The King and Queen of the Prom

I’ll keep it moving with the actor lists.

BEST ACTOR

1. Sean Penn – MILK – An amazing performance that couldn’t be more different from his Oscar-winning turn in Mystic River. Loads of critics and nominations can’t be wrong!

2. Mickey Rourke – THE WRESTLER – A truly mesmerizing, hearth-breaking performance. Unlike The Ram, Rourke has learned to behave himself in descent society and campaign for his awards with that whole redemption narrative.

3. Frank Langella – FROST/NIXON – Langella goes beyond imitation in reviving his stage performance as Nixon. The Academy loves that, since they all still think theatre is more respectable than film.

4. Richard Jenkins – THE VISITOR – A usually invisible character actor turns in a beautiful lead performance. Hopefully, he doesn’t get overshadowed by the other character actor turned lead (see Langella above).

5. Brad Pitt – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The title character in a many-times-nominated film usually gets in there. But a lot of people find his performance to be too passive.

6. Leonardo DiCaprio – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – They say it’s his best work. But he could be overshadowed by bigger films and by his co-star. (Like he was last time he worked with Winslett.)

7. Clint Eastwood – GRAN TORINO – The Academy loves Eastwood to an unhealthy degree. Perhaps the lack of a Golden Globe or SAG nomination is the first sign that the love affair is over.

8. Benicio Del Toro – CHE – A totally left field choice.

9. Josh Brolin – W – If the Academy is feeling particularly political.

10. Ralph Fiennes – THE READER – I’m just filling up slots at this point.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
That’s pretty much it. It’s a thin year.


BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep – DOUBT – The fact that Meryl Streep will be nominated any year she puts a little effort in is inevitable.

2. Kate Winslett – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – Powerhouse stuff from the actress who might just break the record for most nominations without a win.

3. Anne Hathaway – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED – A whole lot of critics’ prizes and a bunch of sympathetic press coverage work well for her.

4. Anjelina Jolie – THE CHANGELING – Who doesn’t want Jolie to show up to their party?!

5. Melissa Leo – FROZEN RIVER – The female equivalent of Richard Jenkins.

6. Cate Blanchett – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – Beautiful work making a sometimes unlikable character thoroughly relatable.

7. Sally Hawkins – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY – The little known British actress has gotten raves, critics awards, and a Globe nomination for her work in Mike Leigh’s latest.

8. Kristin Scott Thomas – I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG – Thomas is likely to get nominated if enough people actually see her in this film about a woman just released from prison. Did I mention she acts in perfect French!

9. Kate Beckinsale – NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH – She gets in here solely on a Critics Choice nomination.

10. Michelle Williams – WENDY AND LUCY – This little film is starting to pick up some steam, not to mention the sympathy votes.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Rebecca Hall – VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, Emma Thompson – LAST CHANCE HARVEY

Again, it’s a pretty thin year. Not to mention the fact that a lot of the spectulative fat has been trimmed by this time. For instance, I won’t bother putting down Nicole Kidman for Australia.

Here’s my lists from September of last year:

ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (yup!)
2. Johnny Depp (yup!)
3. Tom Hanks
4. James McAvoy
5. Denzel Washington
6. Tom Cruise
7. Tommy Lee Jones (yup!)
8. Josh Brolin
9. Viggo Mortenson (yup!)
10. Casey Affleck
OTHER CONTENDERS: George Clooney (yup!!)

So, 4 ½ ain’t bad!

ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Right!)
2. Julie Christie (Right!)
3. Jodie Foster
4. Helena Bonham Carter
5. Keira Knightley
6. Anjelina Jolie
7. Halle Berry
8. Julia Roberts
9. Laura Linney (Right!)
10. Marion Cotillard (Right)
OTHER CONTENDERS: Ellen Page (Right!)

Another 4 ½. So, I rightly predicted all five nominees six months in advance. But stupid Juno and stupid Michael Clayton once again lower my batting average.

