG guarantee a spot for Danny Boyle’s Indian Dickens story.

2. THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The classic best picture contender of the bunch. It should receive the move nominations of any film easily.

3. FROST/NIXON – The actors’ movie. It’s this year’s The Queen or Michael Clayton. It makes it through on loads of actors’ support.

4. MILK – The “important” film of the year. Everyone likes it, though it could be hurt by a lack of enthusiastic passion for it.

5. WALL-E – An inordinate amount of love from critics (Los Angeles and Chicago) could move Wall-E from the Animation category.

6. DOUBT – If there is room for two acting-heavy adaptations of Pulitzer-Prize winning plays, then this could slip in too.

7. THE DARK KNIGHT – Hollywood cannot ignore the will of the people and their $500 million.

8. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – This is the kind of polished, old-school drama that the academy used to drool over.

9. THE READER – Never underestimate Nazis.

10. THE WRESTLER – Love for Mickey Rourke’s acting could push this little film farther.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Happy-Go-Lucky, Gran Torino, Defiance


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Danny Boyle – SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2. David Fincher – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
3. Gus Van Sant – MILK
4. Ron Howard – FROST/NIXON
5. Christopher Nolan – THE DARK KNIGHT
6. Sam Mendes – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
7. Stephen Daldry – THE READER
8. Andrew Stanton – WALL-E
9. Mike Leigh – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
10. Darren Aronofsky – THE WRESTLER

OTHER CONTENDERS:
John Patrick Shanley – DOUBT, Jonathon Demme – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Clint Eastwood – THE CHANGELING/GRAN TORINO

Here’s a look back on how I did with my early list (late September!) last year.

PICTURE:
1. Atonement (yes!)
2. No Country for Old Men (yes!)
3. Charlie Wilson’s War
4. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. American Gangster
6. The Kite Runner
7. Into the Wild
8. There Will be Blood (yes!)
9. In the Valley of Elah
10. Sweeney Todd

And I totally missed Juno and Michael Clayton. D’oh!

DIRECTOR:
1. Joel and Ethan Coen (yup!)
2. Joe Wright
3. Ridley Scott
4. Mike Nichols
5. David Cronenberg
6. Paul Thomas Anderson (yup!)
7. Francis Ford Coppola
8. Tim Burton
9. Sean Penn
10. Marc Forster
Other Contenders: Julian Schnabel (yup!)

Once again, I totally missed the whole Michael Clayton and Juno thing. That kind of messed up my numbers. But it was early in the year, this year should be better, given how late in the season it is.

The Curtain Closes on Another Year

So, it was a good year. I got 18 out of 24 correct. That was a perfect 8/8 in the major categories (my against-the-grain actress picks paid off!), 4/6 in the "other" types of films categories, and 6/10 in the technical categories (which was pretty much the fault of me betting on Transformers!). I actually won the predicttheoscars.com contest, which is awesome. And I guess I'll get a $50 gift card to show for that. Yea me!

I have two more blogs that I have to post to officially finish off this year and move on to the next. First, I'll finally write up my personal top ten pictures of the year. I always like to wait until this time of year so I will have had time to see plenty of the big films and the dust has settled from all the awards' hype.

Lastly, I'll put up my crazy, super early prediction for next year. That's always one of my favorite things to do.

My Final Predictions

So, it all boils down to this – my final predictions. Feel free to use them in your pool, if you are so inclined. This year was a combination of obvious (Best Actor) and perplexing (Best Supporting Actress). We shall see if I leaned enough in the right direction to do well this year. So, without further ado…

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

What Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Why: It’s a strong year, but there are just too many signs that point in this direction. The trifecta of the DGA, PGA, and SAG haven’t lined up like this since The Return of the King. The only people voting against it are trying to be that ‘one guy who predicted the upset’. I don’t have the guts to try and be that.


BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman – Juno
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Who Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men

Why: Not only did they win the DGA, you can come to this conclusion by process of elimination. Gilroy and Reitman are honored by the nomination. Anderson and Schnabel are great, but they are newer to the business. They don’t have resumes to match the Coens yet. So, I think it’s theirs; and very well earned.


BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortenson – Eastern Promises

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood

Why: No one else even comes close. I think he’s an even bigger shoe-in then Helen Mirren last year.


BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno

Who Will Win: Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose

Why: This is a hard category. The only think we can be sure of is that Blanchett will not win in this category. Linney and Page will probably be left out for “light” work – and they’ll have chances in the future. That leaves Christie and Cotillard. I think the Academy likes to see lead actresses suffer and no one suffered like Cotillard.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men

Why: Affleck and Hoffman are definitely also-rans. Wilkinson’s part is showy but small. Holbrook is the sentimental choice, but I think people have been charmed by Bardem.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

Why: This is so hard, but I’m going for the Binoche play. In a category where all five nominees are going to get a lot of votes you have to lean toward the nominees from the best pictures (the ones people will have seen). Between Ronan and Swinton, I think voters will go for Swinton – a worthy actress.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Who Will Win: Juno

Why: I was going to be brave and go for Michael Clayton, since I think there is a lot of love for the film. But the screenplay for Juno stands out so much that I think it will muscle through.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Why: This is actually a difficult category. I think Away from Her is out and Diving Bell, Blood, and Atonement are all more visual films than "writerly". So, that leaves us with another one for No Country.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: There Will Be Blood

Why: Again, this is a very strong category. The subtle work of Diving Bell and No Country isn’t the sort of thing the Academy usually goes for. Not enough people will see Assassination. The veteran Elswit will beat out the newbie on Atonement like he did at the ASC.


BEST EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Why: This award almost always goes to a picture nominee, and usually the winner. Against Blood, the quicker, more tense No Country will win. So, another imaginary person will win an Oscar. Though watch out for a possible Bourne spoiler - it one the ACE award.


BEST ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: Sweeney Todd

Why: I think it’s between Todd and Atonement. The more artificial, stylized sets for Todd will probable trump the Dunkirk setpiece.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd

Who Will Win: La Vie En Rose

Why: I had a hard time with this one. I know Across the Universe won’t win. Atonement has that awesome green dress, but not much else. Elizabeth and Todd have the most elaborate costumes, but the movies weren’t loved by the Academy, and there was nothing much new. I think people’s love affair with Cotillard will find its way into this category.


BEST MAKEUP
La Vie En Rose
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Norbit

Who Will Win: La Vie End Rose

Why: No one liked the other two movies. Good makeup at the service of a great performance has an advantage – see Ed Wood.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Who Will Win: Transformers

Why: Because they’re more than meets the eye. Hehe. The Golden Compass had some sloppy work and Pirates was mostly repeat of the Part II stuff that already won.


BEST SOUND MIXING
3:10 to Yuma
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Transformers

Who Will Win: Transformers

Why: The loudest usually wins here. So Kevin O’Connell may finally get his Oscar!


BEST SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
Ratatouille
No Country for Old Men
Transformers
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: Transformers

Why: The loudest again, though this category is a little tougher. I think There Will Be Blood could be a potential spoiler.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

Who Will Win: Atonement

Why: It’s by far the most memorable score of the year (excluding There Will Be Blood).


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Falling Slowly” – Once
“Happy Working Song” – Enchanted
“Raise Up” – August Rush
“So Close” – Enchanted
“That’s How You Know” – Enchanted

Who Will Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once

Why: In earlier years I would go for “That’s How You Know”, but the last few years have seen the younger voters overpowering the love of traditional musical and end-of-the-credit ballad numbers.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up

Who Will Win: Ratatouille

Why: Persepolis will get a lot of votes – from those who actually see it. But the genius and success of Brad Bird’s film will triumph.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

Who Will Win: No End in Sight

Why: The popular choice is often the right choice. Throughout the year, No End in Sight has been the most consistently praised of the bunch.


BEST FOREIGN FILM
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Katyn
Mongol
12

Who Will Win: The Counterfeiters

Why: When in doubt, go Holocaust. When you haven’t seen any of the films, and none have been released, go with the consensus.


BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
Meme les Pigeons Vont au Paradis
My Love
Peter and the Wolf

Who Will Win: Madame Tutli Putli

Why: My usually technique with the animated shorts is to go with the silliest name. It’s a surprisingly affective one.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
At Night
Il Supplente
Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman

Who Will Win: Le Mozart des Pickpockets

Why: An interesting title. Also, on a list of predictions from various sources, it had the highest number.


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Freeheld
La Corono
Salim Baba
Sari’s Mother

Who Will Win: Freeheld

Why: The majority of prognosticators are going for it, and I’ll follow.

That’s it. I feel pretty good on most of them. We shall see tomorrow.