Getting a Late Start

This year has just walked right by me in a haze of work, school, and presidential elections. Now that I have a little time to relax and look around, I thought I would venture back into the Oscar blogosphere. Obviously, this will not be comprehensive, as I usually start in September, but I couldn’t go the whole season without putting my two cents in. So, I’ll start with my annual lists of the top contenders in each category before posting my final predictions for the nominees.

It’s shaping up to be a great year. The pool of films in consideration seems to be a bit small this year, but the quality to great. Without further ado, here are the top contenders for Best Picture and Director.

BEST PICTURE

1. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE – Virtually every critics’ prize, along with nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG guarantee a spot for Danny Boyle’s Indian Dickens story.

2. THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – The classic best picture contender of the bunch. It should receive the move nominations of any film easily.

3. FROST/NIXON – The actors’ movie. It’s this year’s The Queen or Michael Clayton. It makes it through on loads of actors’ support.

4. MILK – The “important” film of the year. Everyone likes it, though it could be hurt by a lack of enthusiastic passion for it.

5. WALL-E – An inordinate amount of love from critics (Los Angeles and Chicago) could move Wall-E from the Animation category.

6. DOUBT – If there is room for two acting-heavy adaptations of Pulitzer-Prize winning plays, then this could slip in too.

7. THE DARK KNIGHT – Hollywood cannot ignore the will of the people and their $500 million.

8. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD – This is the kind of polished, old-school drama that the academy used to drool over.

9. THE READER – Never underestimate Nazis.

10. THE WRESTLER – Love for Mickey Rourke’s acting could push this little film farther.

OTHER CONTENDERS:
Happy-Go-Lucky, Gran Torino, Defiance


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Danny Boyle – SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2. David Fincher – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
3. Gus Van Sant – MILK
4. Ron Howard – FROST/NIXON
5. Christopher Nolan – THE DARK KNIGHT
6. Sam Mendes – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
7. Stephen Daldry – THE READER
8. Andrew Stanton – WALL-E
9. Mike Leigh – HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
10. Darren Aronofsky – THE WRESTLER

OTHER CONTENDERS:
John Patrick Shanley – DOUBT, Jonathon Demme – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, Clint Eastwood – THE CHANGELING/GRAN TORINO

Here’s a look back on how I did with my early list (late September!) last year.

PICTURE:
1. Atonement (yes!)
2. No Country for Old Men (yes!)
3. Charlie Wilson’s War
4. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. American Gangster
6. The Kite Runner
7. Into the Wild
8. There Will be Blood (yes!)
9. In the Valley of Elah
10. Sweeney Todd

And I totally missed Juno and Michael Clayton. D’oh!

DIRECTOR:
1. Joel and Ethan Coen (yup!)
2. Joe Wright
3. Ridley Scott
4. Mike Nichols
5. David Cronenberg
6. Paul Thomas Anderson (yup!)
7. Francis Ford Coppola
8. Tim Burton
9. Sean Penn
10. Marc Forster
Other Contenders: Julian Schnabel (yup!)

Once again, I totally missed the whole Michael Clayton and Juno thing. That kind of messed up my numbers. But it was early in the year, this year should be better, given how late in the season it is.

The Curtain Closes on Another Year

So, it was a good year. I got 18 out of 24 correct. That was a perfect 8/8 in the major categories (my against-the-grain actress picks paid off!), 4/6 in the "other" types of films categories, and 6/10 in the technical categories (which was pretty much the fault of me betting on Transformers!). I actually won the predicttheoscars.com contest, which is awesome. And I guess I'll get a $50 gift card to show for that. Yea me!

I have two more blogs that I have to post to officially finish off this year and move on to the next. First, I'll finally write up my personal top ten pictures of the year. I always like to wait until this time of year so I will have had time to see plenty of the big films and the dust has settled from all the awards' hype.

Lastly, I'll put up my crazy, super early prediction for next year. That's always one of my favorite things to do.

My Final Predictions

So, it all boils down to this – my final predictions. Feel free to use them in your pool, if you are so inclined. This year was a combination of obvious (Best Actor) and perplexing (Best Supporting Actress). We shall see if I leaned enough in the right direction to do well this year. So, without further ado…

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

What Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Why: It’s a strong year, but there are just too many signs that point in this direction. The trifecta of the DGA, PGA, and SAG haven’t lined up like this since The Return of the King. The only people voting against it are trying to be that ‘one guy who predicted the upset’. I don’t have the guts to try and be that.


BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman – Juno
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Who Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men

Why: Not only did they win the DGA, you can come to this conclusion by process of elimination. Gilroy and Reitman are honored by the nomination. Anderson and Schnabel are great, but they are newer to the business. They don’t have resumes to match the Coens yet. So, I think it’s theirs; and very well earned.


BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortenson – Eastern Promises

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood

Why: No one else even comes close. I think he’s an even bigger shoe-in then Helen Mirren last year.


BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno

Who Will Win: Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose

Why: This is a hard category. The only think we can be sure of is that Blanchett will not win in this category. Linney and Page will probably be left out for “light” work – and they’ll have chances in the future. That leaves Christie and Cotillard. I think the Academy likes to see lead actresses suffer and no one suffered like Cotillard.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men

Why: Affleck and Hoffman are definitely also-rans. Wilkinson’s part is showy but small. Holbrook is the sentimental choice, but I think people have been charmed by Bardem.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

Why: This is so hard, but I’m going for the Binoche play. In a category where all five nominees are going to get a lot of votes you have to lean toward the nominees from the best pictures (the ones people will have seen). Between Ronan and Swinton, I think voters will go for Swinton – a worthy actress.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Who Will Win: Juno

Why: I was going to be brave and go for Michael Clayton, since I think there is a lot of love for the film. But the screenplay for Juno stands out so much that I think it will muscle through.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Why: This is actually a difficult category. I think Away from Her is out and Diving Bell, Blood, and Atonement are all more visual films than "writerly". So, that leaves us with another one for No Country.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: There Will Be Blood

Why: Again, this is a very strong category. The subtle work of Diving Bell and No Country isn’t the sort of thing the Academy usually goes for. Not enough people will see Assassination. The veteran Elswit will beat out the newbie on Atonement like he did at the ASC.


BEST EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Why: This award almost always goes to a picture nominee, and usually the winner. Against Blood, the quicker, more tense No Country will win. So, another imaginary person will win an Oscar. Though watch out for a possible Bourne spoiler - it one the ACE award.


BEST ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: Sweeney Todd

Why: I think it’s between Todd and Atonement. The more artificial, stylized sets for Todd will probable trump the Dunkirk setpiece.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd

Who Will Win: La Vie En Rose

Why: I had a hard time with this one. I know Across the Universe won’t win. Atonement has that awesome green dress, but not much else. Elizabeth and Todd have the most elaborate costumes, but the movies weren’t loved by the Academy, and there was nothing much new. I think people’s love affair with Cotillard will find its way into this category.


BEST MAKEUP
La Vie En Rose
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Norbit

Who Will Win: La Vie End Rose

Why: No one liked the other two movies. Good makeup at the service of a great performance has an advantage – see Ed Wood.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Who Will Win: Transformers

Why: Because they’re more than meets the eye. Hehe. The Golden Compass had some sloppy work and Pirates was mostly repeat of the Part II stuff that already won.


BEST SOUND MIXING
3:10 to Yuma
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Transformers

Who Will Win: Transformers

Why: The loudest usually wins here. So Kevin O’Connell may finally get his Oscar!


BEST SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
Ratatouille
No Country for Old Men
Transformers
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: Transformers

Why: The loudest again, though this category is a little tougher. I think There Will Be Blood could be a potential spoiler.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

Who Will Win: Atonement

Why: It’s by far the most memorable score of the year (excluding There Will Be Blood).


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Falling Slowly” – Once
“Happy Working Song” – Enchanted
“Raise Up” – August Rush
“So Close” – Enchanted
“That’s How You Know” – Enchanted

Who Will Win: “Falling Slowly” – Once

Why: In earlier years I would go for “That’s How You Know”, but the last few years have seen the younger voters overpowering the love of traditional musical and end-of-the-credit ballad numbers.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up

Who Will Win: Ratatouille

Why: Persepolis will get a lot of votes – from those who actually see it. But the genius and success of Brad Bird’s film will triumph.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

Who Will Win: No End in Sight

Why: The popular choice is often the right choice. Throughout the year, No End in Sight has been the most consistently praised of the bunch.


BEST FOREIGN FILM
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Katyn
Mongol
12

Who Will Win: The Counterfeiters

Why: When in doubt, go Holocaust. When you haven’t seen any of the films, and none have been released, go with the consensus.


BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
Meme les Pigeons Vont au Paradis
My Love
Peter and the Wolf

Who Will Win: Madame Tutli Putli

Why: My usually technique with the animated shorts is to go with the silliest name. It’s a surprisingly affective one.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
At Night
Il Supplente
Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman

Who Will Win: Le Mozart des Pickpockets

Why: An interesting title. Also, on a list of predictions from various sources, it had the highest number.


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Freeheld
La Corono
Salim Baba
Sari’s Mother

Who Will Win: Freeheld

Why: The majority of prognosticators are going for it, and I’ll follow.

That’s it. I feel pretty good on most of them. We shall see tomorrow.

The Big Top

I’ve gotten distracted from writing my blog on the picture, director, and writing categories. I found out I got accepted to USC’s MA program in Critical Studies in Film, so I’ve been celebrating. But here we are. There are less that 48 hours to go. So, it’s time to get cracking. I will definitely have my final predictions up tomorrow and hopefully have time for one or two other last minute posts.


BEST PICTURE

ATONEMENT
FOR IT: The classic Oscar film – it’s a period, war, love story lushly photographed and dramatically executed. It won the BAFTA, the progosticater with the highest crossover in membership with the Academy. AGAINST IT: Not a whole lot of enthusiasm. Early buzz turned into indifference. Some people were turned off by the Britishness of the love story. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

JUNO
FOR IT: The crowd pleaser and favorite of the commercially oriented Academy members. AGAINST IT: It’s small and insignificant compared to its stellar competition. It’s been nominated a lot, but it hasn’t won much (other than screenplay – the standard consolation prize for such films). CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR IT: The Hollywood film of the bunch. The traditional Academy member who disliked the violence of No Country and Blood, thought Atonement was overwrought, and Juno slight will vote for it. AGAINST IT: There won’t be enough of those people. It’s just not “grand” enough to be a best picture winner. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR IT: Almost every critics prize and most of the guilds, but most importantly, the Director’s Guild, the Producer’s Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild. It’s so rare for these groups to agree with each other; the support is ridiculously universal. AGAINST IT: Overhype. People may feel it has been rewarded enough. Split votes with Blood. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%

THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR IT: Film buffs widely agree it is a masterpiece – the most original, memorable film in the bunch. It has the grandeur and scope of Citizen Kane, Giant, or 2001… AGAINST IT: None of which won the best picture prize. The Academy isn’t made of critics and film buffs, they are filmmakers. Enjoyment and emotional connection is too important for them to pick such an academic piece. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%


BEST DIRECTOR


Paul Thomas Anderson – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR HIM: This is a director’s accomplishment – a singular vision of an auteur. He’s evolved by leaps and bounds, and the Academy will want to reward that. AGAINST IT: The Academy likes to spread it around. They’ll give this Cinematography and Actor and leave it at that. Many still see him as a cocky young thing who needs to pay more dues. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Joel and Ethan Coen – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR THEM: The DGA is the single best prognosticator. They should have won for Fargo. They have a long, awesome career that the Academy is ready to reward. AGAINST THEM: Teams don’t usually get nominated, let alone win. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Tony Gilroy – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: He made an intelligent, old school yet original legal thriller. Made the leap from writer of big time Hollywood thrillers (The Bourne films) to legitimate director. AGAINST HIM: And the nomination is his reward for that. Not nearly enough of an “auspicious debut” to warrant winning. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Jason Reitman – JUNO
FOR HIM: He’s Hollywood spawn (son of Ivan Reitman) making intelligent, 1970s-style comedies like no one else around. AGAINST HIM: You don’t win for comedy unless you are hugely established, a la Billy Wilder or Woody Allen. Again, nomination = honor. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Julian Schnabel – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
FOR HIM: A real, legitimate artist (as in painter). This film is perfect. Those who didn’t see it in time to vote it in into the picture category may want to make up for it here. AGAINST IT: Enough people probably still didn’t see it. The lone director has a long battle to a win. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Diablo Cody – JUNO
FOR IT: It’s won every single pre-Oscar award possible. Diablo Cody has become a celebrity as much for her backstory as for her well crafted script. The dialog heavy film brings lots of attention to the screenplay. AGAINST IT: Overhype. The script won so many awards mostly out of default – it was an adaptation kind of year. The over attention has lead to a pretty vocal backlash. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%

Nancy Oliver – LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
FOR IT: Oliver managed to make a sweet, subtle film about a man and his blow up doll. AGAINST IT: Few will have seen it, and some who did will have hated it. This is a filler nomination in a weak year. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Tony Gilroy – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR IT: It’s a best picture nominee from a writer-director. Juno-haters will gravitate to this mature, intelligent piece. Awesome dialog in the various confrontation scenes. AGAINST IT: Only the Juno momentum. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Brad Bird – RATATOUILLE
FOR IT: The rare animation screenplay with a single author. Writer-director Bird was also nominated for The Incredibles. Surprisingly thoughtful and mature. AGAINST IT: A few of the narrative seams show from the rush job. People aren’t ready to give it to a cartoon yet. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Tamara Jenkins – THE SAVAGES
FOR IT: Probably the most personal, and personally relatable story nominated. I think it’s also probably the best screenplay in the bunch. So will most people who see it.. AGAINST IT: Which will be very few people. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Christopher Hampton – ATONEMENT
FOR IT: Hampton has been widely praised for adapting what many thought was unadaptable. He maintained the complex structure and ideas without making it a jumble. He won previously for his adaptation of Dangerous Liaisons. AGAINST IT: People still say it’s not as good as the book, a hard hurdle to pass. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Sarah Polley - AWAY FROM HER
FOR IT: Critics were shocked at the maturity and expertise the 20-something actress showed in writing and directing her first film. AGAINST IT: It’s not a major contender. The nomination is the reward. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Ronald Harwood – THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
FOR IT: He took an abstract autobiographical novel about living with locked-in syndrom and made a coherent, moving, thoughtful story. He won previously for The Pianist. A last minute surge for the film could bring him along. AGAINST IT: Foreign-language scripts, especially one made mostly of letter sounds and voiceover, have a hard time getting through to voters. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Joel and Ethan Coen – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR IT: The Coens are known for their sparkling dialog, amazing set pieces, and complex structure – all on display here (much like their previously winning Fargo). It won all the awards including the WGA. AGAINST IT: Some silent passages and hate for the ending. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Paul Thomas Anderson – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR IT: The writing award is often the consolation prize for voters’ second choice film. The epic structure, and just the right kind of crazy ending show both the audacity and expertise of his writing. AGAINST IT: The lack of dialog in the first act and through many parts of the film will work against it. Unfortunately, even those who should know better equate dialog to screenplay. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Emoting for Gold

The acting categories are interesting this year. The actors are locked – if Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem don’t win, it will be a shocker. But the ladies are wide open. Best Actress has an early frontrunner (Christie), a late-breaking frontrunner (Cotillard), a favorite (Page), and a dark horse (Linney). Supporting Actress has FIVE worthy contenders, who have all won pre-Oscar awards and buzz. Very frustrating. So, it may be helpful to weigh the pros and cons of each.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: People say it’s his best work ever. Nominated for every major pre-Oscar award. Lots of support for the film, especially for the acting. AGAINST HIM: He just won two years ago. Um, he’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Daniel Day-Lewis – THERE WILL BE BLOOD
FOR HIM: Every single pre-Oscar award – BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe, etc. Long considered one of the greatest actors living. An iconic role. Beautiful acceptance speeches that show genuine gratitude, humility, and appreciation. AGAINST HIM: Maybe a little envy or backlash. CHANCES OF WINNING: 60%

Johnny Depp – SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
FOR HIM: Three nominations in the last five years and a twenty-year career the Academy is just aching to reward. He took on a difficult singing role and proved his mettle. AGAINST HIM: Not a lot of love for the film. The character was supremely unlikable. He’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Tommy Lee Jones – IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
FOR HIM: The third nomination for the veteran actor. His most subtle, complex work in years. People may want to reward him for his work in No Country as well. AGAINST HIM: He’s won already. The film was mostly ignored. He’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Viggo Mortensen – EASTERN PROMISES
FOR HIM: This is the first nomination in an awesome career. He wrestles a dude naked, does a difficult accent, and had tattoos painted on everyday. AGAINST HIM: It’s not his year, because he’s not Daniel Day-Lewis. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
FOR HER: It’s a powerhouse performance for the greatest actress of this generation. She should have won for the first Elizabeth. AGAINST HER: People hated this movie. She’s got a better performance nominated in the supporting category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Julie Christie – AWAY FROM HER
FOR HER: A legend with four nominations. Her portrayal of an Alzheimer’s patient has won her most of the pre-Oscar awards – SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe. AGAINST HER: The buzz has died down since her lackluster speech at the SAG Awards, which unfortunately came a couple minutes after Day-Lewis’s tribute to Heath Ledger. She’s won before. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Marion Cotillard – LA VIE EN ROSE
FOR HER: The buzz. She’s been the late breaking contender, winning the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Once people actually see the film, it’s hard for them to vote against her portrayal of Edith Piaf from age 20 to 47. AGAINST HER: Love for Miss Christie. Did enough people see it in time? CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Laura Linney – THE SAVAGES
FOR HER: This is the third nomination for one of the most respected, mature actresses around. She goes to new places, unafraid of appearing vulnerable and pathetic. AGAINST HER: The film is probably too small and light to get people to see and vote for it. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Ellen Page – JUNO
FOR HER: Love for the film, and her unique, intelligent performance. The sense that this is a star-making performance. AGAINST HER: She’s young and it’s a comedy. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck – THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES…
FOR HIM: A banner year with this film and Gone Baby Gone. AGAINST HIM: He’s young, it’s his first nomination, and he’s proved to be a bit low on personality during the award season. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

Javier Bardem – NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
FOR HIM: Almost all of the pre-Oscar awards. The only nominated performance in the biggest best picture contender. He’s been awesome at the award shows, adding just enough humor to go along with Day-Lewis’s thoughtfulness. AGAINST HIM: Overhype, maybe. CHANCES OF WINNING: 45%

Philip Seymour Hoffman – CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
FOR HIM: He stole every scene from the two biggest stars of the last two decades. AGAINST HIM: A comedic role in a film with no other nominations. He just won two years ago. Absent from the award season activities. CHANCES OF WINNING: 5%

Hal Holbrook – INTO THE WILD
FOR HIM: The sentimental choice. A heartbreaking role for a veteran actor with no previous Oscar attention. AGAINST HIM: Little support for the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Tom Wilkinson – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HIM: A meaty, crazy role in a best picture contender. The veteran character actor has yet to win. AGAINST HIM: There’s another actor with a meatier, crazier role in a bigger best picture contender. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – I’M NOT THERE
FOR HER: Many pre-Oscar awards, lots of buzz. She’s considered one of the greatest actresses around, and she reached new heights playing a version of Bob Dylan. Won the Golden Globe. AGAINST HER: She just won in this category three years ago. Some see it as mere imitation, or didn’t see this strange movie at all. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Ruby Dee – AMERICAN GANGSTER
FOR HER: The sentimental choice. This is the first nomination for the veteran actress and civil rights activist. She steals every scene. Won the SAG. AGAINST HER: She’s only in two or three scenes – five minutes of screen time. She’s played this role for decades. (See: Jungle Fever, Do the Right Thing) The film didn’t get nominated much. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Saoirse Ronan - ATONEMENT
FOR HER: A breakthrough performance for a young actress is often awarded in this category. She shows maturity beyond her years. AGAINST HER: She’s young and everyone knows she’s got the lead in the Lovely Bones next year. She’ll have plenty of opportunities. (I hope!) CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

Amy Ryan – GONE BABY GONE
FOR HER: A veteran of the stage and the amazing television show The Wire makes the transition to big screen stardom with a splash. She won almost all the early awards including the Critics Choice. AGAINST HER: The buzz seems to have faded a bit. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Tilda Swinton – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR HER: Surprisingly, the first nomination for the strange and captivating British actress. She surprised everyone by winning the BAFTA. Everyone will have actually seen this film, since it’s a picture contender. AGAINST HER: The BAFTAs probably came too late. She’s kind of strange. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

THOSE OTHER CATEGORIES

These categories are sometimes hard to assess. Not as many people have seen the foreign and documentary films, and it’s sometimes hard to assess the chances of a song or score. But here is my attempt to do just that. I’ll put up the actors tomorrow and writing/directing/picture up on Wednesday. If I get a chance to see the shorts, I’ll write about them later this week.

BEST FOREIGN LANUAGE FILM

Beaufort
FOR IT: Israel’s gotten seven nominations over the years, but never won. Variety calls it “sparse but powerful”. AGAINST IT: The big movie from Israel this year was The Band’s Visit, which was declared ineligible because it had too much English. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

The Counterfeiters
FOR IT: Only the second nominee from Austria. EW predicts a win for this story of concentration camp prisoners forced to make counterfeit money by the Nazis. AGAINST IT: Being the frontrunner doesn’t mean much in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

Katyn
FOR IT: Polish Director Andrzei Wajda is a legend who already has an honorary Oscar for lifetime achievement to his name. But he has never won for a competitive Oscar. Variety calls the story of the Russian massacre of thousands of Poles during WWII an “academic master class”. AGAINST IT: Reviews say it lacks the emotional immediacy that it should have. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%

Mongol
FOR IT: Kazakhstan’s first nominated film came in with the highest awareness of any. It’s an epic about the younger years of Genghis Khan. Variety calls it a “beautifully mounted actioner”. AGAINST IT: Early recognition does mean much when you have to see all five films to be allowed to vote. Action films don’t usually thrive in this category. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%

12
FOR IT: The fifth (or 14th if you count the USSR) nomination for Russia. The story is basically twelve angry men judging a Chechen while really revealing all of the current problems of Russia. Variety calls it “expansive, dramatic, magnificent”. AGAINST IT: A low-profile entry. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No End in Sight
FOR IT: The most critically acclaimed documentary of the year – and not a slouch at the box office. It is largely considered to be one of the most thoughtful, non-partisan, well researched films on the war in Iraq so far. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 30%

Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
FOR IT: Like Letters from Home but for Iraq instead of Vietnam. The war told from the soldier’s point of view. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. The higher profile No End in Sight. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Sicko
FOR IT: Previous winner Michael Moore gets a little more personal, taking on the American health care system. The highest grossing film in the bunch. Has more to do with the current battle for the presidency than the war films. AGAINST IT: Moore fatigue. The sense that this is a minor film for him. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 20%

Taxi to the Dark Side
FOR IT: From the previous nominees from Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, a look at the treatment of political prisoners by Americans in Afghanistan. The WGA Award. AGAINST IT: War fatigue. This stuff doesn’t make you happy to be an American. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

War/Dance
FOR IT: Children at a refugee camp in northern Uganda prepare to enter a music competition. Delves into the lives of sadly affected children in places we often forget about. AGAINST IT: The sad truth is, we ignore these situations and focus more on our own concerns. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Persepolis
FOR IT: The most serious of the contenders. The beautifully hand animated story of a young woman’s life in revolutionary Iran. Simply stunning. AGAINST IT: Some people still won’t take an animated drama seriously. It’s a small film and in French. CHANCES OF WINNING: 35%

Ratatouille
FOR IT: The most mature and beautiful Pixar film yet. Brad Bird is an animation auteur. Film people can relate to the plot about leaving your family to pursue your artistic dreams. Simply breathtaking. AGAINST IT: A couple awkward moments in the script (which went through several phases). CHANCES OF WINNING: 55%

Surf’s Up
FOR IT: Um, well, the member’s kids probably liked it. AGAINST IT: It’s a piece of puff, with mediocre reviews and box office up against two major artistic achievements. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dario Marianelli – ATONEMENT
FOR IT: The most talked about score of the year, besides Johnny Greenwood’s ineligible There Will Be Blood work. The interweaving of the score and the sound in the film was awesome. AGAINST IT: The score does bring a lot of attention to itself, a quality some people detest. CHANCES OF WINNING: 40%

Alberto Iglesias – THE KITE RUNNER
FOR IT: The only nomination for a film that was thought it be a picture contender early on. Iglesias was nominated for his Constant Gardener score before. AGAINST IT: It’s the film's only nomination – meaning, no one saw it. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

James Newton Howard – MICHAEL CLAYTON
FOR IT: This is Howard’s seventh nomination without a win. Subtle work in a best picture contender. AGAINST IT: Subtle doesn’t win Oscars. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

Michael Giacchino – RATATOUILLE
FOR IT: This French-tinged score was heavenly. Giacchino should have been nominated for his iconic work on The Incredibles. AGAINST IT: More sweet than soaring. Not a best picture contender. Composers rarely win on their first nomination. CHANCES OF WINNING: 20%

Marco Beltrami – 3:10 TO YUMA
FOR IT: The first nomination for the genre picture “IT” boy. His score was memorable – lots of reference to the classic western scores. AGAINST IT: It’s just not high profile enough. He’s new to this club. CHANCES OF WINNING: 15%


BEST SONG

“Falling Slowly” – ONCE
FOR IT: The only nomination from a critically acclaimed film that people took seriously. The song is an important part of the story in the film. AGAINST IT: Subtle, folky, indie rock don’t usually appeal to the older Academy members. CHANCES OF WINNING: 30%

“Happy Working Song” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: With 18(!) nominations and 8(!) wins, Alan Menken is Academy royalty. His spoofs of classic Disney song types were universally praised. AGAINST IT: But it’s got competition from two other songs from the film. CHANCES OF WINNING: 10%

“Raise It Up” – August Rush
FOR IT: It doesn’t have the genre hurdles of “Falling Slowly” or the split voting of the Enchanted songs. So, it could just win by default. It’s a big, uplifting type song. AGAINST IT: It’s kinda cheesy. The movie wasn't very good. First time nominees. CHANCES OF WINNING 20%

“So Close” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: This is the serious love song from Enchanted. So maybe people will take it more seriously. AGAINST IT: Or not. It doesn’t have the cleverness of the other nominees. CHANCES FOR WINNING: 15%

“That’s How You Know” – ENCHANTED
FOR IT: The most well-known of the songs from Enchanted, since it was in the ads. Therefore, the most likely from the film to win. AGAINST IT: Split vote. CHANCES OF WINNING: 25%